Realignment Carousel Spins Up again (USC and UCLA to Big 10)

[SubGod22]

There is an argument that the AAC payout will drop even farther with the way the new people were brought in with unequal sharing.

I don't think that's going to happen. I think that was a way of adding more schools than we had and maintaining the current contract as is, and it still gives the incoming schools a bump.

The AAC will get a new TV deal down the road and it will be equal to or greater than the current one. The AAC has performed well, and has actually be more valuable than what the TV deal is. Even with losing a few schools, I think the expanded markets and some good products are going to be of value. And potentially losing SMU might even help if the AAC can go grab a few MWC schools.

Even if that doesn't happen, I think once the new schools are transitioned in and the viewing numbers remain fairly strong that the next deal will get a bump for all involved.

I believe the new schools next year get a 50% share as those six schools are essentially splitting what was allotted to the three departing schools, so they'll get about $3.5M, which is a greater number than what Wichita gets as a non football member.

[Stickboy46]

I got it from what Stickboy 46 said. I don't know about payouts. I know that the demographics of people in the US moving is South and Eest. The Pac-12 is in the worst position to take advantage of that movement. The Big 12 and the AAC are better positioned to grow their football contracts than the PAC 12., They need SMU more than SMU needs them. That is my last word on this everybody have a great day.

You did not get those numbers from what I said because I didn't say those .. you can go back and look at my post. SMU will jump the second they are offered

[Stickboy46]

I don't think that's going to happen. I think that was a way of adding more schools than we had and maintaining the current contract as is, and it still gives the incoming schools a bump.

The AAC will get a new TV deal down the road and it will be equal to or greater than the current one. The AAC has performed well, and has actually be more valuable than what the TV deal is. Even with losing a few schools, I think the expanded markets and some good products are going to be of value. And potentially losing SMU might even help if the AAC can go grab a few MWC schools.

Even if that doesn't happen, I think once the new schools are transitioned in and the viewing numbers remain fairly strong that the next deal will get a bump for all involved.

I believe the new schools next year get a 50% share as those six schools are essentially splitting what was allotted to the three departing schools, so they'll get about $3.5M, which is a greater number than what Wichita gets as a non football member.

Yea, that's why i just used current payout in the calculations of 4-5x. From my understanding is the remaining legacy schools get 7 mil per and the newbies start at 2 million and it goes up to like 3.5 by the end of the current contract. By the time the contract is up, who knows what the market will look like.

Either way, my statement that SMU stands for a 4-5x increase in pay is still 100% correct based on the data known. Not sure why it's hard to understand.

[SubGod22]

Yea, that's why i just used current payout in the calculations of 4-5x. From my understanding is the remaining legacy schools get 7 mil per and the newbies start at 2 million and it goes up to like 3.5 by the end of the current contract. By the time the contract is up, who knows what the market will look like.

Either way, my statement that SMU stands for a 4-5x increase in pay is still 100% correct based on the data known. Not sure why it's hard to understand.

i agree, which is why I left out the SMU talk. Getting 30M makes leaving an easy call. I have heard that SMU has never been a fan of being in western conferences, but I think the PAC trumps that. Even if the AAC were to get a bump to 10M or somehow it doubles to 15M (not going to happen), having the exposure and money of the PAC would still be too much.

I still go back to being surprised the PAC presidents would accept SMU

[Stickboy46]

i agree, which is why I left out the SMU talk. Getting 30M makes leaving an easy call. I have heard that SMU has never been a fan of being in western conferences, but I think the PAC trumps that. Even if the AAC were to get a bump to 10M or somehow it doubles to 15M (not going to happen), having the exposure and money of the PAC would still be too much.

I still go back to being surprised the PAC presidents would accept SMU

Yea .. SMU will do whatever they can .. It will be interesting to see the PAC presidents make the exception for a lot of things in order to get a foot in Texas

[TrackSuitAndTie]

Lost in all of this is the fact that the PAC-12 is at risk of breaking apart. If the B12 or B1G come calling it's probably curtains for the PAC-12 as we know it.

[shockerfan34]

Lost in all of this is the fact that the PAC-12 is at risk of breaking apart. If the B12 or B1G come calling it's probably curtains for the PAC-12 as we know it.

While that's definitely a risk, nearly the exact same risk was present when Wichita State joined the AAC but that's a risk you still take every time. Even though most of the top schools of the AAC have already left since we joined, I think the majority of us would still agree that moving up was the correct choice. If SMU has a chance to jump to the PAC 12, it would be foolish for them not to take the opportunity.

[Aargh]

The worst case scenario for joining the AAC happened. The result is not nearly as bad as it could have been, From a basketball standpoint, losing Houston and UConn was major. Cincy not so much and UCF hardly a ripple. The top end of CUSA was the best option for the league from a football standpoint. Turns out the top end of CUSA is a basketball upgrade from the MVC. With the exception of UTSA.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

While that's definitely a risk, nearly the exact same risk was present when Wichita State joined the AAC but that's a risk you still take every time. Even though most of the top schools of the AAC have already left since we joined, I think the majority of us would still agree that moving up was the correct choice. If SMU has a chance to jump to the PAC 12, it would be foolish for them not to take the opportunity.

Agree that SMU would be foolish not to make the jump, it's just not entirely guaranteed the offer will be supported by the conference. The number of leaks about the media deal negotiations, often coming from sources inside P12 athletic departments, is not a positive sign. There are quite a few schools in the P12 that aren't happy. If they were, they wouldn't be creating negative press about their own media deal.

Whether those schools are willing to jump ship remains to be seen, but there might be opportunities for them to jump ship sooner rather than later. The B12 just got $80 million from Texas/Oklahoma so that they can leave early and their Commissioner is saying they will aggressively pursue expansion (he's not talking G5).

[SubGod22]

The XII is absolutely looking at Arizona, Colorado and Utah. I'm not sure who the fourth would be if they went that far.

[Dan]

The worst case scenario for joining the AAC happened. The result is not nearly as bad as it could have been, From a basketball standpoint, losing Houston and UConn was major. Cincy not so much and UCF hardly a ripple. The top end of CUSA was the best option for the league from a football standpoint. Turns out the top end of CUSA is a basketball upgrade from the MVC. With the exception of UTSA.

UTSA is one of the fastest growing universities in a major market as well as a strong football program. From our standpoint, maybe not great, but from the leagues standpoint, it’s a good pickup.

[pogo]

Good lord. Pretty soon the AAC isn't going to be Missouri Valley level, it'll be Ohio Valley level.

The loss of SMU doesn't move my needle much. They don't bring alot to the table except maybe tennis

[TrackSuitAndTie]

The XII is absolutely looking at Arizona, Colorado and Utah. I'm not sure who the fourth would be if they went that far.

I don't think Arizona is leaving Arizona State behind.

[Shockm]

The XII is absolutely looking at Arizona, Colorado and Utah. I'm not sure who the fourth would be if they went that far.

I could be wrong, but UCLA, and Oregon seem to be the most coveted teams left in the Pac 12. They probably want the BIG or SEC, but they may have to wait, if at all. There is no doubt who the Big Dogs are. The ACC, Big 12, and PAC 12 are not in the same class. From what I see, as much as KU wants to be, UCLA, and Oregon are the only schools/states left that can even be considered in the class to be invited to the Big Dogs club. All the other possibilities would be considered Step Children (Florida State, Clemson, Miami, KU, KSU, OSU, ISU, Washington, Arizona, etc. are all at a lower class). Football rules.

[SubGod22]

I don't think Arizona is leaving Arizona State behind.

I wasn't sure what the politics of that might be. I don't think the XII would object to the Sun Devils joining