2016-17 Bracketology

[DUShock]

Here's a guy who really understands basketball:

Paul BiancardiVerified account@paul:Biancardi 52m52 minutes ago

.@IowaHoops with a big home win against Indiana. Even more impressive is the young talent in this program. Iowa making a case for NCAA's


Yep, losers of 3 of 4, thanking Indiana for GIVING them the win AT HOME tonight to not make the losing streak 4 in a row....but yeah, they're making a case for the NCAAs.

[Heinro]

Deleted

[Horn28Clem30]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/why-wichita-state-could-be-a-polarizing-bubble-team-again-this-year-235242950.html

[DUShock]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/why-wic...235242950.html

This is the story with the "97th" rather than 100 references in earlier posts.

[BostonWu]

https://twitter.com/jessenewell/status/834461073566793728

Check out analyzer matchup

[WSUwatcher]

This is the story with the "97th" rather than 100 references in earlier posts.

He may have to update his cherry picking -- according to Warren Nolan, Colorado State (a road win -- at altitude, no less -- for all those Iowa fans out there) is now up to 85th.

[SB Shock]

Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish discussed the issue of WSU for an at-large for half of their CBS SPORTS EYE ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL podcast. The question the Parrish asked is if WSU is 29-5 will WSU get a at-large?

They both agreed WSU is in their opinion a top 25 team. But the lack of quality wins is going to present a problem for the NCAA selection committee. Their guess is WSU is in, but they will likely get punished and be put in the play-in round if they need an at-large spot. It they cruise through the MVC tournament then they are probsably a 9 seed.

[shoxtop]

Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish discussed the issue of WSU for an at-large for half of their CBS SPORTS EYE ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL podcast. The question the Parrish asked is if WSU is 29-5 will WSU get a at-large?

They both agreed WSU is in their opinion a top 25 team. But the lack of quality wins is going to present a problem for the NCAA selection committee. Their guess is WSU is in, but they will likely get punished and be put in the play-in round if they need an at-large spot. It they cruise through the MVC tournament then they are probsably a 9 seed.

So one loss to a top 50 rpi team would drop us about 10-12 slots? Interesting...

[HenryMuto]

Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish discussed the issue of WSU for an at-large for half of their CBS SPORTS EYE ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL podcast. The question the Parrish asked is if WSU is 29-5 will WSU get a at-large?

They both agreed WSU is in their opinion a top 25 team. But the lack of quality wins is going to present a problem for the NCAA selection committee. Their guess is WSU is in, but they will likely get punished and be put in the play-in round if they need an at-large spot. It they cruise through the MVC tournament then they are probsably a 9 seed.

I just finished listening to this podcast. What they said made so much sense something I never even thought about. You lost your top 3 scorers from last year and had to try to figure out a new team and how to play together when you had your biggest games in November and December. So you lost those games and no longer had a chance to face top 100 RPI teams except Illinois State when you actually figured things.

I don't know why anyone is surprised it's same story just a different year on how the mid majors always get shafted. Monmouth left out last year was criminal. Yes they had a couple bad losses but these power schools on the bubble have a bad loss or two usually and they only play maybe 5-6 really bad teams a year look while a mid major has to play 15 bad teams a year and half them on the road.

The other thing that is always undervalued is road wins and how truly tough they are. No credit is given for a road win vs a team outside the top 100 but just look at the teams you beat on the road or Middle Tenn has beat on the road and what some of those teams home records are against all other teams.

Here is a good article on some mids I read today from another site.

PUPPET RAMBLINGS: FIVE VERY GOOD UNDER THE RADAR RESUMES
Posted on February 22, 2017 by David Griggs


I don’t editorialize all that often, but when I do, it is awesome!!

Tonight is our final Under the Radar Podcast of the season. We will discuss each conference like we always do, go over the conference tournament formats for all 23 UTR leagues, probably make a prediction on the winner, and assess what each team has remaining. By no means are we going away after that. It’s just that conference tournaments begin this upcoming Monday, so every night beginning this Sunday we will be recording our Championship Week Video Notebooks.

We have closely followed these teams all year long, and we are quite familiar with them. But even though we’ve closely followed them since literally the first day of the season, I now think even we are undervaluing them. With the bubble being as weak as it is, I felt compelled to go back and look at these teams and see what kind of case could be made for them. On the surface, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of merit there. Just bloated records against predominantly sub NIT caliber teams. But after looking at things a little more closely, I now believe these teams have won a significant number of games that were harder to win than what many other teams on the bubble have won.

To be more specific, if a team’s best wins are all at home against RPI top 50 teams who have losing records on the road, then I do not feel those games are any harder to win than going on the road to play a team that, while out of the RPI top 100, is still winning close to 80 percent of their home games. So, while the five teams below do not have an abundance of wins against “top 50” teams, they have won games on the road that are just as hard to win, if not more so, than it is to win against a lot of top fifty teams at home.

So, take another look. And, at least consider it. And, let’s hope that the selection committee is looking at them a little more closely than even we were just a few days ago.



MIDDLE TENNESSEE (23-4)

–RPI = 32 (good)
–OOC RPI = 26 (good)
–OOC SOS = 18 (very good)
–True Road Record = 10-2. 7 of the wins came against teams with winning records at home. Marshall, Western Kentucky, UTSA, Belmont, and Ole Miss are a combined 49-8 at home in games where they haven’t played Middle Tennessee. (VERY VERY good)
–Neutral Floor Record = 3-0, including a win over 22-5 UNC Wilmington (good)
–Other Notes = 3 bad loss at Tennessee State, at UTEP, and at home to Georgia State, but the loss at UTEP came during a stretch where the Miners are 9-2 in their last 11 games, and it was at the buzzer. They also have a loss at VCU, who has lost just one home game this year.
–Conference Tournament = At a predetermined site in Birmingham, AL. They could potentially have to face UAB in a virtual road game despite being the best team in the conference (crap deal)

The OOC RPI and SOS show that they scheduled exactly the way the committee says they should. The wins on the road show that they’re capable of winning games that are hard to win. Marshall, Western Kentucky, UTSA, Belmont, and Ole Miss aren’t considered “quality teams” by most, so they’re not going to get credit for quality wins for beating them. But, if you look at it closely, you see that those teams win a lot of games at home. I would argue that it’s harder to win at Belmont or Marshall than it is to beat top fifty teams such as Michigan and TCU at home. Those two teams have won a combined total of three true road games. So, we have a first place team with a top 40 RPI with five notable wins and a top 20 OOC schedule. That beats the bubble.



TEXAS ARLINGTON (19-6)

–RPI = 34 (good)
–OOC RPI = 21 (very good)
–OOC SOS = 58 (fair)
–True Road Record = 10-6. Includes a win at Saint Mary’s who’s only other home loss has come to Gonzaga, Texas who was at full strength at the time, and Georgia State and Georgia Southern who are a combined 16-3 at home when not playing Texas Arlington (very good).
–Other Notes = 5 of the 6 losses were at Minnesota and at Arkansas who appear to be tournament teams, and Florida Gulf Coast, Texas State, and Troy who are a combined 23-10 at home.
–Conference Tournament = Predetermined site in New Orleans. The seeding is standard and there is no advantage for the first place team. (crap deal)

They are a first place team with a top forty RPI. That almost always gets a team in. They also have also have two tough road wins against Georgia Southern and Georgia State, and another against Saint Mary’s who is a solid tournament team. If this team wins out they will have all the earmarks of an at-large team, and although they don’t have too many wins against the RPI top fifty, they’ve won games on the road that are harder to win than it is to win against a top fifty team at home with a losing road record. This beats the bubble



UNC WILMINGTON (22-5)

–RPI = 42 (fair)
–OOC RPI = 30 (good)
–OOC SOS = 109 (not so good)
–True Road Record = 11-3. 6 of the 11 teams have winning records at home. Western Michigan, Saint Bonaventure, Towson, and College of Charleston are a combined 38-8 at home when not playing UNCW (good)
–Other Notes = Of the three road games they lost, William & Mary is unbeaten at home, Clemson is 9-4, and Elon is a modest 7-3.
–Conference Tournament = Is being played at Charleston, who is the second best team in the conference and who has split with UNCW. It’s possible they’ll have to win a virtual road game in the conference championship despite being the better team. (crap deal)

Like the previous teams, they lack quality wins, but they’ve won games that are difficult to win in the sense that they’ve won on the road against teams that play very well at home. They do have two sub 100 RPI losses, but one of those was at William & Mary who is unbeaten at home, and the other was at Elon who is at least decent at home.



ILLINOIS STATE (22-5)

–RPI = 33 (good)
–OOC RPI = 87 (bad)
–OOC SOS = 119 (bad)
–True Road Record = 8-4. 4 of the teams have winning records at home. Evansville and Loyola Chicago are a combined 20-5 at home when not playing Illinois State, and two of the other five losses are to Wichita State. (fair)
–Conference Tournament = Predetermined site in Saint Louis (I guess fair)
–Other Notes = -All five losses were away from home, and four were to teams with winning home records. They also have a home win against Wichita State.

Of the five teams on this list, this is the team that we at Hoops HD have been giving the most love to, and although I definitely think they are worthy of consideration and comparable to other teams on the bubble who have really just won at home against top fifty teams that are bad on the road, I don’t like them as much as Middle Tennessee, or Texas Arlington, or UNC Wilmington. While this team has a quality win and for the most part has avoided bad losses, the games they’ve won aren’t as hard to win as a lot of the games that Middle Tennessee, UT Arlington, and UNC Wilmington have won. I still like them, though.



MONMOUTH (24-5)

–RPI = 46 (fair)
–OOC RPI = 35 (good)
–OOC SOS = 119 (bad)
–True Road Record = 11-4. Three of the losses were at South Carolina, North Carolina, and Syracuse. Only 5 teams have winning records at home, but Memphis and Siena are a combined 22-5 at home when not playing Monmouth (good)
–Conference Tournament = Clinched first place in the Metro Atlantic, but the tournament is being hosted by Siena and they could have to play a virtual road game in the semifinals. (crap deal)

This isn’t the strongest profile, but it doesn’t smell any worse than some of the bubble teams from power conferences who’s best wins came at home against top fifty teams with losing road records. They do have two bad losses to Rider and Saint Peter’s, but both were on the road, and also beat both of those teams, and they completely dominated the league which demonstrates they can beat anyone in it

[wichshock65]

This just drives me nuts. Same thing is happening this year as last. Random idiots spouting off about how we don't belong and then as soon as we get seeded, everyone that we face will be ragging about how unfair it is that they have play us because we were grossly under seeded.

I hate this league.

Ok, I'm done with my temper tantrum. Carry on.

[Heinro]

ILLINOIS STATE (22-5)

–RPI = 33 (good)
–OOC RPI = 87 (bad)
–OOC SOS = 119 (bad)
–True Road Record = 8-4. 4 of the teams have winning records at home. Evansville and Loyola Chicago are a combined 20-5 at home when not playing Illinois State, and two of the other five losses are to Wichita State. (fair)
–Conference Tournament = Predetermined site in Saint Louis (I guess fair)
–Other Notes = -All five losses were away from home, and four were to teams with winning home records. They also have a home win against Wichita State.

Of the five teams on this list, this is the team that we at Hoops HD have been giving the most love to, and although I definitely think they are worthy of consideration and comparable to other teams on the bubble who have really just won at home against top fifty teams that are bad on the road, I don’t like them as much as Middle Tennessee, or Texas Arlington, or UNC Wilmington. While this team has a quality win and for the most part has avoided bad losses, the games they’ve won aren’t as hard to win as a lot of the games that Middle Tennessee, UT Arlington, and UNC Wilmington have won. I still like them, though.

What? Their road losses were Murray St., Tulsa, TCU and Wichita State, with a neutral loss against San Francisco. Fortunatley for them, their losses weren't against Evansville and Loyola.

Otherwise, I generally liked their argument, though I question the accuracy after ISUr. Guess they feel like we should be solidly in? Since they didn't write about us at all?

[Heinro]

My rant is I don't understand the movement toward putting the Clemson's, GTech's, etc. in the tourney. Personally, I would much rather watch Mid Tenn as a 12 than TCU or Georgia Tech.

[HenryMuto]

What? Their road losses were Murray St., Tulsa, TCU and Wichita State, with a neutral loss against San Francisco. Fortunatley for them, their losses weren't against Evansville and Loyola.

Otherwise, I generally liked their argument, though I question the accuracy after ISUr. Guess they feel like we should be solidly in? Since they didn't write about us at all?

They do a show every Thursday night they get 4-6 people from their site and do an entire bracket from scratch. I watch that podcast every Friday. You guys were a 9 seed last week.

They no longer consider you an "under the radar" team because you are in the top 25 so that is why you are not on that list.

[AZ Shocker]

It's the same ole same ole cause it's designed that way. If the pundits talk about good to great mid majors all season long they are "legitimizing" there very existence. Then the .500 P-5 schools don't get any run and may endanger their chances of an at-large invite and more importantly hurt their recruiting.

[HockeyShock]

The more I read this bullshit, the more I pull for Ill St to get an at-large if we take St Loo.

But look, KState just beat West Virginia... making their case...

Personally, I want to beat down ISUr so bad in the finals (50+ MOV) that it actually knocks them out of at-large consideration.