2016-17 Bracketology

[SB Shock]

Actually if they were seeded by analytics we are a 3/4 seed.

Depends on which analytics you use. They pointed out on the podcast WSU should be a 4 or 5 per kenpom. They also pointed out that when you blow a seeding it not fair to the team that gets underseeded, but also unfair to the team that has to play the underseeded team. But they realize there is a human factor involved - and that is why there is a push for more analytics in the seeding process.

[jdshock]

After Duke's loss, we're up to 12 in kenpom. We're closer to 10th than we are to 13th, but it's close. 10-13 are all very close.

[WuDrWu]

Where do we stand 6 days later?

(UNC) Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Miami, Florida State. (EDIT Moving Va Tech ahead for now. Deserving. But Syracuse is dangerously close to falling behind)

(Kansas) Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State (generous), Oklahoma State. (Move OSU ahead of Kstate who SURVIVED elimination at Texas today. TCU and TT are still behind WSU and in deep trouble)

(Villanova) Creighton, Xavier, Butler. (Probably have to add Marquette now with a solid resume even with 10 losses)

(Wisconsin) Maryland, Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State. (Again, gotta add Michigan here. The Wolverines have 4 of final 5 on the road though, and the home game is against Purdue)

(Arizona) Oregon, UCLA, Cal, USC, Utah. (Moving Utah behind WSU. Only 1 good win and 9 total losses)

(Florida) Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas. (More solid are those 4, and nobody else really very close to WSU)

(Gonzaga) St. Mary's. Both clearly ahead of WSU. No one else close.

(Cincinnati) SMU (Ahead of WSU but not by much)

(VCU) Dayton (Same with Dayton)

(UNC-Wilmington - lost to Middle Tennessee and just can't have 3 league losses) (Middle Tennessee - man they have 3 bad losses to Tenn State, Georgia State and an awful loss to UTEP) (Valparaiso - Can't be swept by Oakland and expect an at large unfortunately) (Monmouth - in the hunt but behind WSU) (Akron - Sorry Akron, can't lose to Youngstown and Kent and get an at large) (Belmont -a faint pulse but that loss to Tenn Tech is a killer)


So I have 33 teams ahead of WSU at this point. I can't see any of the middies above getting in ahead of WSU if they don't win their conference tourney.

Would be most concerned about upsets in the following tourneys, in order from most concerning to least:

A-10
AAC
SEC
B10
WCC
BigE
Big12
ACC
PAC12

9 Bid stealers potentially.

2/23/17 Update

(UNC) Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame, Florida State, Miami, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech (Wake and GT on life support. Would have to win 3 straight to be talked about)

(Kansas) Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State. (KSU, TCU and TT all outside looking in now. Plus a couple of elimination games between these 3)

(Villanova) Creighton, Xavier, Butler, Marquette. (Seton Hall and Providence now in the mix, barely. Oh, and Cu better not lose to St. John's at home next week)

(Wisconsin) Maryland, Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan. (Can't see Michigan and Northwestern both getting in, schedule wise, but I'll leave them in here for now. Illinois could win their last 3 and get into the mix)

(Arizona) Oregon, UCLA, USC (Utah and Cal both behind WSU. Cal had ZERO road non-con games. Best win? Wyoming? All they have to hang their hat on is a great road win @ USC offset by losses to SDSU and Stanford and 7 other high quality losses. Even if you say "well beating Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Colorado etc is better than the Valley fodder (maybe, but ok)" you know they can't beat the good teams. Give a team like WSU at least the chance, since they don't have the bad losses that Cal has. Also, Cal still plays Utah in a de facto elimination game.

(Florida) Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas. (I suppose Alabama could finish 5-0 but so?)

(Gonzaga) St. Mary's. Both clearly ahead of WSU.

(Cincinnati) SMU (Houston not getting in ahead of WSU)

(VCU) Dayton (Same with Dayton)

(UNC-Wilmington - lost to Middle Tennessee and just can't have 3 league losses) (Middle Tennessee - man they have 3 bad losses to Tenn State, Georgia State and an awful loss to UTEP) I think you have to look at Monmouth. 2 points at South Carolina and I think they are in. Belmont -a faint pulse but that loss to Tenn Tech is a killer and losses to other hopefuls Vandy, Rhode Island and Middle Tennessee kills them.

31 teams ahead of WSU.

Vermont (25-5) is WSU extra light. No quality wins and losses to bubble hopefuls Providence and Houston, good losses to Butler and South Carolina and a rough one (if you want an at large) against Northeastern.
Rhode Island has 1 great win (Cin), a good win against Belmont and a quality loss to Duke, but also bubble hopefuls Providence, Houston and Valpo and bad losses to LaSalle and Fordham. Even a sweep of VCU, Davidson and St. Joes doesn't get them past WSU.

Akron and Valpo, sorry, you're done.

Let's be fair and compare WSU and Kstate.

Non con both played St Louis (WSU home Kstate away) and Colorado State (WSU away KSU neutral/away) with similar results. The rest of the schedule favors WSU but the Shocks lost 1 more of those tougher games. Clearly the B12 is tougher than the Valley. WSU has run though theirs, splitting with quality ISU, KSU has been up and down, losing to TCU and TT but winning @ Baylor, @ OSU and WVU but have lost 7 of 9. They have @ OU, @ TCU and TT. They can't lose one and get in if only because the other team(s) will claim they belong in before KSU. Win all 3 and it's close, but I think KSU would be in but TCU and TT definitely out.

Perhaps Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and others (not many) can sweep the last 3 or 4 and get in, but doing so is going to knock out some rivals too. Seton Hall and Providence sweeping their last 3 (possible if not probable) would be problematic. Both make a good case, SH more so than PC in that scenario.

I can see 2, maybe as many as 4 teams passing WSU in a worst case scenario but when you check schedules and then assume they lose a game in their tourneys, everyone else just doesn't hold up to WSU. WSU must still win Saturday. Losing 2 games this late against marginal competition would be awful and we'd need TONS of help.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I want nothing to do with KU.

Mostly because I want them to sit on it for 20 years.

If they would like to get the bad taste out of their mouths, they are welcome to visit Koch. Otherwise, suck it, I don't need the NCAA scheduling that game for them.

I see it as a gambler's bet. Double or nothing. Of course we would all be annoyed if KU got payback, but how sweet would it be to knock them out AGAIN?!

Not getting matched up with them for many years to come is the safe play. I can't fault anyone for "cashing out" with the 2015 win in hand, but I also see the pull of trying to double up.

Of course, none of us get to actually choose if the game happens, but it is an interesting discussion topic.

[ShockerPrez]

Shox need to get in tourney mode starting now. Assume a loss and your out. That has to be the mindset.

Teams must continue to be destroyed. Teams must have no incling of a chance from the tipoff.

Get it done!

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Depends on which analytics you use. They pointed out on the podcast WSU should be a 4 or 5 per kenpom.

2/23/17 - KenPom #12 equals 3 seed if you just take the rankings and make no further adjustments.

[jdshock]

Of course, none of us get to actually choose if the game happens, but it is an interesting discussion topic.

There are a lot of predictions out there that we'll end up an 8 or a 9. If so, we have a 25% chance of getting seeded with KU and a 25% chance of the re-match with Gonzaga.

That means we'd have a 50% chance of potentially facing one of those two teams. I can already guarantee that if it happens, I'm going to post several times about the committee orchestrating the whole thing to get these good story lines and I'm going to act like there was a .00001% chance of it happening. I know myself too well.

[Shocker_Power]

I see it as a gambler's bet. Double or nothing. Of course we would all be annoyed if KU got payback, but how sweet would it be to knock them out AGAIN?!

Not getting matched up with them for many years to come is the safe play. I can't fault anyone for "cashing out" with the 2015 win in hand, but I also see the pull of trying to double up.

Of course, none of us get to actually choose if the game happens, but it is an interesting discussion topic.

For me it's not a matter of "cashing out", I simply don't like to play any opponent with revenge fresh in their mind. Much like, I don't care how much you out-class an opponent, I don't like to play someone three times in a season.

[ShockerPrez]

Does the committee still factor in last 10 games?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Does the committee still factor in last 10 games?

Officially? No.
Does it enter into the thinking of a human being? Quite possibly.

[Shocktoberfest]

Does the committee still factor in last 10 games?

Great question. We used to hear a lot about trends, etc. Not many teams hotter than the Shox. It really feels, to me, like if we win out and lose the championship we will be an 8 to 10 with a possibility of the freaking play in game again just to punish us. But if we win out including winning Arch Madness, we could be as high as a 5 because the committee will be free to seed us appropriately. Heck, maybe even a 4. Just my thoughts.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Absolutely ZERO chance of a 4 or 5. I don't even think a 6 or 7 is likely to be possible. 8/9 is probably the best WSU can do.

Don't believe me? Just look at the Shox resume from 2015 that earned a 7 seed.

[Shocktoberfest]

Absolutely ZERO chance of a 4 or 5. I don't even think a 6 or 7 is likely to be possible. 8/9 is probably the best WSU can do.

Wow! Really? Even winning out? Dang! Ok.

Whatever. I can hear the gnashing of teeth if a 29-4 WSU team on a 15 game winning streak is a 9 seed paired with KU or fill in the blank number 1 seed. They can't have it both ways.

[shockmonster]

It doesn't sound like this year, but next year, the Top at large schools will be chosen and then they will seed teams by using the advanced analytics which would probably point towards a higher seed for us.

[shockmonster]

I liked it that Parrish and Norlander said that if WSU were in the Big Twelve, we are good enough to be in the Top 5 of the conference Standings, and therefore we should be in the NCAA Tournament.