Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[shoxtop]

I’ve had us at 1 for the last 4-5 days, but my model weights recency data a bit heavier than rt.live so it’s a bit more subject to delayed test result fluctuations. Barring atypical fluctuations, I expect rt.live to be around 1.04 by end of week and at or below 1.0 early next week. With the way their model works, the 1.0 intercept should end up right around the 19th or 20th.

Delayed testing results have really wreaked havoc on rt.live’s model the last couple of weeks, but the intercept is slowly working its way toward the 19th.

Sadly that downward trend has flattened in my model lately. While we should still continue to decline in new cases it’s not looking like it is going to be quick by any means.

[WstateU]

nm

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Delayed testing results have really wreaked havoc on rt.live’s model the last couple of weeks, but the intercept is slowly working its way toward the 19th.

Sadly that downward trend has flattened in my model lately. While we should still continue to decline in new cases it’s not looking like it is going to be quick by any means.

Most of the big metro areas in Texas seem to be trending down as well, but I'm seeing that we're currently breaking daily infection records here. It would seem as if the rural areas are having their share of issues down here now. I'm hoping that's not up in the panhandle, because if it is, it could spread into western Kansas.

And, along with that, the death rate has been spiking. I'm expecting we will hit 600 sometime in the next week or so.

[wufan]

Most of the big metro areas in Texas seem to be trending down as well, but I'm seeing that we're currently breaking daily infection records here. It would seem as if the rural areas are having their share of issues down here now. I'm hoping that's not up in the panhandle, because if it is, it could spread into western Kansas.

And, along with that, the death rate has been spiking. I'm expecting we will hit 600 sometime in the next week or so.

It’s going to go through almost everywhere. We will all experience spikes before this goes away, if it ever does.

[ShockingButTrue]

Did anyone see the link to the Business Insider that had an article claiming teen and young adults who vape are 5 to 7 times more likely to get coronavirus?

Why would that trait not apply to adults? The science on this Bat Flu is all over the place.

[wufan]

Did anyone see the link to the Business Insider that had an article claiming teen and young adults who vape are 5 to 7 times more likely to get coronavirus?

Why would that trait not apply to adults? The science on this Bat Flu is all over the place.

Didn’t see the article. Two possible explanations:

They only looked at young adults

Young adults that vape hang out together w/o masks or social distancing.

[C0|dB|00ded]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/scie...-pandemic.html

Scientists say the coronavirus is at least as deadly as the 1918 flu pandemic

The increase in deaths during the 1918 flu pandemic was higher overall, but comparable to that observed in the first two months of the coronavirus outbreak in New York City, the researchers found. But when taking into account improvements in hygiene, modern medicine and public health, the increase during the early coronavirus outbreak was “substantially greater” than during the peak of the 1918 pandemic, the researchers wrote.

“If insufficiently treated, SARS-CoV-2 infection may have comparable or greater mortality than 1918 H1N1 influenza virus infection,” Faust wrote in the paper. He’s a physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and an instructor at Harvard Medical School.

A strong argument can certainly be made for this assertion. Lots of variables though. We are likely in far worse health today with obesity and sedentary lifestyles, yet we have vastly superior technology. What we've learned regarding treatment since just March has grown exponentially also. Had this outbreak in the south occurred back in March... we'd be looking at 3k deaths per day along with whatever happened in the NE.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/13/the-...in-the-us.html

‘The death toll would be enormous,’ Fauci says of herd immunity to coronavirus in the U.S.

If the U.S. allowed the coronavirus to spread unchecked in an attempt to try to achieve so-called herd immunity, the “death toll would be enormous,” White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci warned on Thursday.

“If everyone contracted it, even with the relatively high percentage of people without symptoms ... a lot of people are going to die,” Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told actor Matthew McConaughey during a live discussion on Instagram.

100% agree with the esteemed immunologist.. particularly if we would have went that direction from the very start. Yikes!

The data point in the article indicating a 2% infection rate is incorrect. That's the documented infections. We've got to be at 10x that number by now. I would suspect we'll be at 50% by January when the vaccine is most likely to be ready. If the immune response is robust enough, we should be starting to experience some measure of herd immunity at that time. The question is... how many die up until that point. The combination of infection spread from the schools that open, plus Influenza, is going to be interesting... to say the least. How would you like to catch Covid WHILE you have the Flu? *sigh*

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

It’s going to go through almost everywhere. We will all experience spikes before this goes away, if it ever does.

We have great scientists and doctors. We can get this under control, only time will tell if we get rid of it, but I'd like to be optimistic.

[wufan]

We have great scientists and doctors. We can get this under control, only time will tell if we get rid of it, but I'd like to be optimistic.

It is under control. We flattened the curve.

[SB Shock]

We have great scientists and doctors. We can get this under control, only time will tell if we get rid of it, but I'd like to be optimistic.

No reason to be discouraged. For as diseases go, it is not the apocalypse.

a. 40% of people who get it do not have symptoms.
b. 99.2% of people who get it recover.

[1979Shocker]

Poll: 1 in 3 Americans would decline COVID-19 vaccine

[wufan]

Poll: 1 in 3 Americans would decline COVID-19 vaccine

A 60% populous of vaccinations should do wonders for herd immunity. Also, then we don’t have to protect the vulnerable. They would be voluntary participants in their own risk.

[MoValley John]

Poll: 1 in 3 Americans would decline COVID-19 vaccine

Thats kind of a decision everyone has to make. The fact of the matter is the US has contracted enough vaccine to knock this thing out. I'm guessing production and distribution will be at speeds we've never seen before. At that point, regardless of anything else, once vaccine becomes available, it's choice time. Anyone can make the decision to not get the shot. Do it at your own demise, once the vaccine is readily available, time to move on. Game over.

Until another bat rectum gets fried up and eaten in Wuhan. We should call that pandemic colon 21.

[MoValley John]

I was going to tell a covid joke but I realized most of you won't get it.

[wichshock65]

I was going to tell a covid joke but I realized most of you won't get it.

Come on, give us a try.