Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[SB Shock]

An interesting set of data that I ran into. It will be interesting to see if the last 3 weeks are an artifact of lag reporting or a real trend.

CDC Excess Deaths.JPG

[SB Shock]

That is not the case for low risk testing, which is what you are advocating for. I know 30 people that have been tested, and the quickest was 36 hours.

I’m not arguing that we should test less. I’m not arguing that we shouldn’t test asymptomatic low risk individuals. I’m saying that if we are to get real value out of that, then ALL the tests need to be easy, painless, and immediate.

I'm sure it is coming. There is even XPRIZE competition being supported by major insurance to try and get what you are asking for done.

https://covidtesting.xprize.org/prizes/covidtesting/sponsors

Israel is doing research and have in trials different non-invasive methods of detecting COVID in less than 30 seconds.

1. One is a voice test.
2. Breath analyzer test which requires the patient to blow into a tube and it detects the virus using terra-hertz waves.
3. Saliva test that uses polyamino acids that isolate covid proteins.

I'm sure there are some in the U.S. working on non-invasive rapid tests, especially "at-home" type tests.

Abbot Laboratories supposedly is fielding a rapid test unit that can have results in 15 minutes. I think I read they had some issue with false negatives. Don't know if they got that worked out or not.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/health/2020/04/08/coronavirus-5-minute-test-where-you-can-get-in-tennessee/2968600001/

[wufan]

I'm sure it is coming. There is even XPRIZE competition being supported by major insurance to try and get what you are asking for done.

https://covidtesting.xprize.org/prizes/covidtesting/sponsors

Israel is doing research and have in trials different non-invasive methods of detecting COVID in less than 30 seconds.

1. One is a voice test.
2. Breath analyzer test which requires the patient to blow into a tube and it detects the virus using terra-hertz waves.
3. Saliva test that uses polyamino acids that isolate covid proteins.

I'm sure there are some in the U.S. working on non-invasive rapid tests, especially "at-home" type tests.

Abbot Laboratories supposedly is fielding a rapid test unit that can have results in 15 minutes. I think I read they had some issue with false negatives. Don't know if they got that worked out or not.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/health/2020/04/08/coronavirus-5-minute-test-where-you-can-get-in-tennessee/2968600001/

Once we have this I will FINALLY be on board with what you’ve been saying.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

That article is from May. Try again. It could change, but right now the science says kids aren’t passing the virus.

NYT article was recent, but it was behind a paywall.

Here's something that may be an indicator....
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020...bled/#comments

I will still say I believe the jury's still out. On the one hand, these are isolated data points, on the other hand, there are a whole lot of things we don't know about the virus, and we have already seen that it morphed. It could also be a new holotype (like the more contagious form that morphed from the 'original').

[wufan]

NYT article was recent, but it was behind a paywall.

Here's something that may be an indicator....
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020...bled/#comments

I will still say I believe the jury's still out. On the one hand, these are isolated data points, on the other hand, there are a whole lot of things we don't know about the virus, and we have already seen that it morphed. It could also be a new holotype (like the more contagious form that morphed from the 'original').

What is that an indicator of? That children can be infected? I know they can be infected, it’s just not dangerous. What in that article would make anyone think otherwise?

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

What is that an indicator of? That children can be infected? I know they can be infected, it’s just not dangerous. What in that article would make anyone think otherwise?

Infected and contagious. Not only that, there was at least one death in that population and a number of hospitalizations. A lot of these cases are **probably** multi-generational latinx's and they infect the grampa and grandma. That is what's bad.

My girlfriend's niece's daughter is in HS and came down with Covid. Her dad (was a gastrointernologist in Venezuela) and his wife are over at his other daughter's house in McAllen. Both daughters are doctors, but think how bad that might have been if they were living a hand-to-mouth existance and no other children were in the area.....

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

The problem is since the U.S. (CDC) screwed up the initial testing, the U.S. fell behind and is struggling to catch up. The U.S. ranks #1 with 1 active case of COVID per 145 people.

Other countries:
Belgium 1 per 269
France 1 per 801
Singapore 1 per 906
Germany 1 per 8,250
S. Korea 1 per 68,548

Here are the daily testing rates for these countries:

Belgium - 1.73 tests per 1,000
France - 1.15 tests per 1,000
Singapore - 0.84 tests per 1,000
Germany - 0.98 tests per 1,000
S. Korea - 0.14 tests per 1,000


U.S. daily testing rate...2.19 tests per 1,000...

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

An interesting set of data that I ran into. It will be interesting to see if the last 3 weeks are an artifact of lag reporting or a real trend.

CDC Excess Deaths.JPG

It's a real trend here. Hospitalizations are down a third, new infections down to about 350 or so a day, still a lot of people in ICU and on vents, but those numbers are going down, albeit slowly.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Infected and contagious. Not only that, there was at least one death in that population and a number of hospitalizations.

Again, article and not a peer reviewed study. Subject to opinion and sensationalism. Contagious yes, able to transmit easily, not likely.

Here in California, there has been 1 death of a person under 17. That is out of 9,520 deaths, or a 0.01% death rate. That one person had pre-existing conditions as well. A bigger risk, in my opinion, is the risk of increased mental illness, suicide, and drug use by children (particularly teens) as a result of the pandemic and lockdown.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

It's a real trend here. Hospitalizations are down a third, new infections down to about 350 or so a day, still a lot of people in ICU and on vents, but those numbers are going down, albeit slowly.

Where is the 4th of July surge that was inevitable?

[wufan]

Infected and contagious. Not only that, there was at least one death in that population and a number of hospitalizations. A lot of these cases are **probably** multi-generational latinx's and they infect the grampa and grandma. That is what's bad.

My girlfriend's niece's daughter is in HS and came down with Covid. Her dad (was a gastrointernologist in Venezuela) and his wife are over at his other daughter's house in McAllen. Both daughters are doctors, but think how bad that might have been if they were living a hand-to-mouth existance and no other children were in the area.....

There is nothing in there that says these kids are passing it to adults. The death was a coinfection and the child has SIDS on their death certificate per a report.

This is not dangerous for kids. Prepubescent kids aren’t passing this to adults. That’s the current science, and it’s been that way for at least two months.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Again, article and not a peer reviewed study. Subject to opinion and sensationalism. Contagious yes, able to transmit easily, not likely.

Here in California, there has been 1 death of a person under 17. That is out of 9,520 deaths, or a 0.01% death rate. That one person had pre-existing conditions as well. A bigger risk, in my opinion, is the risk of increased mental illness, suicide, and drug use by children (particularly teens) as a result of the pandemic and lockdown.

It's not just the kids with mental health problems. I am in meetings most of the day, people seem to be a lot more defensive and have shorter fuses. A couple of people I know got campers and took a working vacation (which I thought was odd behavrior). An Army Sergeant in San Antonio took his family out (I think it was 4 or 5 people), I am suspicious that it was from the pandemic.

So what kind of a policy do you do? Lock down to reduce spread and needless deaths at the risk of increased mental health issues OR not do anything, keep everything open, no risk mitigation and watch people in their 20's, 30's and 40's die (let alone healthy old people)? It's easier (at least at this time) to quantify the death rate from the virus, so that's probably why they are focused on lowering the death count from the virus. I'm sure at some point we will have more information and it will be better quantified, but that will probably be after this is over.

Also note that in areas where latinx's live, this virus is especially deadly to them. Much higher rate of infection, much worse morbidity. Google covid and Rio Grande Valley and see what comes back. Laredo and the valley were very tightly locked down until our governor overrode their local orders. Laredo had a curfew and was jailing people for violating that and not wearing a mask in public.

And by the way, I asked you to produce evidence backing your positions up, but apparently you couldn't do it. So you look like a hypocrite when you take shots at me like that, just saying. Why don't you show the evidence that you have or quit criticizing.

[Kung Wu]

Lock down to reduce spread and needless deaths at the risk of increased mental health issues OR not do anything, keep everything open, no risk mitigation
and watch people in their 20's, 30's and 40's die (let alone healthy old people)?

Ummm ....

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

It's not just the kids with mental health problems. I am in meetings most of the day, people seem to be a lot more defensive and have shorter fuses. A couple of people I know got campers and took a working vacation (which I thought was odd behavrior). An Army Sergeant in San Antonio took his family out (I think it was 4 or 5 people), I am suspicious that it was from the pandemic.

So what kind of a policy do you do? Lock down to reduce spread and needless deaths at the risk of increased mental health issues OR not do anything, keep everything open, no risk mitigation and watch people in their 20's, 30's and 40's die (let alone healthy old people)? It's easier (at least at this time) to quantify the death rate from the virus, so that's probably why they are focused on lowering the death count from the virus. I'm sure at some point we will have more information and it will be better quantified, but that will probably be after this is over.

Also note that in areas where latinx's live, this virus is especially deadly to them. Much higher rate of infection, much worse morbidity. Google covid and Rio Grande Valley and see what comes back. Laredo and the valley were very tightly locked down until our governor overrode their local orders. Laredo had a curfew and was jailing people for violating that and not wearing a mask in public.

And by the way, I asked you to produce evidence backing your positions up, but apparently you couldn't do it. So you look like a hypocrite when you take shots at me like that, just saying. Why don't you show the evidence that you have or quit criticizing.

Bro, did you not see the FOUR studies I quoted above that were all published in medical journals??? What more evidence to you want Jack?

I will tell you what I think should happen. Common freaking sense!!! Not hysteria and not complete idiocy to the other extreme (refusing to wear masks, going to crowded bars, protesting in large groups, etc.). Those who are high risk (elderly and / or with pre-existing conditions) should quarantine and not leave their homes. Those who are healthy and low risk should go about their normal lives (work, shopping, school, etc.) and take necessary and recommended precautions. It's not that hard to figure out. We don't need extremist behavior.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Ummm ....

Yep. We've been told for a month and a half now that all of these young people will end up dying, and it just hasn't happened. The "lag" is...well...lagging. Sweden is the model!!