Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[wsushox1]

It's early, but might be time for another drinkypoo...

"Another" ;)

[im4wsu]

Kansas is, admittedly, one of the exceptions. Look at Mississippi for an example of a state that is not.

This source does not define "hospitalizations, per se, but does have a category "serious/critical," which may be nearly equivalent. So here is the day-to-day change in the numbers. It appears that there maybe some data error in the 4/27 to 4/30 period.

hospital0503.png

[ShockerFever]

On March 24th you emphatically told us that we had 10,000,000 infections, and to think otherwise took a leap of faith and we were being "irresponsible".



Well let's use the ACTUAL day-to-day growth rate of reported cases during the quarantine period, to get a sense of it ...

Date	Cold Infections	Reported Case Growth
24-Mar	10,000,000	23.2
25-Mar	12,320,000	23.2
26-Mar	15,178,240	26.3
27-Mar	19,170,117	23.2
28-Mar	23,617,584	19.9
29-Mar	28,317,484	15.8
30-Mar	32,791,646	14.6
31-Mar	37,579,226	15.7
1-Apr	43,479,165	14.4
2-Apr	49,740,165	13.6
3-Apr	56,504,827	13.5
4-Apr	64,132,979	12.3
5-Apr	72,021,335	8.4
6-Apr	78,071,127	8.8
7-Apr	84,941,386	8.4
8-Apr	92,076,463	8.2
9-Apr	99,626,733	8.0
10-Apr	107,596,871	7.3
11-Apr	115,451,443	6.5
12-Apr	122,955,787	5.3
13-Apr	129,472,443	4.5
14-Apr	135,298,703	4.5
15-Apr	141,387,145	4.9
16-Apr	148,315,115	5.1
17-Apr	155,879,186	4.6
18-Apr	163,049,628	4.0
19-Apr	169,571,614	3.6
20-Apr	175,676,192	3.3
21-Apr	181,473,506	3.3
22-Apr	187,462,132	3.6
23-Apr	194,210,768	3.9
24-Apr	201,784,988	4.2
25-Apr	210,259,958	3.9
26-Apr	218,460,096	2.9
27-Apr	224,795,439	2.3
28-Apr	229,965,734	2.5
29-Apr	235,714,877	2.6
30-Apr	241,843,464	2.9
1-May	248,856,925	3.1
2-May	256,571,489	2.8
3-May	263,755,491	2.3

If we had 10,000,000 infections on Mar 24, we would predict about 263,755,491 infections today.

However now you are saying you seriously doubt we have 32,000,000 infections.

Which is it?

lol

5 million dead by the end of April was also another memorable line.

[wufan]

lol

5 million dead by the end of April was also another memorable line.

Off by a couple of logs...just like the number infected. No shame for cold though. We are all aware that he has a certain flair for hyperbole. See Ehimen Orukpe and Casey Crawford.

[RoyalShock]

[wufan]

We had our first positive case at my place of employment. He was asymptomatic at the time of the testing Wednesday last week and has remained asymptomatic as of today. There are ~ 2000 employees where I work, so it is likely there are others of which we aren’t aware.

[wufan]

Gilead Pharmaceutical has submitted their notice of intent to manufacture Remdisovir at Pfizer McPherson! Hoping to be a part of the solution to the pandemic!

[wufan]

Drug shortages for Covid critical drugs is showing. We are barely able to deliver demand for the pharmaceuticals that are considered necessary for emergent treatment due to infections (not shut downs) at API manufacturing sites.

My understanding is that there is greater demand for these drugs than the market can bare in the short term. As of now, there isn’t any shortage for non-Covid drug manufacture as the capacity to manufacture at current market demand still exists and these industries are considered critical worldwide.

[Kung Wu]

lol

5 million dead by the end of April was also another memorable line.

In fairness I have a pretty bad take somewhere back at the beginning of the crisis thinking Italy's death number would trounce ours. Eeesh

[Shockm]

In fairness I have a pretty bad take somewhere back at the beginning of the crisis thinking Italy's death number would trounce ours. Eeesh

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/

Does anyone believe that China doesn’t belong on this list?

Also, we are taking each countries word for the statistics. I have read from some sources, that the US counts every death as caronavirus when there are underlying conditions for example, a heart attack is counted as caronavirus in the US where other countries aren’t counting it the same.

[wufan]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/

Does anyone believe that China doesn’t belong on this list?

Also, we are taking each countries word for the statistics. I have read from some sources, that the US counts every death as caronavirus when there are underlying conditions for example, a heart attack is counted as caronavirus in the US where other countries aren’t counting it the same.

Death reporting varies for this as with many things. For instance, most European countries don’t factor in infant mortality into their life expectancy. The US does.

[wufan]

You know, since I’ve followed this since virtually the beginning, for better or worse, it has just reinforced my bias against government agency statistical analysis. It demonstrates that as the data set changes, you can do about anything you want with the numbers and “hide” the fact that the data inputs have been altered. I think it’s why I’m so anti-climate alarmism.

Sorry for the minor political detour. It just fit here. I won’t expound or respond further.

[C0|dB|00ded]

You guys seriously need to stop trolling! You know that stuff will never work on me. I'm eternally undefeated.

Well... except in the case of forum administrators... *ahem*


So... I stand by every single comment or action I took in this fine thread. My intentions were likely not clear to all and that's okay. What I was NOT trying to do was win the "guess the weight of the fat bald lady at the carnival" contest. At the time of my posts there was no clear indication of what we were facing beyond what we knew from China propaganda and a smattering of infections across the country. I did happen to be influenced by a panel of "infectious disease experts" speaking solemnly as they compared the R0 of influenza to Covid-19. They said based on current evidence it spread at a rate 4x that of influenza in nursing homes (flu: 1 infects 7; C-19: 1 infects 28). It was clear that we were dealing with something other than "the flu".

If you'll reference back to my early posts I indicated that IF my hunch was correct and we had 10's of thousands of cases already spreading in the Sedgwick Country area and 10's of millions in the U.S. it will become evident by the ER admissions. The hospital(s) were obviously thinking along the same lines as myself as they completely cleared their pediatric wing preparing for the "rush" that never happened. To be totally fair, my assumptions were not entirely my own as you will easily be able to source. I was merely parroting the mindset of several of the great infections disease specialists in our country; namely, Dr. Fauci. You'll remember his quote: "If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing." Sound logic.

The main intent of my posts were to make sure that anybody being influenced by some of the growing dismissive narrative on here (fueled by right-wing talk show hosts) towards the pandemic, had a dissenting take upon which to reflect and make up their own minds. Of course I also had selfish interests in that the more people who were either smart, or scared "smart", and broke the chain of infections by taking themselves out of the bars, restaurants, stores, and churches for a few weeks, would not only be possibly saving the lives of my friends and family, but also countless others of whom I will never meet. Just simple logic folks... and a little game theory.

Fast forward to today and we have a few more statistics upon which we can base our projections. I posted a little easy math identifying a possible pathway (of death) depending on what number you would plug in for current infected. I was hoping someone would actually comment on the numbers I posted as I cannot find a hole in the premise. The only weakness I can come up with is if we find out the asymptomatic cases are in excess of 50%. In that situation my numbers will not play out (ceteris paribus - with no influence of vaccines, therapies, or beneficial mutations). I think the reality is a very large percentage of the U.S. must eventually be exposed to this insidious bug whether it takes 3 mos. (hopefully not) or 3 years (still not something to look forward to).

One thing you must know about me (when I'm being serious) is I am not afraid to look at the facts. I am a natural risk manager. Folks like myself will always have a negative slant on things because my mind seeks to identify all possible negative outcomes in a situation and quickly ascertain risk/reward. They say ignorance is bliss and I agree with that and have often fantasized about having that "gift". Unfortunately... I was given a different one. When I was quite young I found the soothing words of my father ("everything is going to be okay") quite satisfying, but as I matured and reached "oldhood", I found that a better way for me was maintaining a firm grasp on reality - even when the subject is very disturbing. I've also learned that for many, this approach is too stressful. In the case of "100 year" pandemics where incredibly negative outcomes can only be recognized after it's too late... I submit to you that it pays to err on the safe (dark) side.

Signed,


The Death Angel


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[C0|dB|00ded]

I'm just sitting here imagining someone reading my dissertation (wall-o-text) on their phone and I'm laughing my ass off. Apologies in advance.


T


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[C0|dB|00ded]

Off by a couple of logs...just like the number infected. No shame for cold though. We are all aware that he has a certain flair for hyperbole. See Ehimen Orukpe and Casey Crawford.

Pretty basic math really. The knowledge (China) at the time was a 3% death rate and it had just thrashed a West Coast nursing home quite thoroughly. This was not a prediction, this was a high estimate. 200-250M infected * .03 = 6-7M dead. That indeed was the ultimate high side and it was presented to the Administration.

Again, I didn't come to win a prize, I came to alarm. The only play was to social distance until we could better understand the enemy. No other move made sense. Folks in here talked like "it ain't no thang". I wouldn't understand that logic if I lived to be 100. Too much risk for too little reward (Internet pandemic guessing game hero status for a few weeks notwithstanding). This wasn't a game to me; it also wasn't political. So I came in, spun my spin and then slept like a baby.


T


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