2016-17 Bracketology

[im4wsu]

Based on RPI Forecast conference games, we have the following odds as of today:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Wichita%20St..html

11-5 (99.6%)
12-4 (97.9%)
13-3 (91.3%)
14-2 (74.2%)
15-1 (44.8%)
16-0 (14.3%)

Link shows our expected conference record to be 16-2.

[WuShock16]

The last two years have led me to believe that whatever seed I think we should get needs to add 1 or 2 to it to get the correct answer. In 2015, I thought that a 5 might be possible with 6 as probably where we would go....so we got a 7. I thought a 9 seed had potential with a solid 10 being the spot...we were 11 in Dayton. I will try harder to mentally prepare myself for such disappointment this year.

[XManCometh]

It all depends on how many regular season MVC losses WSU suffers.

18-0 or 17-1 and an at-large is secure no matter what happens in St. Louis.
16-2 is probably good enough, but I wouldn't be relaxed until I saw WSU's name announced during the selection show.
15-3 and I don't think WSU can afford a 4th loss to a Valley team in St. Louis.

I'm guessing Lunardi's 9 seed assumes 16-2 and 3-0 in St. Louis

I disagree. I don't think this is a two bid league even if we go undefeated or 17-1 in conference play then blow it in STL. We'd still have zero quality wins, outside of LSU, and they might not even be a top 100 win by the end of the season, and we'd add in another bad loss to whatever Valley team shot 75% to beat us.

If our RPI is in the top 40, or even top 50, at the end of the year I'd be very surprised because IllSU isn't going to stay in the top 100, and every other Valley team is outside of it already.

If we go 16-2 in conference and lose in the MVC tournament, we're going to the NIT.

This is an MVC tourny title or bust NCAA tournament year, imo. The Valley is THAT bad. We need to get out of here asap.


Long story short: If we don't win the Valley tournament this year I'm expecting an NIT bid. We don't have the Fred and Ron clout helping us out this year.


But hey, maybe I'm just a Debbie Downer!

[ShockerFever]

I disagree. I don't think this is a two bid league even if we go undefeated or 17-1 in conference play then blow it in STL. We'd still have zero quality wins, outside of LSU, and they might not even be a top 100 win by the end of the season, and we'd add in another bad loss to whatever Valley team shot 75% to beat us.

If our RPI is in the top 40, or even top 50, at the end of the year I'd be very surprised because IllSU isn't going to stay in the top 100, and every other Valley team is outside of it already.

If we go 16-2 in conference and lose in the MVC tournament, we're going to the NIT.

This is an MVC tourny title or bust NCAA tournament year, imo. The Valley is THAT bad. We need to get out of here asap.


Long story short: If we don't win the Valley tournament this year I'm expecting an NIT bid. We don't have the Fred and Ron clout helping us out this year.


But hey, maybe I'm just a Debbie Downer!

You're mostly right but WSU has a lot of cache right now. Fair or not, it makes a difference in selecting teams.

[AZ Shocker]

You're mostly right but WSU has a lot of cache right now. Fair or not, it makes a difference in selecting teams.

No doubt about that Fever! Having said that...let's win that damn thing in St. Elgin this time!!! GO SHOCKS!!!

[SB Shock]

All these plausible scenarios is all the more reason to join the AAC if the opportunity presents itself.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

The following is all via RPIforecast.com

because IllSU isn't going to stay in the top 100

Illinois St has a 85% chance of finishing regular season top 100 in the RPI. Probably only need to go 12-6 to do it.

Also, Loyola, for all the grief I've given them, has a 1-in-4 chance of finishing top 100. Evansville has an 8% chance. UNI 6%.

There is about a 95% chance that someone will finish top 100. I admit I too was really pessimistic the other day, but after reviewing the numbers, the odds are better than I first thought.

If our RPI is in the top 40, or even top 50, at the end of the year I'd be very surprised.

18-0 in MVC play = RPI of 31 heading into St. Louis. 14% chance of happening.
17-1 = RPI 37 ... 31% chance
16-2 = RPI 44 ... 29% chance

That's basically a 50/50 chance of being top 40, and 3-1 odds of being top 50, headed into St. Louis. The surprise would be if WSU DOESN'T finish top 50.

If we go 16-2 in conference and lose in the MVC tournament, we're going to the NIT.

Lose in the quarterfinals to a play-in team? Probably. Beyond that, I still think they'd earn a bid, but yes, I'd be nervous.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

One other note. The Shox squeaked in last year with an RPI of 48. Historically, teams in the 45-50 range get in about half of the time.

No, I wouldn't be comfortable with an RPI in the high 40s this year, but it is far from a guarantee of a visit to the NIT.

[WSUwatcher]

But hey, maybe I'm just a Debbie Downer!

Well, yes, you are.

Still, it's true: the Valley does indeed look pretty unimpressive. Much as we all hate to say it, the presence of the Jayboys (and even their drunken idiot fans) would make it a much stronger league at this point.

[WuShock Reaper]

THE BRACKET MATRIX
Matrix Last Updated
01/02/17, 12:59 PM

Happy New Year and just ten weeks out from Selection Sunday.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Wichita State (Automatic Qualifier from the MVC)
37 of 40 Brackets – Average Rank of 9.86
#11 Seed projected

Best – 4th seed
Worst - we have a bunch (9) bracketologist’s who have as on the 12-seed line

In addition:
Illinois State on 2 ballots
Missouri State on 1 ballot

[WSUwatcher]

THE BRACKET MATRIX
Matrix Last Updated
01/02/17, 12:59 PM

Happy New Year and just ten weeks out from Selection Sunday.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

In addition:

Missouri State on 1 ballot

Gee, who knew that LuskingforGuttin did an online bracket?

[LuskingforGuttin]

Gee, who knew that LuskingforGuttin did an online bracket?

I do a mock NCAA men's bracket each year along with women's hoops, softball, baseball, volleyball, and occasionally women's soccer. But I don't have a blog or post them online or anything. Sidenote: I have a very unhealthy amount of knowledge of NCAA bracketing procedures. I am pretty good at it for the most part. I would not have MSU in my field of 68 however. Honestly I am not sure that you all have a great at large profile either. I kind of think this is a one bid league right now. Arch Madness will be more fun that usual.

[FlyingWheat]

I kind of think this is a one bid league right now. Arch Madness will be more fun that usual.

You have a strange idea of "fun"

[Heinro]

I disagree. I don't think this is a two bid league even if we go undefeated or 17-1 in conference play then blow it in STL. We'd still have zero quality wins, outside of LSU, and they might not even be a top 100 win by the end of the season, and we'd add in another bad loss to whatever Valley team shot 75% to beat us.

If our RPI is in the top 40, or even top 50, at the end of the year I'd be very surprised because IllSU isn't going to stay in the top 100, and every other Valley team is outside of it already.

If we go 16-2 in conference and lose in the MVC tournament, we're going to the NIT.

This is an MVC tourny title or bust NCAA tournament year, imo. The Valley is THAT bad. We need to get out of here asap.


Long story short: If we don't win the Valley tournament this year I'm expecting an NIT bid. We don't have the Fred and Ron clout helping us out this year.


But hey, maybe I'm just a Debbie Downer!

I have to agree. I'm expecting 18 straight wins, St. Louis or NIT. Even if we win 18 straight, I'll still be sweating heavy on Selection Sunday. For the next 10 weeks I am the biggest ISUr fan outside of Normal except for the 2 or 3 games against the Shocks. 2 top 50 wins from them would be huge; we absolutely need them to stay top 100.

[AndShock]

FTR my bracket is the one with SWOMO in the field. Wichita State is not in the field as of now and my auto-bid goes to whoever is leading the conference at the time, which was SWOMO on Saturday. Also FTR, my bracket last year was slightly below average amongst all brackets.