American Athletic Conference

[ShockTalk]

Unfortunatley I think we will have to hope that the Valley will get better and more consistent. Valley is a basketball league, and we're a basketball school. It is frustrating that some of the schools drag WSU down but I feel that UNI along with WSU can remain relevant. Hopefully SIU is on the right track, the 13-2 record looks good but there weak schedual does,nt help. Evansville is still a decent team, especially at home, they always seem to play us tough. They too need to work on their schedual, just too weak. ISUr is a big disappointment, lots of talent, very inconsistent. Really the Valley is our best bet, in that we don't have football. We just need the league too catch up to the Shockers and make this league a 2-3 bid league every year.

I don't know if this is a pattern or not, but I've notice that "Top Heavy" non-P5 conferences have taken a tumble in conference RPI. MVC, WCC, and MWC have all dropped considerable. For the Valley, it's been WSU, CU (before they left), SIU earlier, and UNI. I believe over the last 14 years, only 5 times has another team outside that group finished 1st or 2nd. Chance of dancing and not named those teams is slim. Add to this the replacement of Loyola for CU and we may have added another bottom-feeder, not contender.

Of course, the WCC has long been dominated by Gonzaga. However, for a good number of years, St. Mary's has also been at the top. Add BYU, and there is little chance for any other team to penetrate the top. In the MWC, it was BYU, Utah, UNLV, and SD St in an 8 team league. Now that they lost BYU and Utah, New Mexico has pick up some of the slack, but they have added so many non-contending teams that their RPI has taken a real hit.

The A-10 has avoided this drop by replacing top teams with other quality teams so there is still a large number of contenders. The AAC also currently has a large number of quality contenders.

What we now see is conferences with a lot more balance (and maybe divisions for one conference) pulling ahead. After the Big 6 is A-10 and AAC with, believe it or not, the Colonial not far behind the AAC. Next is the Mid-America and Summit. While the MWC is not far behind the Summit, the Valley is closer to dropping behind the WCC, Big West, and Ivy than they are pulling ahead of the MWC, much less the Summit.

Are the other teams in top heavy conferences finding it harder to recruit quality players because players figure those teams will never be at the top of the conferences? Are they now going to other conferences where they feel they can help their team to the top?

One other factor I've not looked into is basketball budgets to see if other Valley teams are in line with those of the Mid-America and Colonial. My guess is they probably are, so this is my best guess as to why so many teams in the Valley are struggling. Hopefully, SIU is for real and IL St finds a different coach. Other than that, I don't feel Evansville will continue near the top. If Bradley's new coach's approach doesn't work, they may be forever cooked and, outside of a blip once in a great while, I feel Loyola, Drake, In St, and MSU are doomed to the bottom without some sort of great change in their approach.

[CBB_Fan]

I think the difference isn't recruiting. I think the number of top 100, top 150, 3* recruits heading to the non-P5 conferences is about the same as it has ever been, maybe even higher. The problem is parasitic transfers, which have become far more prevalent. It used to be that guys would stay 4 fours at both P5 and non-P5 conferences. For teams with lottery picks, this meant they'd much longer periods of dominance and much stronger teams overall.

But what we forget is the Indiana State strategy relies on getting seniors. Those 4 year guys that start bad and become solid are cornerstones for smaller programs. They can't rely on getting top recruits, but they used to be able to rely on keeping most of their guys. Now if a player has a bad experience, they leave. So you see a lot of Jake White's going to smaller schools, a lot of Wiltjers moving to the top non-P5 teams. It is parasitic because it stops the constant development that leads to 4-year spikes, and because players tend to move away from the the middle. If they are a good transfer, they want to play at a Wichita State or Gonzaga. If they aren't a valued candidate, they want to move to DII or low D1.

This has hurt the Bradleys and Saint Mary's and made the WCC and MVC particularly more top-heavy. The A-10, AAC, and MWC have better recruiting and more viable teams, but arguably still have been hurt.

[Shocker-maniac]

Puke at the thought of remaining in the Valley. But without football I fear that is where we are doomed.

While the Valley may have an occasional rare year of getting more than 2 teams dancing, I think the trend will remain 1 maybe 2 teams per year.

[Flip1381]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned, but another recent example of a school adding a football program would be UNC Charlotte. They started their football program in 2013 as an FCS-Independent, played 2013 and 2014 as independent then joined Conference USA. The stadium was also funded by borrowing $40.5 million of state issued debt, paid by an athletic fee paid by students, which increases year to year to fund the debt service and the operations. Stadium holds about 15,000, obviously, WSU would want shoot for higher capacity than that, but its a start.
Football program: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlotte_49ers_football
Stadium: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Richardson_Stadium

[Topshock]

Next year is going to be a seriously down year for the league. The only teams I expect to be marginally better next year are the ones who will not finish in the top four: Drake, Bradley and maybe Missouri St. and Loyola.

The ISUs could be slightly better, but I doubt it. UE will be MUCH worse. UNI will take a step back. Without Beane I don't think SIU will be any better. The Shocks will need a year to recover from losing FVV, Baker, Wessel and Grady. I just don't see enough young talent in the league to replace what it's losing. The entire MVC first team will graduate. I don't see any school other than WSU being even NIT worthy.

The real question is whether the league will be able to recover from what I expect to be a historically awful season next year.

While I tend to agree with your overall point, I think if the key players, signees and coaches remain in place for WSU, the drop off for the Shocks will be much less than people think.

[Stickboy46]

Is the first cog starting to turn?

Big 12 looking to expand. Might grab a couple schools from conferences we have been looking at as possible alternatives.

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball-news/4693363-big-12-conference-expansion-meetings-schedule

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

Losing Cincy and/or UConn greatly diminishes the AAC's attractiveness for us. HOWEVER, it would still be better than the MVC.

I'm still skeptical whether WSU is an attractive addition to an AAC that is looking to replace football schools. They would want to replace a football school with a football school. The only way I see this situation possibly paying off for us is if the AAC really desires to balance its basketball membership. They currently have 12 football and 11 basketball.

[Stickboy46]

Losing Cincy and/or UConn greatly diminishes the AAC's attractiveness for us. HOWEVER, it would still be better than the MVC.

I'm still skeptical whether WSU is an attractive addition to an AAC that is looking to replace football schools. They would want to replace a football school with a football school. The only way I see this situation possibly paying off for us is if the AAC really desires to balance its basketball membership. They currently have 12 football and 11 basketball.

If they lose 2 schools, they will already be looking for replacements. If they are looking to balance it out, it would be the best time to do it.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

If they lose 2 schools, they will already be looking for replacements. If they are looking to balance it out, it would be the best time to do it.

I agree with that. I'm saying I don't think they replace Cincy or UConn with us; instead they replace Cincy or UConn with a football school AND us, and that's probably the only way we'll get in.

[Stickboy46]

I agree with that. I'm saying I don't think they replace Cincy or UConn with us; instead they replace Cincy or UConn with a football school AND us, and that's probably the only way we'll get in.

Agreed, Just saying this may be the cog that we needed to start turning for anything to happen.

[SHOCKvalue]

If the AAC loses an even number of full membership schools, it does little to help our case. The 12/11 predicament just becomes the 10/9 predicament, and WSU is after that second number in each predicament. We're no more or less appealing to the AAC should they lose UCONN and Cincy.

[ShockdaWorld]

If the AAC loses an even number of full membership schools, it does little to help our case. The 12/11 predicament just becomes the 10/9 predicament, and WSU is after that second number in each predicament. We're no more or less appealing to the AAC should they lose UCONN and Cincy.

Except that they would be losing a basketball power history, and may want to replace with another basketball power. Along with football elsewhere.

[ArtVandalay]

If the AAC loses an even number of full membership schools, it does little to help our case. The 12/11 predicament just becomes the 10/9 predicament, and WSU is after that second number in each predicament. We're no more or less appealing to the AAC should they lose UCONN and Cincy.

The NCAA just voted to allow football conferences with less than 12 teams still have a conference championship. They could decide to stay at 10, add basketball only to get to 10. Not sure what football schools might be appealing to them.

11 for basketball works, 9 wouldn't.

[Cdizzle]

The NCAA just voted to allow football conferences with less than 12 teams still have a conference championship. They could decide to stay at 10, add basketball only to get to 10. Not sure what football schools might be appealing to them.

Missouri State is the clear choice.

[Play Angry]

It is sort of mind-blowing that BYU has never been able to sniff a P5 invite. IMO, their academics, institutional support for athletics, huge supply of $$$, and enormous/widely distributed fan base would make them the steal of the decade if the Big 12 deigns to ask them in.