Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[SB Shock]

So now all of the new talk is centered around the "Second Wave" coming in the fall and winter. So with that said, shouldn't we be seeing a spike in cases and deaths in southern hemisphere countries right now or is only the United States and northern hemisphere nations prone to it?

Could be several reasons.

1. SeCond wave talk could be the CDC and company worst fear so they want to get out in front. More will remember if their is a second wave and they didn’t not say anything verses if it didn’t and they did say something. And of course the media loves fear mongering.

2. Reporting in the South America (or even India) may not Be at the same level/detail/ accuracy as u might find in USA and Europe. So maybe it is worse than the numbers might show.

3. Some of the countries have seen what has been happening and may have gotten ahead and are staying on top of it. One of my coworkers is from Chile, and Chile locked down about the same time as the USA. They took draconian measures. You have to get approval to leave your house to go to the store.

4. Brazil is facing increasing covid-19, so maybe it just starting to ramp up.

[ShockerFever]

Why?

The reports about throwing every death that comes through being covid. Also the switch to “probable” cases being counted which completely messes up the previous data. I know you said they do the same thing with flu but that doesn’t make it any less dumb. If they want to be taken seriously with numbers and science, I would think accuracy would be a top priority.

[ShockerFever]

2. Reporting in the South America (or even India) may not Be at the same level/detail/ accuracy as u might find in USA and Europe. So maybe it is worse than the numbers might show.

Australia is pretty first world, isn’t it?

[wsushox1]

The reports about throwing every death that comes through being covid. Also the switch to “probable” cases being counted which completely messes up the previous data. I know you said they do the same thing with flu but that doesn’t make it any less dumb. If they want to be taken seriously with numbers and science, I would think accuracy would be a top priority.

I would think medical professionals in NYC have enough experience with COVID deaths that they can, with relative success, assign COVID-19 as a cause of death. BUT Even if you take out the "probable" deaths and only count those with a positive COVID-19 test - you still have an infection fatality rate in NYC (assuming every single person in NYC has had COVID, which they haven't) of .11%. If you assume that half of NYC has had COVID-19 you get to an infection fatality rate of .22%, and so forth.

Anyone saying the true fatality rate is less than .1% is basing their assumption on every single person in NYC having contracted COVID-19.

Let me be clear before I make this last statement: no one here is making the following argument. Some people will undoubtedly begin to make the argument that not as many people died as what was actually recorded. All you have to do is look to how some people treat the holocaust death numbers.

[SB Shock]

Australia is pretty first world, isn’t it?

Australia is definitely a country to watch as they move into fall and winter to see if they have a reemergence. Australia is another one of those countries that acted quickly. Their covid rise occurred similar timeframe as Europe and U.S. and their response was:


1. Shutting down all their borders (no foreigners in)
2. Limited public gatherings
3. Tested early and often.
4. Contact tracing (all close contacts were then ordered to quarantine for 2 weeks).
5. Overseas travel of their citizens banned.
6. Australians who returned from overseas had to go into quarantine for 2 weeks.
7. People can only leave their houses to go for food or exercise.

[ShockerDropOut]

Looking at these numbers, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ , Kansas has the lowest testing rate in the country. I am not sure why or what it means, but it is interesting. Does anyone have insight into the cause and how significant do you feel this is? Are we getting any type of false confidence from this?

[wufan]

What the thread is stating, is that they calculated their confidence interval (an interval where you can be 95% sure the mean falls in) incorrectly. If they had calculated it correctly, it is very possible the confidence interval would extend down close to 0%.

That does not mean that there are not unreported cases, because there most certainly are, but what it does do is extend the confidence interval into a wider range. This is not particularly good. I am 95% confident in saying that the true rate of covid-19 infections is between 0 and 30% of a given population. But the difference between 0 and 30 is a lot. In this case, the difference between 0 and 6% on the upper bound is quite a bit.

We are no doubt undercounting infections, but you can not extrapolate the information in that study widely. For example, I saw some well known people on Twitter doing that and coming up with an Infection Fatality Rate (different than Case Fatality Rate), to get to an IFR of less than .1%. More than .1% of NYC has already died due to COVID-19 - with more dying each day - so we know the IFR is likely to be higher than that. Just one flaw in extrapolating one study in a certain population to any given population.

I didn’t read the thread or try to interpret the data. I have no doubts about the validity of your statement. That’s an important flaw in the study of your confidence is so broad.

I would also like to add that one of the first heavily relied upon studies (Cambridge study maybe?) on the number of deaths if we did nothing or decided to quarantine e had an extremely large range on the confidence interval. As more data has come in, we are well below the confidence interval with extreme lockdown. I only say this because, as noted, info is coming in at a much more rapid pace than the scientific community is used to.

[wufan]

So now all of the new talk is centered around the "Second Wave" coming in the fall and winter. So with that said, shouldn't we be seeing a spike in cases and deaths in southern hemisphere countries right now or is only the United States and northern hemisphere nations prone to it?

If it is linked to temperature, we would have expected that already.

[Kung Wu]

Three new states had record peaks today, and Kansas was one of them: IL, KS, WI

[WstateU]

Three new states had record peaks today, and Kansas was one of them: IL, KS, WI

27 additional cases (48 total) at the Tyson plant in Emporia.

http://www.emporiagazette.com/free/a...e10b00c75.html

[1979Shocker]

A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients

[Aargh]

I've been following mortality rates (deaths / positive tests). Right now that number is at 5.6% and it's steadily climbing.

If that % is above the actual mortality rate, then the only thing that can make that number rise is if undiagnosed positives are rising.

There's probably a two-week lag before the mortality rate would begin going down and the actual time that undiagnosed positives would start decreasing.

The mortality rate is climbing at a faster rate now than at any point in the history of the infection. That indicates the rate of infection spread is higher than the rate of increased testing.

(Deaths/Diagnosed positives) can only go down if deaths increase at a slower rate than diagnosed positives. We're not there now.

[wichshock65]

A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients

Well, that's not good.

[wsushox1]

Cuomo states a preliminary antibody test in NYC (all caveats of antibody tests - sampling, specificity - we've discussed still apply) shows that NYC is around 21% of the population effected. Which would imply an IFR in NYC around .5-.7%.

Which is low, but it's not nothing. Keeping in mind 1/4 of all US deaths are in long-term care facilities. Probably time to begin opening up the economy for low risk people.

[pie n eye]

Cuomo states a preliminary antibody test in NYC (all caveats of antibody tests - sampling, specificity - we've discussed still apply) shows that NYC is around 21% of the population effected. Which would imply an IFR in NYC around .5-.7%.

Which is low, but it's not nothing. Keeping in mind 1/4 of all US deaths are in long-term care facilities. Probably time to begin opening up the economy for low risk people.

Interesting and seemingly good news, all due respect to the deceased and their families.

The article I read did mention that the samples were taken from random people at the grocery store. I’m trying to work out the implication of that.

Those were people who have been out and about (but haven’t most of us to varying degrees?). It makes sense that many would test positive for antibodies just like if they sampled people who have stayed at home you would expect to see fewer people with antibodies.

Either way the study seems to confirm what many other studies across the world have, that more people have been infected with this than the confirmed cases number. I guess if they sampled people who have been in lockdown for a month and a half and many tested positive for antibodies that would indicate it’s been circulating even longer than we thought?