2021-22 Basketball happenings around the American Athletic!

[Shock Top]

Somebody buy a KU AAC billboard in Larryville. I don’t care what the likelihood of it happening is, watching holier-than-thou KU fans squirm is great.

I’ll chip in a few bucks to make it happen.

[Shock Top]

Translation: Let's tell everyone to hold strong while we all keep looking for a life raft and hope the lawyers dont wipe out the exit fees.

[CBB_Fan]

This is EXACTLY the thinking that will sink a school. The first school to leave gets the BEST deal. The last school to leave gets the WORST deal. Every school that leaves closes one more potential door to a suitor and substantially reduces the other school's bargaining chips. Each school is independently incentivized to find the best situation they can as quickly as possible, before the other schools do.

The standoff is between the conferences, not the schools. I guarantee you that KU and Iowa State are trying to get B1G offers, WVU is trying to get an ACC offer, and everyone else hopes in the Pac-12. Meanwhile Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, BYU and Boise State are all trying to get in the Big 12. But none of the prospective schools will add dollars to those prospective conferences. KU isn't adding $60M to the B1G. WVU won't add $40M to the ACC. The also-rans of the Big 12 aren't adding $20-30M to the Pac-12. And none of the prospective Big 12 members are going to add $37M to the Big 12.

So pretty much any individual school that gets an offer will accept, but none of the conferences want to be the one offering extra money. But someone will blink. If the Big 12 does nothing, their grant of rights expires in 2025 and all the member schools lose tens of millions a year. ESPN's argument is going to be "you won't get any offers from P5 conferences, but I can at least scratch your back for getting me out of my obligations." And it is hard to offer MWC and AAC schools when every single member of the Big 12 is prioritizing their exit.

[wichshock65]

This is EXACTLY the thinking that will sink a school. The first school to leave gets the BEST deal. The last school to leave gets the WORST deal. Every school that leaves closes one more potential door to a suitor and substantially reduces the other school's bargaining chips. Each school is independently incentivized to find the best situation they can as quickly as possible, before the other schools do.

Sounds like an episode of Law and Order.

[pogo]

My thinking as well. Anyone willing to join the Big 8 right now is not attractive enough for that conference. They are in quite a pickle.

An old song from The Bob and Tom Show. The women I want I can't get and the women I can get I don't want.

[Shoxing Me Softly]

Every Big 8 school thinking same thing. Gotta get the hell off this island. All it’s going to take is for the first one to find an exit and it will crumble fast. Hopefully they don’t wreck the AAC before the first exit.

[RoyalShock]

I wonder what this could mean?

[shock]

I wonder what this could mean?

a separation of D1. Too many schools.

[mattdalt]

a separation of D1. Too many schools.

Too many football playing schools :)

[CBB_Fan]

I'm sure the NCAA has two big worries. The first is NIL and having to fight dozens of fruitless legal battles. The second is obsolescence. To put it simply, the SEC, B1G, and a few other powerhouses have grown powerful enough to split off and form their own football and basketball playoff system. The NCAA will bend over backward to try and keep these teams under their umbrella, or die.

[BOBB]

This is EXACTLY the thinking that will sink a school. The first school to leave gets the BEST deal. The last school to leave gets the WORST deal. Every school that leaves closes one more potential door to a suitor and substantially reduces the other school's bargaining chips. Each school is independently incentivized to find the best situation they can as quickly as possible, before the other schools do.

This is correct. Who "wins" most bar fights? The guy who throws the first punch. Who goes home with the most girls? The guy that takes the first yes. If you ain't first, your last.

A bit more of the prisoner's dilemma than the Mexican Standoff. If the Big 8 all stick together the outcome for the group is the best. BUT, if someone breaks out on their own their deal is better and so on, until you get to Kansas State.

[Shocker1976]

I'm sure the NCAA has two big worries. The first is NIL and having to fight dozens of fruitless legal battles. The second is obsolescence. To put it simply, the SEC, B1G, and a few other powerhouses have grown powerful enough to split off and form their own football and basketball playoff system. The NCAA will bend over backward to try and keep these teams under their umbrella, or die.

The Power Conferences appear to be executing such a strategy to remove themselves from the strictures of the NCAA while cornering the cash media outlets are willing to pay for broadcast rights of college athletics. Given the responses from the B1G and PAC about not wanting to add any of the remaining Big 8 teams, I am beginning to challenge the supposition that the Power Conferences will be comprised of four conferences each with 16 members.

The SEC is marching to its own drum beat regards recruiting new members that meet its criteria for inclusion. At present Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame appear to be the only non-SEC schools with football programs that could justify inclusion without reducing the payouts received by the 16 SEC members. To me the ACC and PAC face issues that will soon prevent them from qualifying as a Power Conference on par with the SEC and to some extent the B1G.

[ABC]

Every single AAC school would leave within 5 seconds to the Big 8/10/12... whatever.

Possibly, but only with legal assurances that KU, OSU etc. don't leave. Which is want they will want to do if they are in a conference with Cincy, Houston, UCF, USF etc. I don't think KU or OSU want to be in a conference with those "low lifes"

[MoValley John]

The Big 12 can retool itself and remain a nationally-relevant power conference. No one knows how this is going to play out. Maybe Nebraska's not happy in the Big 10 and would like a revamped Big 12 sans Texas and Oklahoma. Other possibilities include the Big 12 pulling prominent programs out of the American and Mountain West, like Houston, SMU, Tulsa, and Colorado State.

I'm most interested in what Kansas is going to do, because in the current arrangement they will be the largest flagship school in the conference. Yes, their football sucks. But they will be the largest flagship school in the conference and they do have an elite basketball heritage. I think if Kansas leaves, the Big 12 is done as far as being a nationally-relevant power conference. You just can't lose the flagship colleges of the states of Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas and claim that you're still a "power conference" in this part of the country. On the other hand, if Kansas stays I think there is a chance that the Big 12 might be able to rebuild by bringing in other programs and raising the profile of those programs.

Kansas is in trouble. I don't live in Kansas, I don't live in Big 12 territory, and I'm not in the KU media bubble. I live in what is now B1G territory. Most of my business dealings are with people in B1G territory and the bulk of my friends are alums from schools outside of the Big 12.

Kansas doesn't move the radar. Kansas is a tough, tough sell. Kansas does have basketball heritage, but then what? Nothing. Crappy football, crappy baseball, mediocre volleyball, sh¹tty across the board Olympic sports. Nothing. And their "National" brand doesn't drive enough revenue to offset their addition to the B1G.

A few years back, KU knew this was coming. They initiated a $300 mm fundraising effort to rebuild their entire football program. New stadium, everything. It failed. They paired it down to just a few upgrades here and there and an indoor practice facility. Nearby B1G schools like Nebraska and Iowa have multiple indoor facilities, and they are adding more. Moreover, Nebraska just casually began digging dirt on another $160 mm football project.

For Kansas to get into the B1G, their inclusion would need to increase conference revenue by $50-$60 mil. Basketball doesn't. Kansas is a MAC school pretending to be a "flagship" because they have a heritage basketball team. For many KU fans, reality is slowly sinking in.

I know Kansas will do anything possible to stay in a power conference. The B1G may give them a lifeboat, but the buy-in will be in the millions and millions. It was $35 million for Nebraska a decade ago. It will be more for KU. The B1G controls all the cards, they control the negotiations, KU, if it even gets that far, will be paying a premium to join. They'd be far better off going the UConn route and dumping their boat anchor football program and joining the AAC or Big East.

[WuDrWu]

Word porn.