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Hey All!
Stopped by to check out your recruiting forum and saw this thread.
I thought that I’d share what I know about BIG EAST expansion candidates. Before I do that, let me just say that I don’t expect the league to expand for a few years at the earliest. Everybody wants to wait to give the old BE teams a chance to become familiar with the newly added programs and to develop some new rivalries. There are a few other political reasons for not expanding at this time, but I won’t bore you with those. I don’t see the league going to 14 or 16 --- 12 may be tops for a long, long time. More teams just gives each school a smaller portion of the TV money, which until the league has a chance to bank some NCAA tourney credits, seems to be a decision the schools are not likely to pursue. Two very important things to keep in mind with BE expansion:
1)The BE is run and all decisions are made by university Presidents (academics), not athletic department personnel (that has actually caused some problems here and there because the presidents don’t care about athletics deadlines, etc). This is important because these guys are VERY academically focused and really stress academic matters (it wouldn’t be much of an exaggeration to use the word “obsess”) over all things when making decisions. They also move at a very deliberate (a/k/a “slow") pace.
2) There is a preference toward private schools, but not for elitist reasons (okay, there might be a little bit of that too;)). The desire to stay away from public institutions as long as possible is because the presidents truly enjoy privacy. Adding publics opens the league up to Freedom-of-Information Act requests, not to mention the whims and political agendas of local boards of regents or state legislatures. Religious affiliation is not an issue, but may be favored of a nonreligious alternative.
3) Expect that there will be a conscious decision to maintain an equal east-west split. Easterners don’t want to cede numerical advantage to western schools.
As to candidates:
a) St Louis: as close to a lock as possible. Huge TV market, hoops first school, no football, Jesuit affiliation. Would probably be in the conference now instead of Creighton had SLU’s prior president not been so difficult to get along with and so universally disliked; he’s gone now. Speculation that some want to see if Jim Crews can keep the program at the same level after Majerus’ recruits are goners. Chance: 90-95%. After SLU there are no other overly strong options.
b) Dayton: OUT. To close geographically to Xavier (Cincy, OH). Rumors that Xavier doesn’t want them in and would try to block. Proximity to existing markets also rules out schools like St Joseph’s and George Washington.
c) Richmond: moderate chance. Private, but small. Enrollment is approx. 3-4K. Possible proximity issue with Georgetown.
d) VCU: moderate chance. Problem issues: public, proximity to Georgetown (rumors that Georgetown doesn’t want them), academics. With Brad Stevens leaving Butler, some are asking if VCU is in a similar situation – if Shaka leaves, will they be able to compete?
e) WSU: slight chance. Concerns: remote geography and academic profile. One of the biggest problems for WSU is that they are a western school and SLU is widely expected to be the western school added. Probably would require a 14-16 team makeup before rising to a more viable candidate. If WSU could do one thing to improve its chances, it would be to raise admission requirements, but when I mentioned this to a member of this board in PMs last spring, I was told this was not an option because of the nature of WSU's particular mission.
I see that some have discussed Memphis. Let me just say that even if they had no football, the BE would NEVER consider them. Their academic profile and reputation is absolutely putrid and the presidents would be embarrassed (no, that word is not too string in this particular context) to be affiliated with them.
Many believe the presidents will sit and wait a few years to see if natural candidates rise to the top. Many believe they are hoping that UConn will abandon the money pit that is their football program. If they were to do so, which I personally feel is a pipe dream, the league would have no problem admitting UConn despite their public school status. Another dream candidate if they could somehow get their hoops program to stop sucking would be someone like Duquesne or maybe even a Detroit – huge markets, hoops focused, private, no football. If expansion were to take place tomorrow, I’d say that it would probably be SLU and Richmond (VCU would be just behind Richmond). If UMass were to drop football, I’d think they would become a pretty appealing candidate too because of their location in an eastern market (the entire state of Massachusetts) that does not currently house a Big East program.
You guys need to get out of the MVC. Too many of the programs are not committed to winning and are flat broke. They are satisfied with the status quo and only hoping to field a decent program once every four years or so.
Good luck on your attempt for an undefeated season.
Stopped by to check out your recruiting forum and saw this thread.
I thought that I’d share what I know about BIG EAST expansion candidates. Before I do that, let me just say that I don’t expect the league to expand for a few years at the earliest. Everybody wants to wait to give the old BE teams a chance to become familiar with the newly added programs and to develop some new rivalries. There are a few other political reasons for not expanding at this time, but I won’t bore you with those. I don’t see the league going to 14 or 16 --- 12 may be tops for a long, long time. More teams just gives each school a smaller portion of the TV money, which until the league has a chance to bank some NCAA tourney credits, seems to be a decision the schools are not likely to pursue. Two very important things to keep in mind with BE expansion:
1)The BE is run and all decisions are made by university Presidents (academics), not athletic department personnel (that has actually caused some problems here and there because the presidents don’t care about athletics deadlines, etc). This is important because these guys are VERY academically focused and really stress academic matters (it wouldn’t be much of an exaggeration to use the word “obsess”) over all things when making decisions. They also move at a very deliberate (a/k/a “slow") pace.
2) There is a preference toward private schools, but not for elitist reasons (okay, there might be a little bit of that too;)). The desire to stay away from public institutions as long as possible is because the presidents truly enjoy privacy. Adding publics opens the league up to Freedom-of-Information Act requests, not to mention the whims and political agendas of local boards of regents or state legislatures. Religious affiliation is not an issue, but may be favored of a nonreligious alternative.
3) Expect that there will be a conscious decision to maintain an equal east-west split. Easterners don’t want to cede numerical advantage to western schools.
As to candidates:
a) St Louis: as close to a lock as possible. Huge TV market, hoops first school, no football, Jesuit affiliation. Would probably be in the conference now instead of Creighton had SLU’s prior president not been so difficult to get along with and so universally disliked; he’s gone now. Speculation that some want to see if Jim Crews can keep the program at the same level after Majerus’ recruits are goners. Chance: 90-95%. After SLU there are no other overly strong options.
b) Dayton: OUT. To close geographically to Xavier (Cincy, OH). Rumors that Xavier doesn’t want them in and would try to block. Proximity to existing markets also rules out schools like St Joseph’s and George Washington.
c) Richmond: moderate chance. Private, but small. Enrollment is approx. 3-4K. Possible proximity issue with Georgetown.
d) VCU: moderate chance. Problem issues: public, proximity to Georgetown (rumors that Georgetown doesn’t want them), academics. With Brad Stevens leaving Butler, some are asking if VCU is in a similar situation – if Shaka leaves, will they be able to compete?
e) WSU: slight chance. Concerns: remote geography and academic profile. One of the biggest problems for WSU is that they are a western school and SLU is widely expected to be the western school added. Probably would require a 14-16 team makeup before rising to a more viable candidate. If WSU could do one thing to improve its chances, it would be to raise admission requirements, but when I mentioned this to a member of this board in PMs last spring, I was told this was not an option because of the nature of WSU's particular mission.
I see that some have discussed Memphis. Let me just say that even if they had no football, the BE would NEVER consider them. Their academic profile and reputation is absolutely putrid and the presidents would be embarrassed (no, that word is not too string in this particular context) to be affiliated with them.
Many believe the presidents will sit and wait a few years to see if natural candidates rise to the top. Many believe they are hoping that UConn will abandon the money pit that is their football program. If they were to do so, which I personally feel is a pipe dream, the league would have no problem admitting UConn despite their public school status. Another dream candidate if they could somehow get their hoops program to stop sucking would be someone like Duquesne or maybe even a Detroit – huge markets, hoops focused, private, no football. If expansion were to take place tomorrow, I’d say that it would probably be SLU and Richmond (VCU would be just behind Richmond). If UMass were to drop football, I’d think they would become a pretty appealing candidate too because of their location in an eastern market (the entire state of Massachusetts) that does not currently house a Big East program.
You guys need to get out of the MVC. Too many of the programs are not committed to winning and are flat broke. They are satisfied with the status quo and only hoping to field a decent program once every four years or so.
Good luck on your attempt for an undefeated season.
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