Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[SB Shock]

Sounds like it's a useless stat in Sedgwick county yet it's the main one shown on the front page of their dashboard. What a joke.

It not useless, it is the primary metric that is driving reopening the economy, schooling, high school sports across the United States.

What is a joke is the Sedgwick County Health department and the leadership of the county and City who couldn't actually properly develop a county testing protocol plan. Only thing they could did was implement the "face diaper". Sedgwick county has constantly lagged behind all the population centers in the state for testing per 1,000 people by about 30-40%.

[C0|dB|00ded]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/21/who-...-pandemic.html

WHO warns coronavirus vaccine alone won’t end pandemic: ‘We cannot go back to the way things were’

World leaders and the public must learn to manage the virus and make permanent adjustments to their daily lives to bring the virus down to low levels, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a news conference from the agency’s Geneva headquarters. “At the same time, we will not, we cannot go back to the way things were.”

Throughout history, outbreaks and pandemics have changed economies and societies, he said.

“In particular, the Covid-19 pandemic has given new impetus to the need to accelerate efforts to respond to climate change,” he said. “The Covid-19 pandemic has given us a glimpse of our world as it could be: cleaner skies and rivers.”

This is utter fictional bullshit... in case any of ya'll would like an example of where a prudent person draws the line. We WILL be back to normal by spring 2021. Bank on it!

Climate change? Wtf??!!

[shoxtop]

It not useless, it is the primary metric that is driving reopening the economy, schooling, high school sports across the United States.

Based on your explanation (great explanation for a use-case of the metric btw - much appreciated) it’s most useful for determining how well the testing protocols are working. Why would it be chosen to make any decisions not related to testing? Wouldn’t changing our testing procedures to bring them in line with where they should be invalidate any base lines that had been established at that point? Why would they choose this metric over any other? Most specifically rt?

[ShockerFever]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/21/who-...-pandemic.html






This is utter fictional bullshit... in case any of ya'll would like an example of where a prudent person draws the line. We WILL be back to normal by spring 2021. Bank on it!

Climate change? Wtf??!!

The virus is definitely not politically motivated.

[wufan]

The virus is definitely not politically motivated.

We know how to make the world good if they would just stop questioning us and do what we tell them.

[SB Shock]

Based on your explanation (great explanation for a use-case of the metric btw - much appreciated) it’s most useful for determining how well the testing protocols are working. Why would it be chosen to make any decisions not related to testing? Wouldn’t changing our testing procedures to bring them in line with where they should be invalidate any base lines that had been established at that point?

I can't answer any question of the "why they choose" anything they do. Their lack of transparency and sometime their intellectual dishonesty is disturbing. State of Kansas is now counting Confirmed and Presumed Positives. Why Presumed Positives? Only reason I can see is it is political. You want your numbers to look worse for a reason.

Why would they choose this metric over any other? Most specifically rt?

I suspect for the following reasons.

a. RT is calculated based on your daily infections. How do you get your daily infection numbers? From test results. If you are ramping up the number of testing, you will likely get more positives, so therefore you can get wild swings from day to day.

b. There is a lag in able to effective RT curve of ~14 days (the RT curves you see generally will be smoothed with confidence limits built on the day to day variation). For example if you calculate Sedgwick County RT you will see it ranges from 0.5 on weekends to 2.5 on high test days. But overall is running from 1 to 1.05 for most of August.

c. Testing provides a more real-time view of what is going on, and doesn't penalize you for increasing the number of tests. It actually encourages more testing, which in turns helps you find they asymptomatic.

Here is chart of the RT for Sedgwick County. I have put the 14 day running avg data points with a curve fit and 95% confidence limits. If I did the day to day running points the curve is much, much difficult to read

With the large fluctuations due to the jail testing we are at an RT = 1.03 with 95% confidence it is between 0.96 to 1.10. A week ago before the Jail testing Sedgwick county was at 0.84

RT.JPG

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Lab in NJ testing for the NFL had 77 false positive tests. 1) Because of things like this, how and why are we supposed to believe the data out there and 2) I wonder if these tests will be reversed in the numbers or still be counted as positives?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...eturn-negative

[WstateU]

Lab in NJ testing for the NFL had 77 false positive tests. 1) Because of things like this, how and why are we supposed to believe the data out there and 2) I wonder if these tests will be reversed in the numbers or still be counted as positives?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...eturn-negative

[SB Shock]

Lab in NJ testing for the NFL had 77 false positive tests. 1) Because of things like this, how and why are we supposed to believe the data out there and 2) I wonder if these tests will be reversed in the numbers or still be counted as positives?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...eturn-negative

maybe the person reading the test results got confused and thought positive was good, negative bad.....ala Office and Michael Scott

[1972Shocker]

77 out of 77 is pretty impressive though.

[C0|dB|00ded]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/24/...searchers-say/

Researchers in Hong Kong on Monday reported what appears to be the first confirmed case of Covid-19 reinfection, a 33-year-old man who was first infected by SARS-CoV-2 in late March and then, four and a half months later, seemingly contracted the virus again while traveling in Europe.

The case raises questions about the durability of immune protection from the coronavirus. But it was also met with caution by other scientists, who questioned the extent to which the case pointed to broader concerns about reinfection.

There have been scattered reports of cases of Covid-19 reinfection. Those reports, though, have been based on anecdotal evidence and largely attributed to flaws in testing.

But in this case, researchers at the University of Hong Kong sequenced the virus from the patient’s two infections and found that they did not match, indicating the second infection was not tied to the first. There was a difference of 24 nucleotides — the “letters” that make up the virus’ RNA — between the two infections.

“This is the world’s first documentation of a patient who recovered from Covid-19 but got another episode of Covid-19 afterwards,” the researchers said in a statement.

Whelp, now this happened.

I promise I'm not a wizard. It's just an unusual gift for sorting and arranging facts (w/ no bias) which then presents logical conclusions for the future. :P

We're getting right to the 6 mo. point for some of the earliest infections. It's known that coronavirus can produce immunity reactions that are less than robust. But for the sake of MY sanity, I'm going to have FAITH, that the reactions generated by the vaccines will create a sufficient enough response in the body to facilitate herd immunity. If we can't exceed 50-70%... well... let's just say our species is going to have a bit of an "evolution" over the next 5 years. Google Darwin and natural selection if I'm confusing you.

****ing Coronavirus! (my new saying for 2020)

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/24/...searchers-say/



Whelp, now this happened.

I promise I'm not a wizard. It's just an unusual gift for sorting and arranging facts (w/ no bias) which then presents logical conclusions for the future. :P

We're getting right to the 6 mo. point for some of the earliest infections. It's known that coronavirus can produce immunity reactions that are less than robust. But for the sake of MY sanity, I'm going to have FAITH, that the reactions generated by the vaccines will create a sufficient enough response in the body to facilitate herd immunity. If we can't exceed 50-70%... well... let's just say our species is going to have a bit of an "evolution" over the next 5 years. Google Darwin and natural selection if I'm confusing you.

****ing Coronavirus! (my new saying for 2020)

Also from the article, that Cold forgot to mention:

Experts cautioned that this patient’s case could be an outlier among the tens of millions of cases around the world and that immune protection may generally last longer than just a few months. They said that ongoing studies tracking patients who had recovered from Covid-19 would help reach more definitive conclusions. They also noted that the man’s second case was milder than his first, indicating that his immune system was providing some level of protection, even if it could not prevent the infection entirely.

“There’s been more than 24 million cases reported to date,” Maria Van Kerkhove, a coronavirus expert at the World Health Organization, said at a briefing Monday, when asked about the Hong Kong report. “And we need to look at something like this at a population level.”

[wichshock65]

Also from the article, that Cold forgot to mention:

LOL. But that part of the article didn't fit the narrative. Kinda waters down the "evolution", huh?

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

LOL. But that part of the article didn't fit the narrative. Kinda waters down the "evolution", huh?

Exactly. That quote from the lady at the WHO was relatively sane. I was shocked that someone from that corrupt entity would have something rational to say.

[C0|dB|00ded]

"Experts cautioned that this patient’s case could be an outlier"

Of course you two hopefuls cling to the above conjecture and totally disregard the following FACT:

"This is the world’s first documentation of a patient who recovered from Covid-19 but got another episode of Covid-19 afterwards,"

And this is why I have had an accuracy of 99.99% on Coronavirus issues while ya'll are batting around .500 (the times you agreed with me) :P

There have been more reported cases of reinfections, they just haven't been documented as separate strains. Of course there are going to be reinfections, the common cold is a coronavirus and if we don't become immune to the ever-evolving cold, we aren't going to be permanently immune to Covid-19 either. All we can hope for is ENOUGH immunity to rid it from the community at large. Perhaps we will have multiple vaccine shots throughout the year as it mutates. We have now proven we can produce vaccines in a fraction of the time as in the past. Perhaps we'll be working on the next vaccine iteration as soon as the one in the fall is released.

The point of the article is to inform ya'll on what I already know. That this is an insidious, alien virus and quite unpredictable. It's best to keep your eyes wide open to new information lest you put yourself and your family in unnecessary harm due to your hubris.

P.S. I didn't even see the doctor's disclaimer about it being an outlier. It was generous of her to say as a gesture of calm and good will, but doctors and scientists have understand the issue quite well from the moment it was realized we were dealing with a coronavirus. They are slippery...

P.P.S. Again, the point you should have taken from my post is what I said on the potential greater vaccinal-immunal effect towards the goal of herd immunity versus the community spread and mild asymptomatic infections. I don't flap my gums 'fer nuttin'. There's pearls between them thar lines...