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shoxtop
Last Activity: 12 hours ago
Joined: February 10, 2008
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  • shoxtop
    replied to Coronavirus 2019-nCoV
    At current rates, we are ~20 days away from passing Sweden in deaths per capita even with the advancements in treatment shown above. Anyone think the media will run redactions on all of the stories they...
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  • shoxtop
    replied to Coronavirus 2019-nCoV
    I wasn’t intending to come at you directly. I’ve just seen it used a lot of places including a lot of reopening/school plans and it surprises me every time. I was more trying to see what others had...
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  • shoxtop
    replied to Coronavirus 2019-nCoV
    Am I the only person who feels like there is too much variability in positivity rate to be a reliable metric?...
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  • shoxtop
    replied to Coronavirus 2019-nCoV
    I’ve had us at 1 for the last 4-5 days, but my model weights recency data a bit heavier than rt.live so it’s a bit more subject to delayed test result fluctuations. Barring atypical fluctuations,...
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  • shoxtop
    replied to Coronavirus 2019-nCoV
    Please let me know where I ever claimed 20%. The article makes reference to 20% as one possibility but I made no claim to that. My claim, as backed up in the articles, was that the most recent models...
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    Last edited by shoxtop; 2 weeks ago.

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  • shoxtop
    replied to Coronavirus 2019-nCoV
    You know good and well I never suggested it was something to test. The point is we don’t know what the threshold is and will have no idea until all is said and done and if we do get a vaccine we will...
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  • shoxtop
    replied to Coronavirus 2019-nCoV
    That article is from April and does not account for variable change that comes with natural herd immunity. We know much more about the virus than we did at that time. More recent models show a significantly...
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    Last edited by shoxtop; 2 weeks ago.

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  • shoxtop
    replied to Coronavirus 2019-nCoV
    Why 70%? 70% is the very upper end if you’re looking at natural vaccine-less herd immunity. That number decreases exponentially as the more susceptible are infected first....
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  • shoxtop
    replied to Coronavirus 2019-nCoV
    Sedgwick county cases are looking much better the last 10 days or so. We’re bordering on 1.0 rt which we haven’t seen since late May. Sadly the trend shows that we would already be there if not for...
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