Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[1972Shocker]

Wuhan Residents Give a More Accurate Number of What the Death Toll There Really Is

https://www.redstate.com/brandon_mor...ere-really-is/

[Kung Wu]

Didn't know if you data hounds had seen this site or not. I have not clicked on their methodology link to look at it further.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

It's difficult to square this with reality. They projected we needed 86,568 beds as of yesterday, but this site reports we had 22,303 hospitalized as of yesterday. Not sure what the cause of the discrepancy is.

[Kung Wu]

Gotcha , let's hope that second derivative gets steeply negative quickly and doesn't hover near zero too long.

Ooof, I may have spoke too soon. New York's trend doesn't look as good today from a tapering perspective. uuugh

[wsushox1]

It's difficult to square this with reality. They projected we needed 86,568 beds as of yesterday, but this site reports we had 22,303 hospitalized as of yesterday. Not sure what the cause of the discrepancy is.

It'a probably because there are so many dynamic variables that can't be modeled in real time and would need historical, empirically driven data to derive the proper "constant".

Such as:

-Rationing factor of hospitals (sending marginal patients home)
-Effect of social distancing
-Effect of asymptomatic spread

The models, unlike weather models, engineering models, etc. aren't following uniform laws of physics and thermodynamics.

Once this crisis subsides, and we can get a wide serological survey out there to determine the true spread, modelers should be able to build dynamic models with empirically derived constants. Will be super interesting and groundbreaking, in some ways. The ODE's and PDE's will be flowing!

[wsushox1]

It's difficult to square this with reality. They projected we needed 86,568 beds as of yesterday, but this site reports we had 22,303 hospitalized as of yesterday. Not sure what the cause of the discrepancy is.

Here is the git repository for their model:

https://github.com/ihmeuw-msca/CurveFit

Python, specifically numpy and pandas, is my native language so going to take some time this evening to dig through this.

[RoyalShock]

Didn't know if you data hounds had seen this site or not. I have not clicked on their methodology link to look at it further.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I couldn't find whether the "beds available" is a total or the number currently not in use. If it's the former, New York state only has 718 ICU beds in total, which I find difficult to believe. Surely that's a currently available number?

[1972Shocker]

Chinese-backed company's mission to source Australian medical supplies

https://www.smh.com.au/national/chin...25-p54du8.html

[ShockBand]

I found this video helpful in me getting a better understanding of how simulations run.

[1972Shocker]

Chinese Markets Reopen — And They Still Sell Bats, Dogs And Cats

https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/29/c...ats-dogs-cats/

[jdmee]

That is a sad story indeed. Looking back at this and what has happened to NO I am glad the AAC had the good sense to cancel the tournament not only for AAC fans but for the city of Fort Worth. Thank you AAC because we had tickets and were there and would have gone if the games were played.

That is a good point. How many cases in the Big East towns have been contributed to travel to NYC.

[wsushox1]

1,257 new confirmed in Louisiana yesterday, moving total from 4,027 to 5,284.

54 deaths yesterday. Total deaths stand at 229.

Damn. That is a huge jump in both categories.

[SB Shock]

Yes, but testing is far more prevalent now to help a bit with the emerging hot spots. We're popping out 100,000 tests a day nationally. And I think like only 20,000 of those are attributed to New York, while they are currently 40% of the current case problem.

Testing is still a problem. It is ramping up, but it is not evenly distributed and for the most part, they are not getting the results back in fast enough manner.

What I'm seeing in the data is the flattening of the curve (at least in NY), but until we are testing with no restrictions, you are not going to stop this. You have to identify, quarantine and track down contacts and get them quarantine. Every day there is a delay in isolating increase how much spread there is.

NJ, Cali, Fla, Michigan, Georgia, Louisiana look like they are losing control. NY data today didn't seem as optimistic as it had been the last several days.

[ShockingButTrue]

Sweden Opens For Business With Some Restrictions Over Concern About Economic Damage

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52076293

It will be interesting to monitor this situation going forward.

[Kung Wu]

Testing is still a problem. It is ramping up, but it is not evenly distributed and for the most part, they are not getting the results back in fast enough manner.

What I'm seeing in the data is the flattening of the curve (at least in NY), but until we are testing with no restrictions, you are not going to stop this. You have to identify, quarantine and track down contacts and get them quarantine. Every day there is a delay in isolating increase how much spread there is.

NJ, Cali, Fla, Michigan, Georgia, Louisiana look like they are losing control. NY data today didn't seem as optimistic as it had been the last several days.

Agreed.

[wufan]

Testing is still a problem. It is ramping up, but it is not evenly distributed and for the most part, they are not getting the results back in fast enough manner.

What I'm seeing in the data is the flattening of the curve (at least in NY), but until we are testing with no restrictions, you are not going to stop this. You have to identify, quarantine and track down contacts and get them quarantine. Every day there is a delay in isolating increase how much spread there is.

NJ, Cali, Fla, Michigan, Georgia, Louisiana look like they are losing control. NY data today didn't seem as optimistic as it had been the last several days.

Totally agree. In order to accurately assess the situation we need to know not only the severe cases, but also the mild and asymptomatic cases. Testing is being handled very differently across the country due to types of tests, lab abilities, regulations, shortages, etc. Looking at Germany, if they are broadly testing, then the mortality is much lower. It will also make it possible to selectively quarantine and keep the economy running.

More testing is the key! People should be tested multiple times. Federal regs and uncertainties are holding this up.

One last thing we need is guidelines on reporting positives and negatives and what is considered a confirmed Coronavirus death vs a death that also had Coronavirus. How many tests are being given to possible infected vs retesting confirmed infected, etc.