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I have come here to chew bubblegum and kickass ... and I'm all out of bubblegum. -
We’ll see if you think that in a week.Originally posted by ShockingButTrue View PostThe mountains are calling, and I must go.Comment
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In Italy, nearly 800 people died of coronavirus yesterday. In the US, about 800 people died yesterday. Italy's deaths have not peaked.
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The numbers speak for themselves. Why the panic? Do you have different numbers to post?Originally posted by wsushox1 View Post
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A couple of comments:Originally posted by ShockingButTrue View Post
The seasonal flu numbers are estimates based on predictive numbers over a year. The Coronavirus numbers are confirmed cases in the last six weeks. You are talking about an order of one or several magnitude difference there.
You have a snapshot of numbers. No one is worried about where the numbers are today. They are worried about where the numbers will be in 60 days. You need to look at the growth chart. To illustrate this, look at your chart from four days ago. The flu deaths increased 5%. The Coronavirus deaths increased 200%.Livin the dreamComment
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Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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huh?Originally posted by CBB_Fan View Post
Deuces Valley.
... No really, deuces.
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"Enjoy the ride."
- a smart manComment
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The US death rate for 2020 is around 8.88 per 10,000 per year. Multiple 8.88 by 33100, divide by 365 to get to your average daily deaths.Originally posted by Kung Wu View PostComment
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I don't know the answer, but I just hope the economical carnage we are inflicting on ourselves is worth it. Because it's easy for someone who can work at home to say everyone should stay home.
But not everyone, and I would feel confident in saying that those in the bottom income levels in our society, can work from home.
So, as usual, the well off are going to be fine. Yeah their 401ks are gonna be set back a few years, but they'll be fine. That person that had their job for a year thinking things were starting to look good, just got kicked in the sac again. And the single mom who was making some decent money as a receptionist now.... just sucks. The burden seems very regressive.
But, I just hope this was the right thing to do. Cause I wonder if someone could have the choice of taking their chances with the virus or their job, which one they would choose. That choice is being made for them by mayors and governors right now. Cause if they don't do anything, they get raked over the coals by the people with voices. So they have to do 'something'.
And, I'll admit that I don't have confidence that politicians look out for my best interests. They look out for theirs. And whatever happens, they'll be fine. So will the ones with the voices.
Just the stuff going through my head right now.
"When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!Comment
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Why are you calculating something the CDC and state health departments post daily for you?Originally posted by CBB_Fan View Post
Where are you getting your numbers?
Why is your calculation of 800 total deaths IN ONE DAY so different than our state health departments' actual post of 268 TOTAL since the dawn of time?
Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Its perfectly okay to be worried its just not okay to "panic" Panic being subjective and open to debate.Originally posted by ShockerPrez View Post
I told a friend last night, If I'm not feeling well, I call in and theres no questions asked. I have PTO accrued and its paid for. I think we all agree that immediately makes me luckier than a majority in the workforce. I picked up a PT job for extra Christmas money (fast food). Woke up one morning feverish and was told if I don't produce a doctors note or show up for my shift then I would be terminated.
The puking or dying way of things is great in theory but in the scenario above who do you think is more likely to spread a virus and who is more likely "safer" from the a virus? If theres anything I hope changes going forward... its that.
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My assumption is he's comparing Italy's COVID Death with the average Death Rate in the USA (non COVID)Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
It still doesnt make any sense.Comment
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I think so too, however his numbers are wrong. 7500 people die every day, or 800 people per 100000 die annually. Not sure where 800 in the US yesterday came from.Originally posted by Awesome Sauce Malone View PostLivin the dreamComment
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Livin the dreamComment
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Yep, off by a factor of 10. For whatever reason, I was sure I read per 10,000 rather than 1000. So Italy is only seeing about 1/10 of the US's combined deaths to heart attack, cancer, suicide, etc from this and this is about 50% of their normal all causes total.
That said, it is still not a 'good' number. A better comparison would be Italy's daily deaths to the flu, which was 0.66 per day (240 deaths). Still plenty of reason to take 800 daily deaths seriously. ARDS is no joke.
The following is from a far-left, liberally biased site (mother Jones) , but I believe it is a factual account from a doctor on the front lines:
I apologize for the misinformation, but I don't want anyone to take that as an excuse to go ignore social distancing. It IS that bad. Maybe not here, maybe not yet, but everything I'm seeing has suggested the reaction to the disease was appropriate post total FU regarding the initial testing situation."It’s called acute respiratory distress syndrome, ARDS. That means the lungs are filled with fluid. And it’s notable for the way the X-ray looks: The entire lung is basically whited out from fluid. Patients with ARDS are extremely difficult to oxygenate. It has a really high mortality rate, about 40%. The way to manage it is to put a patient on a ventilator. The additional pressure helps the oxygen go into the bloodstream.
“Normally, ARDS is something that happens over time as the lungs get more and more inflamed. But with this virus, it seems like it happens overnight. When you’re healthy, your lung is made up of little balloons. Like a tree is made out of a bunch of little leaves, the lung is made of little air sacs that are called the alveoli. When you breathe in, all of those little air sacs inflate, and they have capillaries in the walls, little blood vessels. The oxygen gets from the air in the lung into the blood so it can be carried around the body.
“Typically with ARDS, the lungs become inflamed. It’s like inflammation anywhere: If you have a burn on your arm, the skin around it turns red from additional blood flow. The body is sending it additional nutrients to heal. The problem is, when that happens in your lungs, fluid and extra blood starts going to the lungs. Viruses can injure cells in the walls of the alveoli, so the fluid leaks into the alveoli. A telltale sign of ARDS in an X-ray is what’s called ‘ground glass opacity,’ like an old-fashioned ground glass privacy window in a shower. And lungs look that way because fluid is white on an X-ray, so the lung looks like white ground glass, or sometimes pure white, because the lung is filled with so much fluid, displacing where the air would normally be.”
“With our coronavirus patients, once they’re on ventilators, most need about the highest settings that we can do. About 90% oxygen, and 16 of PEEP, positive end-expiratory pressure, which keeps the lung inflated. This is nearly as high as I’ve ever seen. The level we’re at means we are running out of options.
“In my experience, this severity of ARDS is usually more typical of someone who has a near drowning experience—they have a bunch of dirty water in their lungs—or people who inhale caustic gas. Especially for it to have such an acute onset like that. I’ve never seen a microorganism or an infectious process cause such acute damage to the lungs so rapidly. That was what really shocked me.”
“It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, ‘Holy ****, this is not the flu.’ Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube and out of his mouth. The ventilator should have been doing the work of breathing but he was still gasping for air, moving his mouth, moving his body, struggling. We had to restrain him. With all the coronavirus patients, we’ve had to restrain them. They really hyperventilate, really struggle to breathe. When you’re in that mindstate of struggling to breathe and delirious with fever, you don’t know when someone is trying to help you, so you’ll try to rip the breathing tube out because you feel it is choking you, but you are drowning.
“When someone has an infection, I’m used to seeing the normal colors you’d associate with it: greens and yellows. The coronavirus patients with ARDS have been having a lot of secretions that are actually pink because they’re filled with blood cells that are leaking into their airways. They are essentially drowning in their own blood and fluids because their lungs are so full. So we’re constantly having to suction out the secretions every time we go into their rooms.”
“Before this, we were all joking. It’s grim humor. If you are exposed to the virus and test positive and go on quarantine, you get paid. We were all joking: I want to get the coronavirus because then I get a paid vacation from work. And once I saw these patients with it, I was like, ‘Holy ****, I do not want to catch this and I don’t want anyone I know to catch this.’
Last edited by CBB_Fan; March 22, 2020, 12:12 PM.Comment
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