Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[wufan]

I'm sure you understand that flu deaths are estimates based on how many flu cases and hospitalizations there are from year to year.

Statistically 2020 will go down (at least based on their preliminary numbers) as an average year.

flu3.JPG

Thank you. I did a little looking, and the CDCs first estimate of total flu deaths in 19-20 was 24k. They now say 24-60k.

Last year, they originally estimated 57-80k (which they reported for months) The new methodology says 34k.

That’s some bad math with all of the original 18-19 numbers being totally out of the 95% confidence level. Publishing such variable ranges and then retracting them can only lead to conspiracy theories.

[im4wsu]

Up to 65,000 COVID deaths.

While hospitalizations are down in the coastal states, they continue to increase in pretty much every other state. Barring a complete reduction in the death rate, it’s certainly possible to be over 100,000 deaths by August 1st.

From KDHE website may2-1.png

[wsushox1]

From KDHE website may2-1.png

Kansas is, admittedly, one of the exceptions. Look at Mississippi for an example of a state that is not.

[WuDrWu]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Again starting with the admission that I am nowhere near educated enough to comment on what's going on. I was trying to find some data on changing death count numbers this morning and came across this graph on the CDC website.

The last month has seen an "overage" of expected deaths, but just this last week a number far below expectations. I suspect the April 25 week will prove to be an outlier, but if say at the end of the year the "expected deaths" for the year are basically normal, and it shows that the vast majority of deaths related to (if not caused by) CV-19 were essentially just sped up by a few weeks to a month or two, am I totally misunderstanding what is happening?

I realize I'm taking future liberties with the numbers.

[SB Shock]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

Again starting with the admission that I am nowhere near educated enough to comment on what's going on. I was trying to find some data on changing death count numbers this morning and came across this graph on the CDC website.

The last month has seen an "overage" of expected deaths, but just this last week a number far below expectations. I suspect the April 25 week will prove to be an outlier, but if say at the end of the year the "expected deaths" for the year are basically normal, and it shows that the vast majority of deaths related to (if not caused by) CV-19 were essentially just sped up by a few weeks to a month or two, am I totally misunderstanding what is happening?

I realize I'm taking future liberties with the numbers.

That is nice find. It could be possible that as health conscious as things have been the last 6 weeks, reduced travel, etc that when we come out of this then we would see reduced deaths.

Only thing I would be careful with is the last data point could have some lag of when final reporting numbers get reported. But this is definitely a good page to periodically check out weekly as it gives us another data point to judge actually how we are are doing.

[MelvinLoudermilk]

Meanwhile, due to COVID and the shutdowns, the U.N. warns that a 130 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by December

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u...nturn-n1189326

[WuDrWu]

That is nice find. It could be possible that as health conscious as things have been the last 6 weeks, reduced travel, etc that when we come out of this then we would see reduced deaths.

Only thing I would be careful with is the last data point could have some lag of when final reporting numbers get reported. But this is definitely a good page to periodically check out weekly as it gives us another data point to judge actually how we are are doing.

All good points, thank you. I'm not looking at enough data, but I'm going to keep looking at this one for awhile as it seems fairly simple to compare and without much if any bias.

[wufan]

Meanwhile, due to COVID and the shutdowns, the U.N. warns that a 130 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by December

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u...nturn-n1189326

In the modern world, starvation is not the result of food shortages, but is the result of corruption. I’m curious who is taking advantage of the pandemic in these third world countries.

Admittedly, it is possible that supply chains are breaking down or that the funding previously used is no longer available, but I am skeptical.

[Kung Wu]

That is nice find. It could be possible that as health conscious as things have been the last 6 weeks, reduced travel, etc that when we come out of this then we would see reduced deaths.

Only thing I would be careful with is the last data point could have some lag of when final reporting numbers get reported. But this is definitely a good page to periodically check out weekly as it gives us another data point to judge actually how we are are doing.

I have a headache and only read the first few paragraphs then scrolled down to the chart. This is cool.

If you like train wrecks, check out New Jersey in particular.

[MelvinLoudermilk]

In the modern world, starvation is not the result of food shortages, but is the result of corruption. I’m curious who is taking advantage of the pandemic in these third world countries.

Admittedly, it is possible that supply chains are breaking down or that the funding previously used is no longer available, but I am skeptical.

Intergovernmental Organizations

‘Corruption. . . skeptical. . .’

yeah, I’ve been skeptical for awhile now

[C0|dB|00ded]

How's everybody doin' in here? Stayin' uninfected I hope! Those "antibodies" don't officially come with a 100% guarantee so don't start lickin' toilet seats just yet. Plus, everybody I know that has had it wished they hadn't.

FU you asymptomatic spreaders (P.S. the asymptomatic can likely get reinfected so they'll get their just desserts!)


T


...

[C0|dB|00ded]

Check this math.

We currently have 1.19M reported infections and 68.5k deaths. If we consider that 75% of the population (246M) will eventually be infected, here's what it looks like our future holds:

With a 5% actual current infection rate (16.4M) we have 959K Covid-19 deaths left to go (229.6M÷16.4=14×68.5K)

With a 10% actual current infection rate (32.8M) we have 445K Covid-19 deaths left to go (213.2M÷32.8=6.5×68.5K)

Now I doubt we have more than 16M infections and I seriously doubt we have more than 32M so I believe this is our death range.

What can affect the final outcome is how long it takes to infect 75% of the country and what types of therapies or vaccines arrive prior to our maximum infection point.

If we have a massive infection occurrence over the next 3 months it will make March and April's death numbers look like a joke. With 90-95% of the population likely uninfected, we can easily overload our healthcare system on a second wave. If that would happen it would inflate my prior remaining death estimates by an unknown factor. But it's fair to say it would be a factor greater than one.

FYI: With 5% current infections the death rate would be .4%; @ 10% current infections it's .2%.

Isn't it funny how everybody was focused on the death rate when a high death rate is what would have actually saved us? SARS1 and MERS go symptomatic quick; they also kill quick. Having a novel virus circulate through a society with only "flu-like" mortality rates and 25-50% asymptomatic can be fairly devastating. When it's all said and done, it will be the asymptomatics starring in the history books.


T


...

[ShockerFever]

Ah, the death angel has made it back in. Cold would be a fantastic reporter on CNN.

As for the actual statistics, US daily deaths falls for the 6th consecutive day, this time reporting the fewest deaths since March 31.

[Kung Wu]

Check this math.

...

On March 24th you emphatically told us that we had 10,000,000 infections, and to think otherwise took a leap of faith and we were being "irresponsible".

Ummm... if Cold is right and there are 10 million infected across America at this point, ..., and quarantine measures are not sufficient, that infected number could jump to 20 million in roughly 6 more days, 40 million in 6 more, etc., etc.

Well let's use the ACTUAL day-to-day growth rate of reported cases during the quarantine period, to get a sense of it ...

Date	Cold Infections	Reported Case Growth
24-Mar	10,000,000	23.2
25-Mar	12,320,000	23.2
26-Mar	15,178,240	26.3
27-Mar	19,170,117	23.2
28-Mar	23,617,584	19.9
29-Mar	28,317,484	15.8
30-Mar	32,791,646	14.6
31-Mar	37,579,226	15.7
1-Apr	43,479,165	14.4
2-Apr	49,740,165	13.6
3-Apr	56,504,827	13.5
4-Apr	64,132,979	12.3
5-Apr	72,021,335	8.4
6-Apr	78,071,127	8.8
7-Apr	84,941,386	8.4
8-Apr	92,076,463	8.2
9-Apr	99,626,733	8.0
10-Apr	107,596,871	7.3
11-Apr	115,451,443	6.5
12-Apr	122,955,787	5.3
13-Apr	129,472,443	4.5
14-Apr	135,298,703	4.5
15-Apr	141,387,145	4.9
16-Apr	148,315,115	5.1
17-Apr	155,879,186	4.6
18-Apr	163,049,628	4.0
19-Apr	169,571,614	3.6
20-Apr	175,676,192	3.3
21-Apr	181,473,506	3.3
22-Apr	187,462,132	3.6
23-Apr	194,210,768	3.9
24-Apr	201,784,988	4.2
25-Apr	210,259,958	3.9
26-Apr	218,460,096	2.9
27-Apr	224,795,439	2.3
28-Apr	229,965,734	2.5
29-Apr	235,714,877	2.6
30-Apr	241,843,464	2.9
1-May	248,856,925	3.1
2-May	256,571,489	2.8
3-May	263,755,491	2.3

If we had 10,000,000 infections on Mar 24, we would predict about 263,755,491 infections today.

However now you are saying you seriously doubt we have 32,000,000 infections.

Which is it?

[WstateU]

It's early, but might be time for another drinkypoo...