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  • Originally posted by SB Shock View Post

    I'm sure you understand that flu deaths are estimates based on how many flu cases and hospitalizations there are from year to year.

    Statistically 2020 will go down (at least based on their preliminary numbers) as an average year.

    flu3.JPG
    Thank you. I did a little looking, and the CDCs first estimate of total flu deaths in 19-20 was 24k. They now say 24-60k.

    Last year, they originally estimated 57-80k (which they reported for months) The new methodology says 34k.

    That’s some bad math with all of the original 18-19 numbers being totally out of the 95% confidence level. Publishing such variable ranges and then retracting them can only lead to conspiracy theories.
    Livin the dream

    Comment


    • Originally posted by wsushox1 View Post
      Up to 65,000 COVID deaths.

      While hospitalizations are down in the coastal states, they continue to increase in pretty much every other state. Barring a complete reduction in the death rate, it’s certainly possible to be over 100,000 deaths by August 1st.
      From KDHE website may2-1.png
      "I not sure that I've ever been around a more competitive player or young man than Fred VanVleet. I like to win more than 99.9% of the people in this world, but he may top me." -- Gregg Marshall 12/23/13 :peaceful:
      ---------------------------------------
      Remember when Nancy Pelosi said about Obamacare:
      "We have to pass it, to find out what's in it".

      A physician called into a radio show and said:
      "That's the definition of a stool sample."

      Comment


      • Originally posted by im4wsu View Post

        From KDHE website may2-1.png
        Kansas is, admittedly, one of the exceptions. Look at Mississippi for an example of a state that is not.
        The mountains are calling, and I must go.

        Comment


        • https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

          Again starting with the admission that I am nowhere near educated enough to comment on what's going on. I was trying to find some data on changing death count numbers this morning and came across this graph on the CDC website.

          The last month has seen an "overage" of expected deaths, but just this last week a number far below expectations. I suspect the April 25 week will prove to be an outlier, but if say at the end of the year the "expected deaths" for the year are basically normal, and it shows that the vast majority of deaths related to (if not caused by) CV-19 were essentially just sped up by a few weeks to a month or two, am I totally misunderstanding what is happening?

          I realize I'm taking future liberties with the numbers.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by WuDrWu View Post
            https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

            Again starting with the admission that I am nowhere near educated enough to comment on what's going on. I was trying to find some data on changing death count numbers this morning and came across this graph on the CDC website.

            The last month has seen an "overage" of expected deaths, but just this last week a number far below expectations. I suspect the April 25 week will prove to be an outlier, but if say at the end of the year the "expected deaths" for the year are basically normal, and it shows that the vast majority of deaths related to (if not caused by) CV-19 were essentially just sped up by a few weeks to a month or two, am I totally misunderstanding what is happening?

            I realize I'm taking future liberties with the numbers.
            That is nice find. It could be possible that as health conscious as things have been the last 6 weeks, reduced travel, etc that when we come out of this then we would see reduced deaths.

            Only thing I would be careful with is the last data point could have some lag of when final reporting numbers get reported. But this is definitely a good page to periodically check out weekly as it gives us another data point to judge actually how we are are doing.

            Comment


            • Meanwhile, due to COVID and the shutdowns, the U.N. warns that a 130 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by December

              https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u...nturn-n1189326

              Comment


              • Originally posted by SB Shock View Post

                That is nice find. It could be possible that as health conscious as things have been the last 6 weeks, reduced travel, etc that when we come out of this then we would see reduced deaths.

                Only thing I would be careful with is the last data point could have some lag of when final reporting numbers get reported. But this is definitely a good page to periodically check out weekly as it gives us another data point to judge actually how we are are doing.
                All good points, thank you. I'm not looking at enough data, but I'm going to keep looking at this one for awhile as it seems fairly simple to compare and without much if any bias.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by MelvinLoudermilk View Post
                  Meanwhile, due to COVID and the shutdowns, the U.N. warns that a 130 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by December

                  https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u...nturn-n1189326
                  In the modern world, starvation is not the result of food shortages, but is the result of corruption. I’m curious who is taking advantage of the pandemic in these third world countries.

                  Admittedly, it is possible that supply chains are breaking down or that the funding previously used is no longer available, but I am skeptical.
                  Livin the dream

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by SB Shock View Post

                    That is nice find. It could be possible that as health conscious as things have been the last 6 weeks, reduced travel, etc that when we come out of this then we would see reduced deaths.

                    Only thing I would be careful with is the last data point could have some lag of when final reporting numbers get reported. But this is definitely a good page to periodically check out weekly as it gives us another data point to judge actually how we are are doing.
                    I have a headache and only read the first few paragraphs then scrolled down to the chart. This is cool.

                    If you like train wrecks, check out New Jersey in particular.
                    Auf geht's Shockers, Shieß on tooor!
                    Sheiß on tOOOOr ...
                    Sheiß on toooOOOOoooor!

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by wufan View Post

                      In the modern world, starvation is not the result of food shortages, but is the result of corruption. I’m curious who is taking advantage of the pandemic in these third world countries.

                      Admittedly, it is possible that supply chains are breaking down or that the funding previously used is no longer available, but I am skeptical.
                      Intergovernmental Organizations

                      ‘Corruption. . . skeptical. . .’

                      yeah, I’ve been skeptical for awhile now

                      Comment


                      • How's everybody doin' in here? Stayin' uninfected I hope! Those "antibodies" don't officially come with a 100% guarantee so don't start lickin' toilet seats just yet. Plus, everybody I know that has had it wished they hadn't.

                        FU you asymptomatic spreaders (P.S. the asymptomatic can likely get reinfected so they'll get their just desserts!)


                        T


                        ...

                        Comment


                        • Check this math.

                          We currently have 1.19M reported infections and 68.5k deaths. If we consider that 75% of the population (246M) will eventually be infected, here's what it looks like our future holds:

                          With a 5% actual current infection rate (16.4M) we have 959K Covid-19 deaths left to go (229.6M÷16.4=14×68.5K)

                          With a 10% actual current infection rate (32.8M) we have 445K Covid-19 deaths left to go (213.2M÷32.8=6.5×68.5K)

                          Now I doubt we have more than 16M infections and I seriously doubt we have more than 32M so I believe this is our death range.

                          What can affect the final outcome is how long it takes to infect 75% of the country and what types of therapies or vaccines arrive prior to our maximum infection point.

                          If we have a massive infection occurrence over the next 3 months it will make March and April's death numbers look like a joke. With 90-95% of the population likely uninfected, we can easily overload our healthcare system on a second wave. If that would happen it would inflate my prior remaining death estimates by an unknown factor. But it's fair to say it would be a factor greater than one.

                          FYI: With 5% current infections the death rate would be .4%; @ 10% current infections it's .2%.

                          Isn't it funny how everybody was focused on the death rate when a high death rate is what would have actually saved us? SARS1 and MERS go symptomatic quick; they also kill quick. Having a novel virus circulate through a society with only "flu-like" mortality rates and 25-50% asymptomatic can be fairly devastating. When it's all said and done, it will be the asymptomatics starring in the history books.


                          T


                          ...

                          Comment


                          • Ah, the death angel has made it back in. Cold would be a fantastic reporter on CNN.

                            As for the actual statistics, US daily deaths falls for the 6th consecutive day, this time reporting the fewest deaths since March 31.
                            Deuces Valley.
                            ... No really, deuces.
                            ________________
                            "Enjoy the ride."

                            - a smart man

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by C0|dB|00ded View Post
                              Check this math.

                              ...
                              On March 24th you emphatically told us that we had 10,000,000 infections, and to think otherwise took a leap of faith and we were being "irresponsible".

                              Originally posted by C0|dB|00ded View Post
                              Ummm... if Cold is right and there are 10 million infected across America at this point, ..., and quarantine measures are not sufficient, that infected number could jump to 20 million in roughly 6 more days, 40 million in 6 more, etc., etc.
                              Well let's use the ACTUAL day-to-day growth rate of reported cases during the quarantine period, to get a sense of it ...

                              Date Cold Infections Reported Case Growth
                              24-Mar 10,000,000 23.2
                              25-Mar 12,320,000 23.2
                              26-Mar 15,178,240 26.3
                              27-Mar 19,170,117 23.2
                              28-Mar 23,617,584 19.9
                              29-Mar 28,317,484 15.8
                              30-Mar 32,791,646 14.6
                              31-Mar 37,579,226 15.7
                              1-Apr 43,479,165 14.4
                              2-Apr 49,740,165 13.6
                              3-Apr 56,504,827 13.5
                              4-Apr 64,132,979 12.3
                              5-Apr 72,021,335 8.4
                              6-Apr 78,071,127 8.8
                              7-Apr 84,941,386 8.4
                              8-Apr 92,076,463 8.2
                              9-Apr 99,626,733 8.0
                              10-Apr 107,596,871 7.3
                              11-Apr 115,451,443 6.5
                              12-Apr 122,955,787 5.3
                              13-Apr 129,472,443 4.5
                              14-Apr 135,298,703 4.5
                              15-Apr 141,387,145 4.9
                              16-Apr 148,315,115 5.1
                              17-Apr 155,879,186 4.6
                              18-Apr 163,049,628 4.0
                              19-Apr 169,571,614 3.6
                              20-Apr 175,676,192 3.3
                              21-Apr 181,473,506 3.3
                              22-Apr 187,462,132 3.6
                              23-Apr 194,210,768 3.9
                              24-Apr 201,784,988 4.2
                              25-Apr 210,259,958 3.9
                              26-Apr 218,460,096 2.9
                              27-Apr 224,795,439 2.3
                              28-Apr 229,965,734 2.5
                              29-Apr 235,714,877 2.6
                              30-Apr 241,843,464 2.9
                              1-May 248,856,925 3.1
                              2-May 256,571,489 2.8
                              3-May 263,755,491 2.3

                              If we had 10,000,000 infections on Mar 24, we would predict about 263,755,491 infections today.

                              However now you are saying you seriously doubt we have 32,000,000 infections.

                              Which is it?

                              Auf geht's Shockers, Shieß on tooor!
                              Sheiß on tOOOOr ...
                              Sheiß on toooOOOOoooor!

                              Comment


                              • It's early, but might be time for another drinkypoo...





                                "You Just Want to Slap The #### Outta Some People"

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