2015-16 Media love thread

[ShockerEngineer]

Who said I hate Evan. I just don't think he's deserving the playing time he's getting. If liking the Shockers means liking Evan, perhaps you need a psychiatrist to figure yourself out. There's around 15 guys on the team. I think about 8 or 9 of them deserve more minutes than Evan.

Last I remember this is a free country and I'm entitled to my opinion, even though you want to twist it to fit whatever story you've told yourself about me.

I'd bet you're going to have to agree to disagree with people on this one. You are entitled to your opinion, but everyone doesn't need to get all defensive about it. I guess I don't understand what you're trying to accomplish by continuing to drill that opinion into others, we're not going to just change our opinions, unless you think no one other than you is thinking about this at all?

I'll go ahead and throw out my take:
1. Having Evan out there can be practically as good as an extra possession
2. The people you advocate being out there ahead of him might make the shot at the end of a game, but will not help the offense as a whole run as well, might have more of a chance to turn it over, and would have less of a chance of coming up with the rebound if the shot still misses. Evan is more of a known quantity, and HCGM clearly takes that first.
3. If one of those guys who can make the shots better have shown they can do the first two things, I believe they would be out there instead. Now, I'm not saying he should be taking 3's with the game on the line. If that's happening, I'd bet the intended play didn't pan out.

[_kai_]

This whole Wessel conversation is a double-edged sword.

Wessel has never been a stat hound, and he's never been offensively minded in his entire career at WSU. What he does is rebound, play the system well, shoot it alright when we need it, and hustle his ass off. His role is not something that demands more minutes, yet this year, he plays more mpg than ever before in his career. I wonder why? Maybe it's an expanded role from having Fred out, Landry who should be the back up guard taking minutes but EW has to be the plug for the guards, and then when Anton went down EW became the plug at the 4.

Through the first 3 games Evan averaged 21.34 minutes per game, which is lower than last year's average of 23.6 mpg. Fred sits to rest his hammy, Anton gets hurt in Orlando, and from Orlando up to and including the Utah game, Evan has averaged 26.84 mpg. I took out the Seton Hall game because of OT, and skewing numbers. But, if you include Seton Hall to that stretch of games it jumps to 28.43 mpg since Emporia State. So, prior to the injuries, Evan averages lower mpg than last year, then injuries come into play, and his mpg's increase to career high levels.

I'm not a rocket scientist, but I think that's a pretty telling timeline.

Now the things that are obviously different from last year, and you can't argue against them, but Evan is shooting the ball drastically worse than last year, but he's also shooting the ball more than he did last year.

Last season's True Shooting % (factors in 2pt, 3pt, FT's): 52.7% (7th out of 12 players - Ahead of Glass, Wamukota, Cotton, Holland & Henderson)
This season's True Shooting % (factors in 2pt, 3pt, FT's): 41.8% (tied 11th out of 13 players - Tied with Kelly, ahead of Ty Taylor)

Last season's Efficiency Rating: 5.8 (4th, however 1-3 are above 10, everyone else is at or below 5)
This season's Efficiency Rating: 3.6 (10th out of 13 - Nurger, Simon, Taylor only 3 worse)

Last season's 3pt attempts: 86 attempts in 32 games
This season's 3pt attempts: 37 attempts in 10 games

With Fred out, and the team relying on Ron at the point guard for a lot of the games Fred missed, it put added emphasis on others to pick up shooting and also distribution. The team didn't have Fred in there making assists, people had to step up, and it was harder because instead of Ron at the 2 for the shot, he was at the 1, so less options for scoring are available. You can easily see this in Evan's stats on assists.

Last season's % of total team assists: 4.62%
This season's % of total team assists: 7.35%

Now, where you can see Evan's impact in the statistics, is rebounding.

As a percentage of team offensive rebounds, Evan accounts for the 2nd highest percentage of offensive rebounds. Heights added for emphasis.
Kelly 6'7": 14.41%
Wessel 6'4": 12.61%
Wamukota 7'0": 12.61%
Brown 6'6": 11.71%
Grady 6'8": 10.81%

So, a conclusion? Evan is less efficient than last year, while getting more minutes, due only because of injuries. The reason he gets those minutes is because he's a better option than underclassmen right now. Because right now, there aren't any clear cut options that provide a better alternative to Evan's lack of offense that don't outweigh the drop off in rebounding, knowledge of the system, defensive IQ, and hustle.

[ShockRef]

I'd bet you're going to have to agree to disagree with people on this one. You are entitled to your opinion, but everyone doesn't need to get all defensive about it. I guess I don't understand what you're trying to accomplish by continuing to drill that opinion into others, we're not going to just change our opinions, unless you think no one other than you is thinking about this at all?

I'll go ahead and throw out my take:
1. Having Evan out there can be practically as good as an extra possession
2. The people you advocate being out there ahead of him might make the shot at the end of a game, but will not help the offense as a whole run as well, might have more of a chance to turn it over, and would have less of a chance of coming up with the rebound if the shot still misses. Evan is more of a known quantity, and HCGM clearly takes that first.
3. If one of those guys who can make the shots better have shown they can do the first two things, I believe they would be out there instead. Now, I'm not saying he should be taking 3's with the game on the line. If that's happening, I'd bet the intended play didn't pan out.

Engineer,
Thank you.

SK isn't going to agree because he doesn't understand the game. He equates players who shoot as the only recipe to winning a game. There is a LOT more that goes into it, trust me.

Watching HCGM's offense is required material to understand how valuable EW is to others GETTING the shot off.

Coaches have players at the D-1 level play intense defense at the next level. They don't just stand back and allow a teams designated sniper freedom to fire away at will
EW does the dirty work involved, including both high and low screens to free guys like FVV, RB & ZB to get space to release and shoot.

Most on here appreciate his hustle and diving for any loose ball and you can be assured HCGM also places high value on it.
But EW also knows what and how HCGM wants things to operate and does them without hesitation or reservation.

HCGM's offensive sets are complicated and are not for those short on smarts. They are based on several players, all doing their part to achieve success.

In short, EW sees the whole picture of an offense and its design, not just the final piece of the puzzle who happens to fire away at the hoop.
He is invaluable and needs to be on the court as much as possible.

There are those who may disagree, but they aren't getting paid 3M+/year to make those decisions for a reason.

That is all.

[ShockdaWorld]

One question...does the percentage of offensive rebounds account for the fact that he's playing more minutes than all those other guys, or is that just a total rebounds stat? I know EW gets a lot of rebounds and adds possessions, but just wondered how significantly those numbers would change if any of those other guys were getting similar minutes.

[shock]

/thread

[_kai_]

One question...does the percentage of offensive rebounds account for the fact that he's playing more minutes than all those other guys, or is that just a total rebounds stat? I know EW gets a lot of rebounds and adds possessions, but just wondered how significantly those numbers would change if any of those other guys were getting similar minutes.

That is simply percentage of total rebounds. So, actual % of team rebounds, unadjusted for per 40 minutes.

For that statistic you'd need the rebounds per 40 minute, and then you'd just have your ranking that way if everyone earned the same minutes.

Also a moderation note: I moved your reply, this reply, and my EW post to the media love thread. I was viewing multiple threads and EW was discussed in a couple, and I thought I was in the Media Love Thread when I hit reply, but realized I was in Seton Hall game thread. Even though it had a little EW postings in it, this was the thread I wanted to reply in.

[SHOXAAC]

I only halfway agree with your opinion. I think he deserves his minutes. He works hard .. really hard. He gains us possessions.. That said ... There are 4 or 5 other people that should be shooting 3's at the end of the game before him. Conner, Ron, Fred, Markis, ZB in that order ... in my opinon. They have all been proven to be our best 3 point shooters, not Evan. He does a lot, but making clutch threes seems to be the exception, not the rule for him.

Unfortunately the flow of the game doesn't allow us to line up, based on perceived priority, shooters. Evan is very capable to take and hit shots. He, like alot of players, are streaky shooters. You can't get on a hot streak unless you take shots...as long as they are in the flow of the offense.

[im4wsu]

I only halfway agree with your opinion. I think he deserves his minutes. He works hard .. really hard. He gains us possessions.. That said ... There are 4 or 5 other people that should be shooting 3's at the end of the game before him. Conner, Ron, Fred, Markis, ZB in that order ... in my opinon. They have all been proven to be our best 3 point shooters, not Evan. He does a lot, but making clutch threes seems to be the exception, not the rule for him.

Just to clear up the facts. CF shot 31.3% at KU and 28.6% as a Shocker. I can think of several others that have better percentages. Even EW is 31.4% for his career.

CF was great in high school but has yet to get unleashed in college. We're all hoping he "finds it" soon!

[Stickboy46]

Just to clear up the facts. CF shot 31.3% at KU and 28.6% as a Shocker. I can think of several others that have better percentages. Even EW is 31.4% for his career.

CF was great in high school but has yet to get unleashed in college. We're all hoping he "finds it" soon!

Agreed, he hasn't shot high percentage yet. He had a rough start and has only played 3 games, so percentages are swayed. He hit some critical shots Saturday though.

[Play Angry]

Conner's first 1.9 games were rough from a shooting standpoint. His last 1.1 have been pretty good.

I like his odds for continued improvement.

[ShockdaWorld]

I would be willing to bet money that If both players make It through this season healthy, CF will have a higher shooting percentage both for his career and for this season than EW does. That doesn't mean I think he should be taking EW's minutes. It just means that I don't have a doubt in my mind that CF will be a better shooter. And I don't think it will be close.

[im4wsu]

Conner's first 1.9 games were rough from a shooting standpoint. His last 1.1 have been pretty good.

I like his odds for continued improvement.

It's is always nice to be selective. Even EW is perfect if we consider only his makes.

Again, CF has had 62 3-point attempts and made 19, for 30.6%.

Rashard Kelly is shooting 6 of 18 on his career, 33.3%. But that is a small sample, so the results might be skewed.

[_kai_]

A little more Wessel talk after spending some time thinking about it. I wondered what Wessel's 3 point shooting attempts looked like on an individual game basis. Could I find a trend of why he shoots the ball more during some games and others?

Wessel has played in 98 games I can easily find stats for, and of those 98 games he's played in, he's attempted 5 or more 3's in only 11 of 98 games.

5 3pt attempts: 6 games
6 3pt attempts: 4 games
7 3pt attempts: 0 games
8 3pt attempts: 1 game

Out of the 11 games that Wessel has shot the 3 ball 5 or more times, only 2 of the 11 games did he end the game with an Efficiency rating lower than his season average for that season.

The 2 games of the 11 that he was below his season average for Effiency were both this year, Utah's game and Seton Hall's game.

Utah, Evan was 2-8 from 3, and ended with an efficiency rating of just 1.

Seton Hall, Evan was 2-5 from 3, and ended with an efficiency rating of just 4.

However, the other 9 games, I'll show you his 3pt attempts and makes, and his efficiency.

4-6 from 3, efficiency 17
3-6 from 3, efficiency 10
2-6 from 3, efficiency 9
2-6 from 3, efficiency 10
1-5 from 3, efficiency 8
2-5 from 3, efficiency 12
3-5 from 3, efficiency 14
3-5 from 3, efficiency 9
2-5 from 3, efficiency 11

What I gather from this, in Evan's entire career, he's only shot the rock from deep extensively during a game when he's having a great game... other than this year when his role is expanded to provide for offense the current roster is lacking due to injuries at the guard position.

Also, he's taking on the role of offense production that Tekele Cotton filled last year. If for what ever reason our typical offensive outlets weren't on that game, Tekele would step up and take on the role. That was something we had hoped Brown and Shamet would take on this year. Well... Shamet has his excuse of injury, and Brown is working on it getting better as the season progresses. Frankamp helps things now that he's eligible, but he it'll take a bit of time to get the cobwebs blown out and into form.

[shocka khan]

I appreciate your thoughtful analysis, Kai. Nice to have someone putting some actual information out here as opposed to name-calling and insults. And that's even though some of the stats you have posted don't entirely agree with what I've seen (but I always prefer analysis to what people 'see' because it has a factual base to it).

Keep up the great work!

[im4wsu]

From sports reference, the BPM are adjusted plus/minus ratings based on per 100 possessions. Here's the Shockers after 10 games. Except for Zach Bush and JR Simon, kind of resembles what I've observed.

Player	OBPM	DBPM	BPM
Zach Bush	11.9	3.1	15
Landry Shamet	9.1	5.4	14.5
Markis McDuffie	3.9	4.5	8.3
Ron Baker	4.9	3.2	8
Zach Brown	2.4	4.5	6.8
Fred VanVleet	3.2	1.1	4.3
Shaquille Morris	-0.7	4.6	3.9
Eric Hamilton	2.8	-0.2	2.6
Evan Wessel	-0.2	2	1.9
Rashard Kelly	-2	3.7	1.7
Conner Frankamp	3.3	-2.5	0.8
Bush Wamukota	-1.4	1.4	0
John Robert Simon	0.5	-0.6	0
Anton Grady	-5	2.4	-2.5
Ty Taylor II	-4.1	0.4	-3.7
Rauno Nurger	-6.7	-1.5	-8.3