2021-22 Basketball happenings around the American Athletic!

[Fake Gregg Marshall]

I think that Texas and Oklahoma will leave to play in the SEC next year.

I also think that the AAC and the other teams without Texas and Oklahoma think they are equal to each other.

I think no teams move from the AAC for at least 2 years.

If I was a Big 12 leftover school, I would be looking to go elsewhere. I would only go to the AAC if there were no other options.

In 2 years, we should know how strong a conference the other schools' ratings are without the big 2.

They are officially slated to join the SEC in 2025. You think they’ll pay up to break contract? I genuinely have no idea if this would be a rewarding decision for them to make.

[Fake Gregg Marshall]

Consider that the AAC is getting $7 mil per school and the L8 is, at worst, is now worth 8-9 mil per school. If the L8 were to take the top 3-4 from the AAC, who are primarily responsible for the $7 mil value, those schools would probably add a mil or two to the per school value of the L8. If they had assurance (which I don't know what that would take) the conference would be stable for 5 years, there is no doubt in my mind that UC, UM, UCF, UH or whoever jump at the extra $3 mil without ever looking back.

I think it's extremely unlikely that the two would merge to form a 20-team conference without teams getting left out (ie, adding Boise and BYU and dropping Navy/WSU). That's why the best case scenario is for one or two of the L8 to jump and some of the rest come to the AAC. But if those other conferences aren't adding new members, we're back to the likely scenario of the L8 staying together and robbing the AAC.

Will the AAC add more teams to replace? Sure. But they are going to pull the best football schools possible, not basketball schools. And I shudder to think what kind of mess we'll be left with on the basketball side of things. I admit, I don't follow college football, so I don't know who the best of the rest are, but I doubt that includes schools like Dayton, VCU or other basketball-centric schools.

I don't think it will be to the point of regretting leaving the MVC, but the resulting AAC may not be a significant improvement.

If that is what shakes out, we should beg the Big East, and heck, even pursue the A-10.

I’m trying to think of decent football schools that the American would take, and would want to jump to the American, and what basketball would look like.

This is a pretty uninformed list, but to the best of my thinking, maybe: Northern Iowa, North Dakota State, South Dakota State… that’s all I got.

I just did a Google search for “best fcs football teams” and that list made me gag.

[C0|dB|00ded]

They are officially slated to join the SEC in 2025. You think they’ll pay up to break contract? I genuinely have no idea if this would be a rewarding decision for them to make.

They've just done the equivalent of breaking the worst ass imaginable in a room the size of an elevator. May as well get started with their new friends.

[Fake Gregg Marshall]

They've just done the equivalent of breaking the worst ass imaginable in a room the size of an elevator. May as well get started with their new friends.

Makes sense.

[C0|dB|00ded]

I’m trying to think of decent football schools that the American would take, and would want to jump to the American, and what basketball would look like.

This is a pretty uninformed list, but to the best of my thinking, maybe: Northern Iowa, North Dakota State, South Dakota State… that’s all I got.

I just did a Google search for “best fcs football teams” and that list made me gag.

They wouldn't even look in the direction of UNI, NDS, or SDS. If the AAC gets poached, Wichita State is in a world of hurt.

[Fake Gregg Marshall]

They wouldn't even look in the direction of UNI, NDS, or SDS. If the AAC gets poached, Wichita State is in a world of hurt.

And that’s when we suddenly become a Catholic school.

[C0|dB|00ded]

And that’s when we suddenly become a Catholic school.

I'll buy my first rosary tomorrow.

We've also mentioned another "academic" strategy. Add UConn (football only), UMass, Rice, and Buffalo. With those additions---you've strongly established the academic credentials of the conference. The AAC would have 2 state flagships, 3 AAU schools, and a cadre of highly respected private schools. The AAC would have an institutional profile very similar to the ACC.

Some dude ^^^ on the conference board's bright idea if we get poached. It's high comedy over there. Half are talking about their new lives in the B12 and thanking everybody that helped them along the way, the other half are talking like they suffered a mild stroke. I'm just lurking (because banned of course) and biting my nails.

[WuTheOne]

I think our best hope is that Houston, Cincy, Memphis, and the Florida schools are still pissed at the B12-2-2 soliciting their applications 5 years ago and then refusing all of them.

The revenue difference between some AAC schools joining the B12-2-2, and sticking with the AAC is just a couple of million $$. While that's significant, Bowlsby has not shown any type of leadership that would convince schools that the B12-2-2 night be more stable with a couple of AAC teams.

[Fake Gregg Marshall]

I'll buy my first rosary tomorrow.



Some dude ^^^ on the conference board's bright idea if we get poached. It's high comedy over there. Half are talking about their new lives in the B12 and thanking everybody that helped them along the way, the other half are talking like they suffered a mild stroke. I'm just lurking (because banned of course) and biting my nails.

I would take Buffalo, from my (admittedly, limited) knowledge of them. They’ve had some killer teams recently, notably two years ago (I think), when they were a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. I was 100% convinced Loyola would be a bust for the MVC, so I’m certainly willing to put some faith in Buffalo.

UMass and Rice? In the words of Michael Scott: “Please, God, no. No. NOOOOOOOOOO!”

[Fake Gregg Marshall]

I think our best hope is that Houston, Cincy, Memphis, and the Florida schools are still pissed at the B12-2-2 soliciting their applications 5 years ago and then refusing all of them.

The revenue difference between some AAC schools joining the B12-2-2, and sticking with the AAC is just a couple of million $$. While that's significant, Bowlsby has not shown any type of leadership that would convince schools that the B12-2-2 night be more stable with a couple of AAC teams.

That is probably our best bet, but not likely. Let’s face it, we would JUMP at the chance to join any P5+BE conference as an Olympic-sports-only, save for maybe the P12 for travel costs. Despite how much we resent the “club,” every non-P5 school wants to be a part of it for safety and survival. We’ve been saying “the end for non-P5 is nigh, pray we end up on the right side” since the beginning of conference realignment in the late 2000s. The other AAC schools know what we know, and they’ll be gone at the first invite just like we would be.

[Stickboy46]

I’m trying to think of decent football schools that the American would take, and would want to jump to the American, and what basketball would look like.

This is a pretty uninformed list, but to the best of my thinking, maybe: Northern Iowa, North Dakota State, South Dakota State… that’s all I got.

I just did a Google search for “best fcs football teams” and that list made me gag.

They aren't going to pull FCS schools. They would pull from lower level FBS schools (UAB, Marshall, etc)

[ABC]

We have to remember that there is a fairly big exit fee from the AAC and a 27 month notice requirement. That doesn't seem to be talked about a lot.

And while I certainly understand the notion that UCF/Houston et all leaving for an unstable Big 12 still has upside for them, I think I would be a bit nervous when virtually all of the remaining 8 in the Big 12 seem eager to take the first leap, especially KU. Does adding UCF etc make it more enticing for OSU, KU and ISU to stay? I don't think so.

I supposed it is in some way the dilemma WSU had when leaving the MVC for the AAC right after many AAC programs were publicly auditioning for the Big 12.

[SubGod22]

Do you think the AAC could poach the MWC? Would be nice to have UNLV in the conference as one of the replacements. I have absolutely NO idea what kind of football they play, but their basketball can be quite good. I don't know if they're cheaters or what, but they usually have some great recruits.

The most likely MWC scenario would be to take the front range schools (New Mexico, Air Force, Colorado State, Wyoming). Would that be worth it? Probably not. But those four seem to have a connection and I'm not sure you could get any of them without the others. You might be able to entice AFA and CSU together, but is it worth it?

Jumping farther to the west would seemingly bring more value, but also brings up travel issues for non revenue sports and would the money be worth it? SDSU, UNLV, Boise (not what they once were) and...? I would think you'd need four or five to get it done. I'm not sure BYU would join unless ESPN makes it work for them.

[SubGod22]

I’m trying to think of decent football schools that the American would take, and would want to jump to the American, and what basketball would look like.

This is a pretty uninformed list, but to the best of my thinking, maybe: Northern Iowa, North Dakota State, South Dakota State… that’s all I got.

I just did a Google search for “best fcs football teams” and that list made me gag.

FCS teams would not be added to the AAC. You'd be looking at teams like Buffalo, UMASS, Liberty, Southern Miss, Marshall, Arkansas State, Western Kentucky and a few others in the south. I don't follow college football much, but these seem to be the schools that have something to offer. How much I don't know. Are there any other Texas schools? Rice would probably get considered just because they're Rice and the academics are amazing. UTSA started football a number of years back. How are they doing? Georgia Southern or Georgia State maybe?

Few of these sound good for basketball. Buffalo had some success, as has WKU. Liberty has made huge investments, but they're Liberty and that rubs people the wrong way. Marshall and USM have had flirtations with success.

[SubGod22]

I think our best hope is that Houston, Cincy, Memphis, and the Florida schools are still pissed at the B12-2-2 soliciting their applications 5 years ago and then refusing all of them.

The revenue difference between some AAC schools joining the B12-2-2, and sticking with the AAC is just a couple of million $$. While that's significant, Bowlsby has not shown any type of leadership that would convince schools that the B12-2-2 night be more stable with a couple of AAC teams.

And as we are, many believe we're under valued. I believe the AAC took less to be with ESPN and the opportunity to prove itself. A new deal, as we currently stand, would be more valuable than what we currently have and if ESPN wants to try and break up the B8 and add some to the AAC, they could get more than what teams leaving the AAC would get from Fox.