Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

There's a glimmer of hope -- possibly a day or 20 too early -- but the day-to-day exponent fell below 1.02 for the first time in my data, and there has been a 7 day down trend in new cases.

decay.PNG

Note: Even 1.018 is still indicates some substantial growth, however it appears to be trending in the right direction. Let's hope and pray for New York!

Can anybody confirm they are seeing something similar?

407 new cases and 19 deaths yesterday in Louisiana.

[Kung Wu]

407 new cases and 19 deaths yesterday in Louisiana.

Yeah, LA could become a new hot spot, unfortunately.

[SB Shock]

There's a glimmer of hope -- possibly a day or 20 too early -- but the day-to-day exponent fell below 1.02 for the first time in my data, and there has been a 7 day down trend in new cases.

decay.PNG

Note: Even 1.018 is still indicates some substantial growth, however it appears to be trending in the right direction. Let's hope and pray for New York!

Can anybody confirm they are seeing something similar?

So I am tracking growth factor (ratio of today new cases with yesterday new cases). Growth factor less 1 - in decline. Growth factor greater than 1 - increasing.

growth factor.jpg

[ShockerFever]

407 new cases and 19 deaths yesterday in Louisiana.

Unfortunately that’s what happens with a week of partying with lots of people in a relatively small area at the outbreak onset.

[WstateU]

Unfortunately that’s what happens with a week of partying with lots of people in a relatively small area at the outbreak onset.

Yikes!

[CBB_Fan]

Testing not only reduces the death rate by finding the asymptomatic or early infections, it gives those people the information they need to make intelligent medical decisions regarding interactions with the public.

Find them, and they don't infect half the town and you hopefully prevent the virus from clearing out nursing homes and other vulnerable portions of the population. Don't, and it gets dire quickly.

It also important to understand that any figures we get are likely to be at least 4-5 days behind the 'actual number' and potentially even farther, given the incubation period and time to get testing results. A lot of pessimism comes from the fact that even with the measures taken over the last week, we may still have 6-14 days of exponential growth we won't see reflected in the data yet.

Even past that, the disease doesn't instantly progress to the worst case scenario, so someone with mild symptoms today may be admitted to a hospital a week from now. In Wuhan, it the disease typically had mild symptoms after 4-5 days, progressed to hospitalization in severe cases by day 11, moved to ICU admittance by day 15, and recovered around day 21.

For example, at the rate NYC was progressing we'd expect to see cases double as many as 4 times (x16) before curve flattening measures can be seen. And then we have to go through another 10 days to see hospitalizations hit their peak, and another week for those that recover to stop taking hospital resources.

[MelvinLoudermilk]

Pornhub gives NYC coronavirus workers 50K masks — and free porn. lol


https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/pornhu...ium=SocialFlow

[WstateU]

Pornhub gives NYC coronavirus workers 50K masks — and free porn. lol


https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/pornhu...ium=SocialFlow

Just when you think you've seen and heard it all, someone totally redeems themselves...

“With nearly one billion people in lockdown across the world because of the coronavirus pandemic, it’s important that we lend a hand and provide them with an enjoyable way to pass the time,” Pornhub vice president Corey Price said in a statement."

[ShockerFever]

Just wanna say I appreciate Kung Wu, SB, and everyone else for putting together some non-sensational facts and presenting it to us instead of a few who are just flapping their gums.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

That is quite the pessimistic take. The measures we are taking should make your scenario non-existent. I don’t know that any of the data out there supports this except in a do nothing scenario.

And you may be right, in fact, I'm inclined to agree with you given the difference in tone from Gov. Cuomo between yesterday and today (did he get some good news from his public health people?). I'm also factoring in the lack of social distancing we have observed at Florida & Texas beaches, Mardi Gras and all the gathering that was going on in downtown Manhattan..

Given Mardi Gras was two weeks ago and seeing what La. is going through right now, it is not impossible to imagine a much worse scenario in another week or so when the Spring Breakers spread starts (if it does), I'm kind of baking it in, let's hope I'm wrong. Note my thought is that the problems in Italy were precisely because the medical facilities were overwhelmed there.

[C0|dB|00ded]

BTW, if Cold is right and 10,000,000 of us have it already but only 675 have died from it at this point, then it's about 675/10,000,000 = 0.0000675 = 0.00675% <--- So we just crashed the economy for something a fraction of the problem of flu (1/14th).

And if Cold is right and that 1/30th of the population already has it, then we should project that 100% of us will have it and the total deaths will be 670 x 30 = 21,300 -- so why are we locking down states again?

Sooooooo yeah.

Ummm... if Cold is right and there are 10 million infected across America at this point, we will be yielding 50,000 to 200,000 deaths (.05%-2%) over the next roughly 21 days. Also, if Cold is right, and quarantine measures are not sufficient, that infected number could jump to 20 million in roughly 6 more days, 40 million in 6 more, etc., etc.

Again, you can't take any current infected estimate and calculate it against current deaths. An infectious outbreak grows exponentially (or would it be more clear to say sneaky-late-quick?) and what you see today is already 2 weeks old news. It is an invisible enemy that can only be tracked AFTER crucial time to act has passed. All we can do is hunker down and stop infecting each other and hope for the best. We won't know if we overreacted or underreacted until it's too late to do anything about it. We must overreact (early react?) now because that is the correct strategic move.

This isn't about winning bets or being right. I'm hoping beyond all hope that my (and many other's estimates) are off and somehow this virus has miraculously stayed confined to little bitty pockets even though it has blanketed the United States. That would be an illogical assumption, but it would be the only way my estimate of roughly 3% (10M) infected (at this point) could be wrong.

Our local hospitals are cleared out and waiting for the flood that they all expect to see. Let's hope for a miracle.


And again, if you haven't watched the ENTIRE following video, please do so (that goes for you Kung). It very clearly explains what I (and the CDC) are trying to convey.

https://www.facebook.com/itsokaytobe...3119293379367/

"Everything looks fine, until it isn't fine."


This is why we have to temporarily hurt the economy by keeping people home and why it is right to do so.


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[C0|dB|00ded]

Just wanna say I appreciate Kung Wu, SB, and everyone else for putting together some non-sensational facts and presenting it to us instead of a few who are just flapping their gums.

I'm glad the "non-sensational" stuff is making you feel better. Maybe you feel good enough to take the kid out to Chucky Cheese tonight?

While you guys are working hard to soothe your fears, the experts in charge of this situation will be preparing for the worst.

The only reason I came on these threads to post was because of the ridiculously uninformed and irresponsible narrative that was being spun. It's been a political talking point amongst several conservative radio talk show hosts and not surprisingly started poisoning these threads. I figured if I shared a little wisdom coming straight from the medical community, it might matter. Hopefully it did.

Stay safe everyone!


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[MelvinLoudermilk]

Two Stanford Doctor’s of Medicine offer an interesting opinion:
Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

[C0|dB|00ded]

Testing not only reduces the death rate by finding the asymptomatic or early infections, it gives those people the information they need to make intelligent medical decisions regarding interactions with the public.

Find them, and they don't infect half the town and you hopefully prevent the virus from clearing out nursing homes and other vulnerable portions of the population. Don't, and it gets dire quickly.

It also important to understand that any figures we get are likely to be at least 4-5 days behind the 'actual number' and potentially even farther, given the incubation period and time to get testing results. A lot of pessimism comes from the fact that even with the measures taken over the last week, we may still have 6-14 days of exponential growth we won't see reflected in the data yet.

Even past that, the disease doesn't instantly progress to the worst case scenario, so someone with mild symptoms today may be admitted to a hospital a week from now. In Wuhan, it the disease typically had mild symptoms after 4-5 days, progressed to hospitalization in severe cases by day 11, moved to ICU admittance by day 15, and recovered around day 21.

For example, at the rate NYC was progressing we'd expect to see cases double as many as 4 times (x16) before curve flattening measures can be seen. And then we have to go through another 10 days to see hospitalizations hit their peak, and another week for those that recover to stop taking hospital resources.

Logical and factual.

The thing that the doctor's and nurses are afraid of is the collateral damage that comes with the hospitals being overwhelmed by Covid patients. We've got to get the Covid people into mass temporary hospitals if this gets ugly so there is still a little room for the "normal" patients who take up 75% of the ICU beds on any given day in America. They need critical care and need to be able to receive it without the bonus Covid infection while they are admitted.

So many horrific scenarios that I haven't even spoken about. I don't even think I'm being "doom and gloom" at all.

I apologize in advance to those I've scared further. Someone will come along and post death rate numbers of .0000001234 in a few seconds.

Please stay away from others for a few weeks.

I think this is my last post on the subject. I gave it the ol' college try in hopes of saving a few Shockernetters.

I do hope this pandemic gets killed off sooner rather than later. :(

Good luck and stay safe!


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[jdmee]

Cold it will be ok. No need to commit harakiri just yet.