Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[SB Shock]

I think we can now debunk two common myths floating around:

1) I/my community had this weeks/months ago - no you didn't

2) Millions of people already have this all over the country - no they don't

What do you believe is the true death rate%?

[Kung Wu]

What do you believe is the true death rate%?

Using my worst case math guess, the true death rate would range anywhere from

670/214,000 = 0.31%

but probably more realistically

670/115,000 = 0.6ish%

If I were using it in a calc for projections I'd probably use 0.5 to keep it easy and then try to dig up numbers to dial it in more accurately.

--

BTW, if Cold is right and 10,000,000 of us have it already but only 675 have died from it at this point, then it's about 675/10,000,000 = 0.0000675 = 0.00675% <--- So we just crashed the economy for something a fraction of the problem of flu (1/14th).

And if Cold is right and that 1/30th of the population already has it, then we should project that 100% of us will have it and the total deaths will be 670 x 30 = 21,300 -- so why are we locking down states again?

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Using my worst case math guess, the true death rate would range anywhere from

670/214,000 = 0.31%

but probably more realistically

670/115,000 = 0.6ish%

If I were using it in a calc for projections I'd probably use 0.5 to keep it easy and then try to dig up numbers to dial it in more accurately.

--

BTW, if Cold is right and 10,000,000 of us have it already but only 675 have died from it at this point, then it's about 675/10,000,000 = 0.0000675 = 0.00675% <--- So we just crashed the economy for something a fraction of the problem of flu (1/14th).

And if Cold is right and that 1/30th of the population already has it, then we should project that 100% of us will have it and the total deaths will be 670 x 30 = 21,300 -- so why are we locking down states again?

Damn, it’s like the Surgeon General doesn’t come to Shockernet for stats.

Living in Louisiana and seeing the impact gives me a much different perspective.

Can the rural states all avoid any contact with large cities? If they can, great. If not, the false belief of 7 days of spreading could wipe out a community.

[1979Shocker]

An intensive-care expert broke down just how contagious the coronavirus is, showing how one person could end up infecting 59,000 in a snowball effect

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Damn, it’s like the Surgeon General doesn’t come to Shockernet for stats.

Living in Louisiana and seeing the impact gives me a much different perspective.

Can the rural states all avoid any contact with large cities? If they can, great. If not, the false belief of 7 days of spreading could wipe out a community.

Early on, I stated that I felt the death rate was a 'lagging' indicator. Therefore, taking current numbers and making projections is not going to provide an accurate result..

Here's what is going to happen.......as this crisis drags on, medical facilities will be overwhelmed and people will die. This will happen in NY, Louisiana (and perhaps Texas and Florida, for example). Reason for that is people ignoring warnings from public health officials. The Louisiana hotspot is **probably** due to Mardi Gras.

As medical facilities in hotspot areas become overwhelmed, people will die waiting for treatment, and as a result, the observed death rate will go up significantly. For instance, Gov. Cuomo (who is being advised where the spread is situated and had projections of number of really ill people coming at them) is probably asking for a few more ventilators than he needs (but he's asking for 30K), which would probably cover a worst-case scenario.

He actually got 400.

I would say if he doesn't get a whole bunch of ventilators immediately, he's probably looking at 20,000 deaths. In the meantime, the Federal government can't tell us exactly how many ventilators are on hand and where they might be.

Louisiana is in the same horrible position, looking like their medical facilities will be overwhelmed in a few days.

So here's my observation on rural states:
1) Cities (and towns) without a teaching hospital will be in terrible shape. This is because the medical care is worse in rural areas than cities AND the hospital capacity is smaller. The Lombardy area in Italy is not highly populated (Milan there are 4.3 million people in the metro area, which constitutes most of the population of Lombardy) when you get outside Milan, it looks more like Indiana or downstate Illinois and less like an urban area.
2) Rural states will not escape this virus, it's already out there and spreading. Once community transmission starts, there will be a whole bunch of people get sick.

And in the meantime, our elected leaders are trying to pump sunshine up our ___. From my vantage point, it looks like by the time we get to Easter this will be much worse than it is now.

[pie n eye]

Does anyone know why seemingly no one is talking about Washington state anymore? Weren’t they the first location in the country to report cases thus would be something we would keep an eye on for an idea of how bad things could get or when to expect a leveling out? I don’t know **** about any of this but just thought it was interesting that all I read about is NY and CA nowadays.

[wsushox1]

Does anyone know why seemingly no one is talking about Washington state anymore? Weren’t they the first location in the country to report cases thus would be something we would keep an eye on for an idea of how bad things could get or when to expect a leveling out? I don’t know **** about any of this but just thought it was interesting that all I read about is NY and CA nowadays.

Still increasing - but at an 11% per day clip the last three days.

[pie n eye]

Still increasing - but at an 11% per day clip the last three days.

Thanks. I would have expected a worse case scenario to be playing out there right now considering it’s been there a while and they just implemented a “shelter in place” within the last 24 hours if my research is accurate.

[Kung Wu]

There's a glimmer of hope -- possibly a day or 20 too early -- but the day-to-day exponent fell below 1.02 for the first time in my data, and there has been a 7 day down trend in new cases.

decay.PNG

Note: Even 1.018 is still indicates some substantial growth, however it appears to be trending in the right direction. Let's hope and pray for New York!

Can anybody confirm they are seeing something similar?

[MelvinLoudermilk]

World Health Organization's Director, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, is a China bootlicker and a fraud. just my opinion

[jdmee]

There's a glimmer of hope -- possibly a day or 20 too early -- but the day-to-day exponent fell below 1.02 for the first time in my data, and there has been a 7 day down trend in new cases.

decay.PNG

Note: Even 1.018 is still indicates some substantial growth, however it appears to be trending in the right direction. Let's hope and pray for New York!

Can anybody confirm they are seeing something similar?

That is why it is important for those who left NY to self isolate for the 14 days. We don't want that trend to reverse itself.

This could also be some of the data that the presidents task force is looking at to determine the ability to go back to semi normalcy.

[wsushox1]

World Health Organization's Director, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, is a China bootlicker and a fraud. just my opinion

China is the 2nd biggest contributor to the WHO. Money talks.

[wufan]

Early on, I stated that I felt the death rate was a 'lagging' indicator. Therefore, taking current numbers and making projections is not going to provide an accurate result..

Here's what is going to happen.......as this crisis drags on, medical facilities will be overwhelmed and people will die. This will happen in NY, Louisiana (and perhaps Texas and Florida, for example). Reason for that is people ignoring warnings from public health officials. The Louisiana hotspot is **probably** due to Mardi Gras.

As medical facilities in hotspot areas become overwhelmed, people will die waiting for treatment, and as a result, the observed death rate will go up significantly. For instance, Gov. Cuomo (who is being advised where the spread is situated and had projections of number of really ill people coming at them) is probably asking for a few more ventilators than he needs (but he's asking for 30K), which would probably cover a worst-case scenario.

He actually got 400.

I would say if he doesn't get a whole bunch of ventilators immediately, he's probably looking at 20,000 deaths. In the meantime, the Federal government can't tell us exactly how many ventilators are on hand and where they might be.

Louisiana is in the same horrible position, looking like their medical facilities will be overwhelmed in a few days.

So here's my observation on rural states:
1) Cities (and towns) without a teaching hospital will be in terrible shape. This is because the medical care is worse in rural areas than cities AND the hospital capacity is smaller. The Lombardy area in Italy is not highly populated (Milan there are 4.3 million people in the metro area, which constitutes most of the population of Lombardy) when you get outside Milan, it looks more like Indiana or downstate Illinois and less like an urban area.
2) Rural states will not escape this virus, it's already out there and spreading. Once community transmission starts, there will be a whole bunch of people get sick.

And in the meantime, our elected leaders are trying to pump sunshine up our ___. From my vantage point, it looks like by the time we get to Easter this will be much worse than it is now.

That is quite the pessimistic take. The measures we are taking should make your scenario non-existent. I don’t know that any of the data out there supports this except in a do nothing scenario.

[jdmee]

More good news

"Mr. Cuomo highlighted data that showed slowing hospitalization rates. On Sunday, the state’s projections showed hospitalizations doubling every two days, while Tuesday’s estimates showed them doubling every 4.7 days."


"There was encouraging news from Westchester County, where the rate of infection has slowed. “We have dramatically slowed what was an exponential rate of increase,” Mr. Cuomo said. “That was the hottest cluster in the United States of America. We closed the schools, we closed gatherings, we brought in testing, and we have dramatically slowed the increase.”

[SB Shock]

Does anyone know why seemingly no one is talking about Washington state anymore? Weren’t they the first location in the country to report cases thus would be something we would keep an eye on for an idea of how bad things could get or when to expect a leveling out? I don’t know **** about any of this but just thought it was interesting that all I read about is NY and CA nowadays.

I think part of why things played out differently in Washington than other parts of the country is once they got hit, they jumped on testing and finding people who were sick and getting them isolated so they could contain the spread. That is why their number skyrocketed early but have not grown at a greater rate than other parts of the country.

If you look at Germany. They are 5th in the number of cases but their death rate has been much smaller. For example, they have 60% more cases than France, but their deaths (186) are -83% less. The German tactic was to test early and often. They are 2nd in the world in testing (behind ROK, which had the same tactic). They didn't have the tight requirement that there is in the U.S. to get a test. They wanted to identify the ones with mild symptoms (because they are the worst for spreading the virus) and get them quarantined. There is a hypothesis because they have tested so many they have been able to get people isolated sooner before it got into the at-risk demographics.

Testing, testing testing.