American Athletic Conference

[Shocker-maniac]

I really think we are done with the MVC. Football or not, I think this new conversation lately is going somewhere. I remember how fast creighton went from talking about it to being gone. I think if there is an interested party between the AAC or the MWC, we are gone.

I think you're right. Bardo doesn't go public about WSU's interest in changing conference affiliation unless there is something concrete. If you look at WSU's previous responses to questions about changing conferences they were pretty non-committal, something like, "while we want to keep the door open to other options we are very happy to remain in the MVC." Compare that to Bardo's recent statements about our conference affiliation. Those are the type of statements that are made when one foot is out the door. Now, seeing media reports about WSU looking for a new conference you have to think where there's smoke there is fire.

[ShockTalk]

Well, neither conference has been in a big hurry to add a basketball only member. And based on published interviews I have seen both commissioners seem to be, at best, non-committal (MWC) to opposed (AAC) to adding a basketball only school.

Even if WSU had football I don't think the MWC has much interest in WSU. Recent media reports have Rice and UTEP going to the MWC. The AAC may be in a different situation with one or two schools going to the Big 12.

This is kinda my point. I was hoping that by the time Navy and Hawaii started playing football in their new conferences we would start to hear some positive tidbits from one of those conferences wanting to even up their basketball numbers. The MWC has already shot themselves in the foot by adding some of the other new teams (basketball RPI is down there with our MVC) and adding more football teams just reduces the slice of the pie even more.

[RoyalShock]

Without football, there will be one of two problems with joining new conference:

1. Those schools won't want to spread their TV revenues (mainly from football) among an extra team.

2. If WSU's allotment were adjusted for not having football, WSU would see very little TV revenue dollars.

That's not to say it wouldn't still be a net-positive to change leagues, but the sad fact is that from a revenue standpoint, WSU is not attractive to a higher-profile conference.

[Shocker-maniac]

I have always been uneasy to think of an arrangement where WSU is the ONLY basketball- only school in a conference like the AAC or MWC. Seems like there could be a lot of decisions made by the conference members that may not be in WSU's best interest and as the only member of the conference without football WSU would not have much leverage.

[ShockTalk]

Without football, there will be one of two problems with joining new conference:

1. Those schools won't want to spread their TV revenues (mainly from football) among an extra team.

2. If WSU's allotment were adjusted for not having football, WSU would see very little TV revenue dollars.

That's not to say it wouldn't still be a net-positive to change leagues, but the sad fact is that from a revenue standpoint, WSU is not attractive to a higher-profile conference.

You can bet #1 is a given.

Not sure what you mean by higher-profile conference. Higher than the Valley? That's a given. Other than the P-5 and possibly the Big Least, none of the others are that higher-profile. Outside of a team or two total, other conferences don't hold a candle to the P-5s. In basketball, the MWC is nearly as bad as the Valley right now, but they do have "name power" in their conference and several teams. The AAC is better in basketball, but a good portion of that better is looking for the first train out to a P-5. In fact, those teams are possibly more valuable to the AAC in basketball than football. So, the AAC could be looking for a quality basketball school to give them more stability there and perhaps to gain another NCAA team come tourney time without reducing the overall number.

[tropicalshox]

I've had the feeling why we are looking at football is because we don't think the AAC will ever let us in without it.

[Shocker-maniac]

I've had the feeling why we are looking at football is because we don't think the AAC will ever let us in without it.

Exactly. At some point, we are going to have to come to the reality as a fan base that the conferences aren't beating down our doors as a basketball only program. As much as we want to think it's the case, it's just not reality.

[Steeleshocker]

I have spent a long time pondering the return of football and I have come to the conclusion that I do not believe it would be the right move. I understand it could potentially help recruiting more students in the fall and add some excitement to the campus, but the risks would be too numerous , in my opinion. Here are my reasons why.

1. The goal would be to create a competitive FBS team. This is what all the donors will be expecting, after some period of time. The problem is it's apparent that the state of Kansas can only support one successful D1 program at a time. Even when KU was successful for a short period KSU was in decline. Additionally, our primary recruiting base would have to be Oklahoma and Texas, where we will be competing against 10 D1 schools.

The schools that have been most successful at creating a D1 program from scratch have been in the state of Florida. Where they have a lot of existing recruiting talent and only 3 in state powerhouses to recruit against. While the SEC regularly poaches from the state, it's slightly easier to keep kids home when you live in Florida.

Without regular success, the donor dollars will eventually leave. This would require cutting back funds to other successful programs out dropping football again.

2. The timing is wrong. We would be buying college football stock in a bubble when it would be most expensive. Much too expensive to start and get to the level of success we desire in an area that is geographically challenged. We would be like someone who found themselves upside down on a home loan.

3. College football conference alignment will likely change dramatically in the future. In looking into my crystal ball college football has become a behemoth that cannot work under the existing model. There is no way that UCONN wants to bring all sports to the Big 12. The costs for the traditional Olympic sports under their football alignments is skyrocketing. I expect the NCAA will separate conference alignment in football from other sports, allowing football conferences to grow to 16, supporting the playoff model, and allowing all other sports to have a more regional conference affiliation. Under this situation WSU is far more attractive without football, considering how successful they are across the board.

[DwShock]

If the big 12 expands and adds Uconn or Cincinnati would the AAC consider adding a non-football school?

[Shocker1976]

If the big 12 expands and adds Uconn or Cincinnati would the AAC consider adding a non-football school?

Commissioner of AAC has made public statements that he is not in favor of adding a basketball only school to the AAC

[DwShock]

Commissioner of AAC has made public statements that he is not in favor of adding a basketball only school to the AAC

Gotcha. Thanks. I was just wondering and don't really follow the conference stuff much

[wufan]

If the big 12 expands and adds Uconn or Cincinnati would the AAC consider adding a non-football school?

If UConn and Cinci are no longer in the AAC, then why would we want to be? Tulsa, Memphis, SMU? Not enough for me.

[ShockTalk]

If UConn and Cinci are no longer in the AAC, then why would we want to be? Tulsa, Memphis, SMU? Not enough for me.

Just for conversation, you should add Temple and Houston to that list as decent basketball schools (history wise anyway). Plus, the AAC would quickly try to fill those open spaces with targets like Mass and a school out of the C-USA (maybe LA Tech or W KY). I'd put those 7 schools way ahead of the next best 7 Valley schools.

[Blackmag]

Unfortunatley I think we will have to hope that the Valley will get better and more consistent. Valley is a basketball league, and we're a basketball school. It is frustrating that some of the schools drag WSU down but I feel that UNI along with WSU can remain relevant. Hopefully SIU is on the right track, the 13-2 record looks good but there weak schedual does,nt help. Evansville is still a decent team, especially at home, they always seem to play us tough. They too need to work on their schedual, just too weak. ISUr is a big disappointment, lots of talent, very inconsistent. Really the Valley is our best bet, in that we don't have football. We just need the league too catch up to the Shockers and make this league a 2-3 bid league every year.

[RoyalShock]

Unfortunatley I think we will have to hope that the Valley will get better and more consistent. Valley is a basketball league, and we're a basketball school. It is frustrating that some of the schools drag WSU down but I feel that UNI along with WSU can remain relevant. Hopefully SIU is on the right track, the 13-2 record looks good but there weak schedual does,nt help. Evansville is still a decent team, especially at home, they always seem to play us tough. They too need to work on their schedual, just too weak. ISUr is a big disappointment, lots of talent, very inconsistent. Really the Valley is our best bet, in that we don't have football. We just need the league too catch up to the Shockers and make this league a 2-3 bid league every year.

Next year is going to be a seriously down year for the league. The only teams I expect to be marginally better next year are the ones who will not finish in the top four: Drake, Bradley and maybe Missouri St. and Loyola.

The ISUs could be slightly better, but I doubt it. UE will be MUCH worse. UNI will take a step back. Without Beane I don't think SIU will be any better. The Shocks will need a year to recover from losing FVV, Baker, Wessel and Grady. I just don't see enough young talent in the league to replace what it's losing. The entire MVC first team will graduate. I don't see any school other than WSU being even NIT worthy.

The real question is whether the league will be able to recover from what I expect to be a historically awful season next year.