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  • Originally posted by WstateU View Post
    It's early, but might be time for another drinkypoo...




    "Another" ;)
    The mountains are calling, and I must go.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by wsushox1 View Post

      Kansas is, admittedly, one of the exceptions. Look at Mississippi for an example of a state that is not.
      This source does not define "hospitalizations, per se, but does have a category "serious/critical," which may be nearly equivalent. So here is the day-to-day change in the numbers. It appears that there maybe some data error in the 4/27 to 4/30 period.

      hospital0503.png

      Attached Files
      United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
      "I not sure that I've ever been around a more competitive player or young man than Fred VanVleet. I like to win more than 99.9% of the people in this world, but he may top me." -- Gregg Marshall 12/23/13 :peaceful:
      ---------------------------------------
      Remember when Nancy Pelosi said about Obamacare:
      "We have to pass it, to find out what's in it".

      A physician called into a radio show and said:
      "That's the definition of a stool sample."

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post

        On March 24th you emphatically told us that we had 10,000,000 infections, and to think otherwise took a leap of faith and we were being "irresponsible".



        Well let's use the ACTUAL day-to-day growth rate of reported cases during the quarantine period, to get a sense of it ...

        Date Cold Infections Reported Case Growth
        24-Mar 10,000,000 23.2
        25-Mar 12,320,000 23.2
        26-Mar 15,178,240 26.3
        27-Mar 19,170,117 23.2
        28-Mar 23,617,584 19.9
        29-Mar 28,317,484 15.8
        30-Mar 32,791,646 14.6
        31-Mar 37,579,226 15.7
        1-Apr 43,479,165 14.4
        2-Apr 49,740,165 13.6
        3-Apr 56,504,827 13.5
        4-Apr 64,132,979 12.3
        5-Apr 72,021,335 8.4
        6-Apr 78,071,127 8.8
        7-Apr 84,941,386 8.4
        8-Apr 92,076,463 8.2
        9-Apr 99,626,733 8.0
        10-Apr 107,596,871 7.3
        11-Apr 115,451,443 6.5
        12-Apr 122,955,787 5.3
        13-Apr 129,472,443 4.5
        14-Apr 135,298,703 4.5
        15-Apr 141,387,145 4.9
        16-Apr 148,315,115 5.1
        17-Apr 155,879,186 4.6
        18-Apr 163,049,628 4.0
        19-Apr 169,571,614 3.6
        20-Apr 175,676,192 3.3
        21-Apr 181,473,506 3.3
        22-Apr 187,462,132 3.6
        23-Apr 194,210,768 3.9
        24-Apr 201,784,988 4.2
        25-Apr 210,259,958 3.9
        26-Apr 218,460,096 2.9
        27-Apr 224,795,439 2.3
        28-Apr 229,965,734 2.5
        29-Apr 235,714,877 2.6
        30-Apr 241,843,464 2.9
        1-May 248,856,925 3.1
        2-May 256,571,489 2.8
        3-May 263,755,491 2.3

        If we had 10,000,000 infections on Mar 24, we would predict about 263,755,491 infections today.

        However now you are saying you seriously doubt we have 32,000,000 infections.

        Which is it?
        lol

        5 million dead by the end of April was also another memorable line.
        Deuces Valley.
        ... No really, deuces.
        ________________
        "Enjoy the ride."

        - a smart man

        Comment


        • Originally posted by ShockerFever View Post

          lol

          5 million dead by the end of April was also another memorable line.
          Off by a couple of logs...just like the number infected. No shame for cold though. We are all aware that he has a certain flair for hyperbole. See Ehimen Orukpe and Casey Crawford.
          Livin the dream

          Comment


          • Comment


            • We had our first positive case at my place of employment. He was asymptomatic at the time of the testing Wednesday last week and has remained asymptomatic as of today. There are ~ 2000 employees where I work, so it is likely there are others of which we aren’t aware.
              Livin the dream

              Comment


              • Gilead Pharmaceutical has submitted their notice of intent to manufacture Remdisovir at Pfizer McPherson! Hoping to be a part of the solution to the pandemic!
                Livin the dream

                Comment


                • Drug shortages for Covid critical drugs is showing. We are barely able to deliver demand for the pharmaceuticals that are considered necessary for emergent treatment due to infections (not shut downs) at API manufacturing sites.

                  My understanding is that there is greater demand for these drugs than the market can bare in the short term. As of now, there isn’t any shortage for non-Covid drug manufacture as the capacity to manufacture at current market demand still exists and these industries are considered critical worldwide.
                  Livin the dream

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by ShockerFever View Post

                    lol

                    5 million dead by the end of April was also another memorable line.
                    In fairness I have a pretty bad take somewhere back at the beginning of the crisis thinking Italy's death number would trounce ours. Eeesh
                    Kung Wu say, man making mistake in elevator wrong on many levels.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post

                      In fairness I have a pretty bad take somewhere back at the beginning of the crisis thinking Italy's death number would trounce ours. Eeesh
                      https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/

                      Does anyone believe that China doesn’t belong on this list?

                      Also, we are taking each countries word for the statistics. I have read from some sources, that the US counts every death as caronavirus when there are underlying conditions for example, a heart attack is counted as caronavirus in the US where other countries aren’t counting it the same.
                      Last edited by Shockm; May 4, 2020, 07:40 PM.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Shockm View Post

                        https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/

                        Does anyone believe that China doesn’t belong on this list?

                        Also, we are taking each countries word for the statistics. I have read from some sources, that the US counts every death as caronavirus when there are underlying conditions for example, a heart attack is counted as caronavirus in the US where other countries aren’t counting it the same.
                        Death reporting varies for this as with many things. For instance, most European countries don’t factor in infant mortality into their life expectancy. The US does.
                        Livin the dream

                        Comment


                        • You know, since I’ve followed this since virtually the beginning, for better or worse, it has just reinforced my bias against government agency statistical analysis. It demonstrates that as the data set changes, you can do about anything you want with the numbers and “hide” the fact that the data inputs have been altered. I think it’s why I’m so anti-climate alarmism.

                          Sorry for the minor political detour. It just fit here. I won’t expound or respond further.
                          Livin the dream

                          Comment


                          • You guys seriously need to stop trolling! You know that stuff will never work on me. I'm eternally undefeated.

                            Well... except in the case of forum administrators... *ahem*


                            So... I stand by every single comment or action I took in this fine thread. My intentions were likely not clear to all and that's okay. What I was NOT trying to do was win the "guess the weight of the fat bald lady at the carnival" contest. At the time of my posts there was no clear indication of what we were facing beyond what we knew from China propaganda and a smattering of infections across the country. I did happen to be influenced by a panel of "infectious disease experts" speaking solemnly as they compared the R0 of influenza to Covid-19. They said based on current evidence it spread at a rate 4x that of influenza in nursing homes (flu: 1 infects 7; C-19: 1 infects 28). It was clear that we were dealing with something other than "the flu".

                            If you'll reference back to my early posts I indicated that IF my hunch was correct and we had 10's of thousands of cases already spreading in the Sedgwick Country area and 10's of millions in the U.S. it will become evident by the ER admissions. The hospital(s) were obviously thinking along the same lines as myself as they completely cleared their pediatric wing preparing for the "rush" that never happened. To be totally fair, my assumptions were not entirely my own as you will easily be able to source. I was merely parroting the mindset of several of the great infections disease specialists in our country; namely, Dr. Fauci. You'll remember his quote: "If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing." Sound logic.

                            The main intent of my posts were to make sure that anybody being influenced by some of the growing dismissive narrative on here (fueled by right-wing talk show hosts) towards the pandemic, had a dissenting take upon which to reflect and make up their own minds. Of course I also had selfish interests in that the more people who were either smart, or scared "smart", and broke the chain of infections by taking themselves out of the bars, restaurants, stores, and churches for a few weeks, would not only be possibly saving the lives of my friends and family, but also countless others of whom I will never meet. Just simple logic folks... and a little game theory.

                            Fast forward to today and we have a few more statistics upon which we can base our projections. I posted a little easy math identifying a possible pathway (of death) depending on what number you would plug in for current infected. I was hoping someone would actually comment on the numbers I posted as I cannot find a hole in the premise. The only weakness I can come up with is if we find out the asymptomatic cases are in excess of 50%. In that situation my numbers will not play out (ceteris paribus - with no influence of vaccines, therapies, or beneficial mutations). I think the reality is a very large percentage of the U.S. must eventually be exposed to this insidious bug whether it takes 3 mos. (hopefully not) or 3 years (still not something to look forward to).

                            One thing you must know about me (when I'm being serious) is I am not afraid to look at the facts. I am a natural risk manager. Folks like myself will always have a negative slant on things because my mind seeks to identify all possible negative outcomes in a situation and quickly ascertain risk/reward. They say ignorance is bliss and I agree with that and have often fantasized about having that "gift". Unfortunately... I was given a different one. When I was quite young I found the soothing words of my father ("everything is going to be okay") quite satisfying, but as I matured and reached "oldhood", I found that a better way for me was maintaining a firm grasp on reality - even when the subject is very disturbing. I've also learned that for many, this approach is too stressful. In the case of "100 year" pandemics where incredibly negative outcomes can only be recognized after it's too late... I submit to you that it pays to err on the safe (dark) side.

                            Signed,


                            The Death Angel


                            ...

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                            • I'm just sitting here imagining someone reading my dissertation (wall-o-text) on their phone and I'm laughing my ass off. Apologies in advance.


                              T


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                              • Originally posted by wufan View Post

                                Off by a couple of logs...just like the number infected. No shame for cold though. We are all aware that he has a certain flair for hyperbole. See Ehimen Orukpe and Casey Crawford.
                                Pretty basic math really. The knowledge (China) at the time was a 3% death rate and it had just thrashed a West Coast nursing home quite thoroughly. This was not a prediction, this was a high estimate. 200-250M infected * .03 = 6-7M dead. That indeed was the ultimate high side and it was presented to the Administration.

                                Again, I didn't come to win a prize, I came to alarm. The only play was to social distance until we could better understand the enemy. No other move made sense. Folks in here talked like "it ain't no thang". I wouldn't understand that logic if I lived to be 100. Too much risk for too little reward (Internet pandemic guessing game hero status for a few weeks notwithstanding). This wasn't a game to me; it also wasn't political. So I came in, spun my spin and then slept like a baby.


                                T


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