Russia-Ukraine War

[C0|dB|00ded]

Putin's people will have to assassinate him. The West does not have the will.

Assassinations never work out too well for us. I suspect we'd end up with somebody far worse than Putin. We need him publicly humiliated, then ousted (voted out) by his inner circle. Putin and his friends are more materialistic than idealistic, make no mistake about it. That inner circle is whose yachts, mansions, Bentleys and jets we are currently rounding up and impounding.

[ShockerFever]

I'd arm every man, woman, and child with Stinger missiles so Russia cannot gain air superiority. Then it's guerilla warfare time. A horrible existence, but it will assure the Russians of paying a price they could never conceive of paying.

Then I would HEAVILY bolster NATO forces inside countries surrounding Russia. This, along with the sanctions, is about all we can do short of actively engaging. Then we wait...

As far as the energy crisis is concerned... high gas prices will convince a lot of folk to move on over to electric. That isn't such a bad thing. Once you drive an electric vehicle, it's hard to go back. They need to get cheaper though. Perhaps some creative leases or incentives can take the sting out for the average American. I like the idea of cooperative ownership programs as well. Americans will innovate in these times and come out better for it.

You can tell this guy was a Republican.

And just like a Dim does, he diverts attention from the insane gas prices and deflects to electric cars. Definitely a sound and timely solution.

Now that covid is over, this guy is gonna go counter argument anywhere that’ll fulfill his need for self-gratifying trolling.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

From what I have heard, Putin has totally isolated himself. This would make a coup difficult. But, something will have to give in order for Russia to stop.

And if Putin is ousted, I'm sure he has a fairly large amount of supporters that need to be 'dealt with'. I have no idea how this doesn't end in a complete **** show.

It will likely have to end with an internal coup that leads to Putin being taking out for good.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

The thing I keep coming back to is the end game here...a few scenarios:

1. Russia eventually just demolishes Ukraine... Does the US do anything outside of what's currently being done? Do we just allow Russia to run Ukraine indefinitely?
2. Russia claims pseudo victory and controls part of Ukraine but not all...same question as above
3. Ukraine fends off low-morale troops and Russia quietly retreats (this seems unlikely). Does the US keep sanctions in place indefinitely? After X years? Does everyone forget what happened?
4. US gets directly involved and all hell breaks loose. Bad things happen. There is full-on war in Europe with Russia directly threatens the US.

I just don't see how things can ever go back to normal now unless we're going to stick our fingers in our ears and pretend everything is unicorns and rainbows.

WIth regards to #1 and #2, I am wondering if Russia has fully thought this through. Any puppet regime they put in place in Ukraine is going to face nonstop fighting and push back from the Ukrainian people. They will never fully have control of that country.

[ShockerPrez]

From what I have heard, Putin has totally isolated himself. This would make a coup difficult. But, something will have to give in order for Russia to stop.

And if Putin is ousted, I'm sure he has a fairly large amount of supporters that need to be 'dealt with'. I have no idea how this doesn't end in a complete **** show.

[pinstripers]

Putin's people will have to assassinate him. The West does not have the will.

[C0|dB|00ded]

Israel was making trips to and from Moscow and they came back with Putin is not stopping.

Sounds disturbing. I wonder why such "delicate" information was released to the press? Israel is not known to kowtow to Dictators. Almost sounds propagandistic. It's exactly what Putin would want them to say. Perhaps 5D chess. Assuage the tyrant's ego.

[SB Shock]

That's an interesting theory - conspiratorial in nature, but interesting.

Some theory, but also facts. Like a U.S. intelligence official in the last day or two said they expected Kyiv to fall in 2 days.

There also is a story yesterday that there are serious negotiations going on - that why Israel was making trips to and from Moscow and they came back with Putin is not stopping. Russia indicated they were willing to give Zelinsky time to think about accepting terms. This stuff may be in the Jeruselem post.

[C0|dB|00ded]

That's true, the F-16s go to Poland so that the Migs can immediately go to the Ukraine. So if the F-16s aren't in the war, then you REALLY have no argument other than you don't like the money side of the equation. Oooorrrrr, you are worried that the F-16s will end up in the war -- by Ukrainians by way of Poland, or by the Poles -- and used against the Russians. And at that point, there's no difference in provenance between the F-16s and the Stinger, Patriot, Javelin missiles.

How many Stinger, Patriot, Javelin missiles is Ukraine sitting on?

This is why I said "defacto" when discussing arming Ukraine with jets. We aren't... but we still are. It's our jets to Poland that frees jets to be sent to Ukraine. "We may as well just fly them to Ukraine ourselves".

How many Stinger, Patriot, Javelin missiles is Ukraine sitting on?

I have no idea. Hopefully a lot! And hopefully more are coming if they need them. Helping the Ukrainians defend their own skies is a bold move, but still one step short of "joining the conflict" IMO. Once we start providing them "first tier", "offensive" military equipment like tanks, planes, choppers etc., I believe Putin can make the claim that we are materially united with Ukraine against Russia. Then it's up to him what he does next. I'm sure we'd like to give him as many outs as possible so he doesn't feel trapped into wiping Ukraine off the face of the earth. Giving him outs while applying pressure to change course. A very delicate balance indeed.

I believe the world (and the U.S) have been handling the situation well so far. Very united, very calculated, very determined. All that's left is what we all don't want to see.

[C0|dB|00ded]

Would it be something if the Migs were already in the hands of Ukraine and all of this was a shell game to cause plausible deniability?

4D chess. But Russia has plenty of satellites likely locked in on those MIGs as we speak.

[C0|dB|00ded]

The US knew that Poland (or any other country) was not going to do this because then they would be in Putin cross-hairs. Poland decided to call out Biden Administration and basically embarrass them and get them to just shut up.

NATO and U.S. expected the Ukraine to fall in couple days, a week at most. So they were all-in on providing "promises" - they just didn't think that the Russians would screw-up this bad where they would might actually have the time to fulfil the promises.

That's an interesting theory - conspiratorial in nature, but interesting.

[wichshock65]

That's true, the F-16s go to Poland so that the Migs can immediately go to the Ukraine. So if the F-16s aren't in the war, then you REALLY have no argument other than you don't like the money side of the equation. Oooorrrrr, you are worried that the F-16s will end up in the war -- by Ukrainians by way of Poland, or by the Poles -- and used against the Russians. And at that point, there's no difference in provenance between the F-16s and the Stinger, Patriot, Javelin missiles.

How many Stinger, Patriot, Javelin missiles is Ukraine sitting on?

Would it be something if the Migs were already in the hands of Ukraine and all of this was a shell game to cause plausible deniability?

[Maizerunner08]

The thing I keep coming back to is the end game here...a few scenarios:

1. Russia eventually just demolishes Ukraine... Does the US do anything outside of what's currently being done? Do we just allow Russia to run Ukraine indefinitely?
2. Russia claims pseudo victory and controls part of Ukraine but not all...same question as above
3. Ukraine fends off low-morale troops and Russia quietly retreats (this seems unlikely). Does the US keep sanctions in place indefinitely? After X years? Does everyone forget what happened?
4. US gets directly involved and all hell breaks loose. Bad things happen. There is full-on war in Europe with Russia directly threatens the US.

I just don't see how things can ever go back to normal now unless we're going to stick our fingers in our ears and pretend everything is unicorns and rainbows.

[Kung Wu]

The F16's are for the Polish, not the Ukrainians.

That's true, the F-16s go to Poland so that the Migs can immediately go to the Ukraine. So if the F-16s aren't in the war, then you REALLY have no argument other than you don't like the money side of the equation. Oooorrrrr, you are worried that the F-16s will end up in the war -- by Ukrainians by way of Poland, or by the Poles -- and used against the Russians. And at that point, there's no difference in provenance between the F-16s and the Stinger, Patriot, Javelin missiles.

How many Stinger, Patriot, Javelin missiles is Ukraine sitting on?

[SB Shock]

I too was unhappy that we didn't accept Poland's offer, but I recognize the difference between Poland making a knee-jerk decision and the United States.

This was not a knee-jerk decision. The U.S. had been "virtue signaling" for a week now their desire that some of the eastern block NATO countries to consider sending their MIG to Ukraine and the US would replace them with F-16s.

The US knew that Poland (or any other country) was not going to do this because then they would be in Putin cross-hairs. Poland decided to call out Biden Administration and basically embarrass them and get them to just shut up.

NATO and U.S. expected the Ukraine to fall in couple days, a week at most. So they were all-in on providing "promises" - they just didn't think that the Russians would screw-up this bad where they would might actually have the time to fulfil the promises.

Europe and US just want this to end. This is refugee nightmare for Europe. This is bad for the economy and thus mid-terms for Biden.

Either Ukraine will give in to Russian demands, or the pause that has occurred the last couple days will end and Putin has indicated they won't stop until Ukraine is finished. This is not a war that Putin is going to lose.