Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[jdmee]

Dr Deborah Brix has just talked about the "scary" numbers that are out there. She basically said those numbers are based on doing NOTHING. We are not doing nothing. Nowhere are the numbers/data indicating anything near those doom and gloom numbers. If you look at the wuhan numbers if the actual, including asymptomatic cases, number is 10x the reported number that is only 600,000 out of 80 million. Not close to the doom and gloom.

[wufan]

And you may be right, in fact, I'm inclined to agree with you given the difference in tone from Gov. Cuomo between yesterday and today (did he get some good news from his public health people?). I'm also factoring in the lack of social distancing we have observed at Florida & Texas beaches, Mardi Gras and all the gathering that was going on in downtown Manhattan..

Given Mardi Gras was two weeks ago and seeing what La. is going through right now, it is not impossible to imagine a much worse scenario in another week or so when the Spring Breakers spread starts (if it does), I'm kind of baking it in, let's hope I'm wrong. Note my thought is that the problems in Italy were precisely because the medical facilities were overwhelmed there.

So, on the Mardi Gras hypothesis....Mardi Grad was 5 weeks ago. That was One month prior to any quarantine activity, and days after the cruise ship folks arrived in the US for treatment. I’m not sold on the idea that Mardi Gras was the cause of the LA issues.

[wufan]

Logical and factual.

The thing that the doctor's and nurses are afraid of is the collateral damage that comes with the hospitals being overwhelmed by Covid patients. We've got to get the Covid people into mass temporary hospitals if this gets ugly so there is still a little room for the "normal" patients who take up 75% of the ICU beds on any given day in America. They need critical care and need to be able to receive it without the bonus Covid infection while they are admitted.

So many horrific scenarios that I haven't even spoken about. I don't even think I'm being "doom and gloom" at all.

I apologize in advance to those I've scared further. Someone will come along and post death rate numbers of .0000001234 in a few seconds.

Please stay away from others for a few weeks.

I think this is my last post on the subject. I gave it the ol' college try in hopes of saving a few Shockernetters.

I do hope this pandemic gets killed off sooner rather than later. :(

Good luck and stay safe!


T


...

There are plenty of reasons we should be concerned and should take this seriously. I agree that we need a level of quarantine. I agree that shutting down parts of the economy is the right idea. I also believe we need to restart it as soon as possible. Right now, we are indeed on pace for 1 million confirmed by May, but I am hopeful that by restricting as we are that we will turn the tide by April 1 and start to see a log of less than 1.

In the end, cold, what you are saying on here non-stop is the equivalent of very progressive that ever called a Republican a nazi, homophobic, xenophobic, racist. It’s similar to Trump saying his phone call was perfect, and that his inauguration was the biggest ever. When you add such hyperbole, you lose your effect.

[ShockingButTrue]

Don't jump just yet Shockernetters. It's gon' be alright.

In a country of 327.2 (that would be us) million the latest numbers (as of 10 pm Greenwich Time) reveal 3 out of every 1 million people have died from this Chinese Bat Flu. Total cases are 197 out of every 1 million.

In the new Ground Zero (Spain) the numbers are, of course, higher; 124 out of every 1 million have died, and there are 1,230 cases reported for every 1 million.

So, can some of our resident epidemiologists here on Shockernet, or better yet, some of our lettered research mathematicians, predict what that means for the future of mankind? And if a whole lot more people are infected than we know, how would that affect the mortality rate, vs. just plain uneducated guessing, please?

racist.0.jpg

[ShockingButTrue]

Doubling down.

As a matter of fact here is an Oxford chart that predicts 1 million people in the UK as already being infected. The head of the study, Sunetra Gupta, said she's surprised at such -ahem- "unqualified acceptance of the Imperial Model (emphasis mine)" :


ET3mfGEXgAEzTIj.png


Heck, maybe several of you Shockernetters have already had it, or still have it! Is that viewpoint rational and understandable?

[ShockTalk]

I'm glad the "non-sensational" stuff is making you feel better. Maybe you feel good enough to take the kid out to Chucky Cheese tonight?

While you guys are working hard to soothe your fears, the experts in charge of this situation will be preparing for the worst.

The only reason I came on these threads to post was because of the ridiculously uninformed and irresponsible narrative that was being spun. It's been a political talking point amongst several conservative radio talk show hosts and not surprisingly started poisoning these threads. I figured if I shared a little wisdom coming straight from the medical community, it might matter. Hopefully it did.

Stay safe everyone!


T


...

You don't fit in the "and everyone else" category????

[wufan]

Don't jump just yet Shockernetters. It's gon' be alright.

In a country of 327.2 (that would be us) million the latest numbers (as of 10 pm Greenwich Time) reveal 3 out of every 1 million people have died from this Chinese Bat Flu. Total cases are 197 out of every 1 million.

In the new Ground Zero (Spain) the numbers are, of course, higher; 124 out of every 1 million have died, and there are 1,230 cases reported for every 1 million.

So, can some of our resident epidemiologists here on Shockernet, or better yet, some of our lettered research mathematicians, predict what that means for the future of mankind? And if a whole lot more people are infected than we know, how would that affect the mortality rate, vs. just plain uneducated guessing, please?

racist.0.jpg

Well, mankind will be fine. A number of individuals will not.

if “a whole lot more people are infected than we know” are infected, then the mortality is lower, “an unknowable” amount. Don’t you understand how maths works?

[wufan]

Doubling down.

As a matter of fact here is an Oxford chart that predicts 1 million people in the UK as already being infected. The head of the study, Sunetra Gupta, said she's surprised at such -ahem- "unqualified acceptance of the Imperial Model (emphasis mine)" :


ET3mfGEXgAEzTIj.png


Heck, maybe several of you Shockernetters have already had it, or still have it! Is that viewpoint rational and understandable?

Not really. It’s an uneducated guess in itself.

[ShockerFever]

I'm glad the "non-sensational" stuff is making you feel better. Maybe you feel good enough to take the kid out to Chucky Cheese tonight?

While you guys are working hard to soothe your fears, the experts in charge of this situation will be preparing for the worst.

The only reason I came on these threads to post was because of the ridiculously uninformed and irresponsible narrative that was being spun. It's been a political talking point amongst several conservative radio talk show hosts and not surprisingly started poisoning these threads. I figured if I shared a little wisdom coming straight from the medical community, it might matter. Hopefully it did.

Stay safe everyone!


T


...

I appreciate your care for human life Cold. I really do.

Let’s hope your predictions are as sound as they were regarding Casey Crawford, Orupke, etc, among others.

[C0|dB|00ded]

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/this-virus-unfortunately-is-perfect-er-doc-who-survived-ebola-shares-dire-warning/2343208/

This Virus Unfortunately Is Perfect:’ NYC ER Doc Who Survived Ebola Shares Dire Warning

The New York emergency room doctor who survived Ebola five years ago and is now on the frontlines of the city's battle against COVID-19 has a stark warning: he's more scared of this new virus than the one that almost killed him.

Craig Spencer, an ER doctor at Columbia University Medical Center, got Ebola in West Africa in 2014 trying to fight the outbreak there. He gained a new notoriety Monday with a series of tweets about a night in the emergency room, where 90 percent of his patients had coronavirus. He was at it again Tuesday, with even more dire warnings about the situation in his hospital.

"The reason that I've said in many ways this coronavirus pandemic is worse than working in West Africa during Ebola is because I never once worried about my personal protective equpment in West Africa, and this virus unfortunately is perfect in the sense that it spreads really really well, it hits all age groups and it's just … it's really scary the potential this virus has," Spencer said.

Sorry, wanted to share one last bit of "hyperbole".

I scare because I care.

Peace, love, and health Shocker brothers/sisters.


T


...

[wufan]

IF is right. That's the point.

Worldwide it's not even close to 1/2 million. China's numbers are steadily decreasing by the hour. Hysterical much? Do you catch my drift?

Welp, we will hit 1/2 million tomorrow. That’s 10 days after you made this prediction. I guess “if” is right.

[ShockingButTrue]

Here's another dissenting opinion among the experts (the ones not on shockernet that is) for you to investigate wufan:

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid...estimates.html (well constructed and as reliable as any other)

This one is a counter to the fear-mongers among us:

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/cov...-over-hysteria

>>>>> Here is a -ahem- lab study of the virus in isolation (the Diamond Princess Cruise anyone?). Slightly less than half passengers who contracted it showed zero symptoms:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/...ess-mysteries/

The coronavirus mass panic is not justified (Professor Peter Gotzsche). It's a pdf:

https://www.deadlymedicines.dk/wp-co...-justified.pdf

The average age of death of those infected in Italy is 80 (CEBM).

The real numbers show right now the death rate is 3 in a million in the USA, with 207 cases per million. It's like Idiocracy come to life.


#Don't shoot the messenger

[wufan]

Here's another dissenting opinion among the experts (the ones not on shockernet that is) for you to investigate wufan:

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid...estimates.html (well constructed and as reliable as any other)

This one is a counter to the fear-mongers among us:

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/cov...-over-hysteria

>>>>> Here is a -ahem- lab study of the virus in isolation (the Diamond Princess Cruise anyone?). Slightly less than half passengers who contracted it showed zero symptoms:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/...ess-mysteries/

The coronavirus mass panic is not justified (Professor Peter Gotzsche). It's a pdf:

https://www.deadlymedicines.dk/wp-co...-justified.pdf

The average age of death of those infected in Italy is 80 (CEBM).

The real numbers show right now the death rate is 3 in a million in the USA, with 207 cases per million. It's like Idiocracy come to life.


#Don't shoot the messenger

Did you know that disease fatality rates are not calculated as deaths against an entire population, rather as deaths against the infected population?

What do you think this bizarre cluster of articles tells us?

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Did you know that disease fatality rates are not calculated as deaths against an entire population, rather as deaths against the infected population?

What do you think this bizarre cluster of articles tells us?

I don't know....perhaps that he's the board moron?

That he thinks money is more important than life?

That he's a wanna-be propagandist?

I will let his friends and neighbors figure that one out.....

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Here's another dissenting opinion among the experts (the ones not on shockernet that is) for you to investigate wufan:

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid...estimates.html (well constructed and as reliable as any other)

This one is a counter to the fear-mongers among us:

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/cov...-over-hysteria

>>>>> Here is a -ahem- lab study of the virus in isolation (the Diamond Princess Cruise anyone?). Slightly less than half passengers who contracted it showed zero symptoms:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/...ess-mysteries/

The coronavirus mass panic is not justified (Professor Peter Gotzsche). It's a pdf:

https://www.deadlymedicines.dk/wp-co...-justified.pdf

The average age of death of those infected in Italy is 80 (CEBM).

The real numbers show right now the death rate is 3 in a million in the USA, with 207 cases per million. It's like Idiocracy come to life.


#Don't shoot the messenger

So can you go stand over there by Glen Beck & Dan Patrick?