Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

I appreciate your care for human life Cold. I really do.

Let’s hope your predictions are as sound as they were regarding Casey Crawford, Orupke, etc, among others.

I laughed out loud super hard because you're not wrong.

With that said.. Diseases arent basketball players. But still hella funny!

[Kung Wu]

I don't know....perhaps that he's the board moron?

Please stop with the name calling. Argue numbers and stats all you want, but at minimum check that behavior at the door. He has been asked to as well.

[WstateU]

Please stop with the name calling. Argue numbers and stats all you want, but at minimum check that behavior at the door. He has been asked to as well.

Sorry, this isn't "numbers and stats"... don't ban me bro...

[Kung Wu]

For future discussion sake, let's all agree that:

R0 = 2

This means that _unchecked_, every person that has coronavirus, is likely to infect 2 other people.

In reality I think most researchers believe it to be between 2 and 2.5 for coronavirus, but obviously this can very depending on location and circumstances.

I'm choosing 2 because then we are dealing with this exponential:

2^n

and that makes software engineers horny. They can count by 2^n in their sleep to at least n=15. They understand the growth rate of it intimately. It makes math easy. There are heaps and tons of examples with that equation all over the internet.

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725

[Kung Wu]

Very early on the Chinese calculated that the percent of mild cases of a coronavirus population is a little over 80%. Since then an international collaboration resulted in close to 86%.

Like R0, it's probably dependent somewhat on locale, but we could use either 80/20 or 85/15, and both would be "good enough".

This is a REALLY useful tool to have in your tool belt.

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32064853 (In the abstract you will see the Chinese calculated it as 80.9%.

[Kung Wu]

It also important to understand that any figures we get are likely to be at least 4-5 days behind the 'actual number' and potentially even farther, given the incubation period and time to get testing results. A lot of pessimism comes from the fact that even with the measures taken over the last week, we may still have 6-14 days of exponential growth we won't see reflected in the data yet.

True there is a lag, however it's not dire or even reason for pessimism -- until you are toward the _end_ of the growth curve. The exponential curve looks like:



As a country, so long as we continue to isolate, we will lengthen the flat side of the curve, and adding 4-5 days doesn't really introduce substantial pain. Now hot spots like New York are certainly climbing the curve faster than the country as a whole, so the hot spots have to be on it.

[MelvinLoudermilk]

Gallup - approval of their handling of the coronavirus:

Hospitals 88-10
State governments 82-17
Your employer 82-14
Trump 60-38
Congress 59-37
News media 44-56


How did the media get 44%

[RoyalShock]

A co-worker forwarded this to me. It's a social-distancing scoreboard by state and county using travel data. (Dig into their methodology and do a search on how they get their data. It's kind of creepy.) But it juxtaposes their data (assigning each state/county a grade) against confirmed cases to, I guess, see how social distancing is working among different geographic populations.

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

[wsushox1]

Gallup - approval of their handling of the coronavirus:

Hospitals 88-10
State governments 82-17
Your employer 82-14
Trump 60-38
Congress 59-37
News media 44-56


How did the media get 44%

I know I'm going to get absolutely flamed for this, but I think the most of the "media" has done a good job of getting the severity of the situation out, telling anecdotal stories of hospitals in distress, and covering the changes in daily american life quite well.

Of course, I don't watch MSNBC, CNN, or FOX (primarily CNBC/Fox Business) so my perspective might be skewed.

[jdmee]

Italy's number of new cases has dropped 4 days in a row.

On Wednesday 57,521 people were infected with COVID-19 in Italy, 3,491 more than Tuesday. The daily rise on Tuesday had been 3,612 while on Monday it had been 3,780 and on Sunday 3,957.

[jdmee]

Dr Brix explaining the numbers

https://twitter.com/i/status/1242952507778912257

Dr Brix explaining the importance of kids heeding the advice of social distancing

https://twitter.com/i/status/1242949487930355714

[ShockBand]

A co-worker forwarded this to me. It's a social-distancing scoreboard by state and county using travel data. (Dig into their methodology and do a search on how they get their data. It's kind of creepy.) But it juxtaposes their data (assigning each state/county a grade) against confirmed cases to, I guess, see how social distancing is working among different geographic populations.

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

So if I read their methodology right they are harvesting data from "anonymized" cell phone data, is that what you gather as well? Not surprising what all data is available in aggregate form. I keep telling my students if they are into math and stats that data science might be a GREAT career field!

[ShockBand]

For future discussion sake, let's all agree that:

R0 = 2

This means that _unchecked_, every person that has coronavirus, is likely to infect 2 other people.

In reality I think most researchers believe it to be between 2 and 2.5 for coronavirus, but obviously this can very depending on location and circumstances.

I'm choosing 2 because then we are dealing with this exponential:

2^n

and that makes software engineers horny. They can count by 2^n in their sleep to at least n=15. They understand the growth rate of it intimately. It makes math easy. There are heaps and tons of examples with that equation all over the internet.

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725

So 2^n = me love you long time?

[Kung Wu]

So 2^n = me love you long time?

Rowr

[WuDrWu]

Trying to help someone with Unemployment information, called the KDOL and got a voicemail message that Gov Kelly has deemed the workers non-essential and are off for 15 days.


Paid I'm sure.


You CANNOT make it up.