Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[WichitaStateGuy]

So if that's the case, which is plausible, that means the mortality rate is actually substantially lower?

Agreed. But when talking about millions of people going undiagnosed, reducing the mortality rate by mere bps still means thousands upon thousands- if not million(s)- dying. Again, there are limited test out there. I think you’re operating on the presumption we are giving tests to all people dying of respiratory complications, and that’s just not the case. Put yourself in a doctor’s shoes—you have limited tests available... are you giving it to a living person or a dead one?

[Kung Wu]

Kansas 03-18-2020.PNG

[WichitaStateGuy]

Kansas 03-18-2020.PNG

I like ya, I respect ya, I appreciate all the hard work you do on this site, I just don’t buy it. I live in a state with 3x the population of Kansas, and we only have 1700 tests. I feel like it has to be widely recognized that no where near (and to what degree is the point of conflict) the number of people infected are getting tested.

[ShockerFever]

Agreed. But when talking about millions of people going undiagnosed, reducing the mortality rate by mere bps still means thousands upon thousands- if not million(s)- dying. Again, there are limited test out there. I think you’re operating on the presumption we are giving tests to all people dying of respiratory complications, and that’s just not the case. Put yourself in a doctor’s shoes—you have limited tests available... are you giving it to a living person or a dead one?

So if that’s the case, shouldn’t respiratory disease related deaths be significantly higher so far this year? Is there a place that has that information?

[WichitaStateGuy]

So if that’s the case, shouldn’t respiratory disease related deaths be significantly higher so far this year? Is there a place that has that information?

Noooow we are asking the right questions.

[WichitaStateGuy]

So if that’s the case, shouldn’t respiratory disease related deaths be significantly higher so far this year? Is there a place that has that information?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2152V0

[SB Shock]

Confirmed US cases over the past week (my own recording of the data from Johns Hopkins, in the AM):

Mar 12 - 13: 4717 to 5065, +348
Mar 13 - 16: 5065 to 6513, +1448 (or extrapolated over three days, approximately +400, +500, +600)
Mar 16 - 17: 6513 to 7330, +817
Mar 17 - 18: 7330 to 8248, +918

That's a pretty clear trend. If it continues, we should expect to see close to 15,000 confirmed by Monday. My own personal guess is that the actual number is, at a minimum, 10x that.

I am hoping we'll see an inflection point somewhere in the next week, but I'm not optimistic.

You can get the daily tracking among other things at:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

There is no inflection point yet, only exponential expansion at this point.

The stuff the U.S. is doing is probably having a positive effect, but it my expectation there will be a lag in the data (some of that is just due widespread testing coming on line).

[SB Shock]

So if that’s the case, shouldn’t respiratory disease related deaths be significantly higher so far this year? Is there a place that has that information?

There is government information on flu tracking sites. They track positive and negative (but with flu-like symptoms) flu test results. Unfortunately I can't provide the link, but have seen some of the charts being posted online. So it is out there, but would take some digging around (it maybe on the CDC website). I don't recall the results showing anything definitive.

[wufan]

Currently about 1-2% of the NBA has cornavirus, yet we're supposed to believe that LESS than 0.001% of the world has the virus? Just use numbers, man. It doesn't make sense. Also odd that NBA players that are not showing symptoms are getting tests, while normal folk showing symptoms have a better chance of becoming WSU's starting PG next year than getting a test.

I'll say it for everyone in the back--I think millions of people have this virus currently.

EDIT: I also didn't self-diagnose. I called the doctor who said I more than likely have the virus, however, since I haven't come into contact with anyone that has the virus directly, I don't qualify for a test.

If your doctor diagnosed you over the phone, get a new doctor.

[Kung Wu]

I like ya, I respect ya, I appreciate all the hard work you do on this site, I just don’t buy it. I live in a state with 3x the population of Kansas, and we only have 1700 tests. I feel like it has to be widely recognized that no where near (and to what degree is the point of conflict) the number of people infected are getting tested.

I didn't post that for you.

[CBB_Fan]

If your doctor diagnosed you over the phone, get a new doctor.

From what I've seen, this is common or even recommended for mild cases. If you have it and don't have emergency level symptoms they don't want to run the risk of infecting other people at the hospital. If you don't have it, they want to keep it that way by keeping you out of the hospital.

[WichitaStateGuy]

If your doctor diagnosed you over the phone, get a new doctor.

You are very obviously not in the healthcare industry, and that's okay. You sound a lot like my dad who- in a lot of respects- is a very bright man. Unfortunately- like you- he is behind the times on many issues. Over the phone diagnostics have been around for a long time. It brings total industry costs down, and makes waiting rooms safer. It's also usually a better experience for patients (quicker, cheaper, less moving parts, etc).

Also, put yourself in, well, anyone's shoes--would you really want to go to the hospital right now? MANY doctor offices aren't accepting patients right now all together. Others have switched to 100% phone-based.

I honestly don't understand what the hesitation is take this seriously. Perhaps people think it's cool to be the, "It's not a big deal," guy, but what's the harm in taking this very seriously? Sure, the economy is hurting, but once a cure / vaccine is in place, there will be a massive market rally (we were due for a correction, however, imo). I think a very healthy amount of skepticism is warranted, especially since this started in China. Most of what I'm saying and Cold is saying is based in reason and logic. You all are operating under the presumption that the reported numbers are 100% accurate and that there is no ambiguity, which- like I tell my father- is fine, I guess... I'm just not that easily persuaded, I suppose.

EDIT- This is written quite poorly, and I'm sorry for that. Grammar from a mobile phone is hard.

[wufan]

You are very obviously not in the healthcare industry, and that's okay. You sound a lot like my dad who- in a lot of respects- is a very bright man. Unfortunately- like you- he is behind the times on many issues. Over the phone diagnostics have been around for a long time. It brings total industry costs down, and makes waiting rooms safer. It's also usually a better experience for patients (quicker, cheaper, less moving parts, etc).

Also, put yourself in, well, anyone's shoes--would you really want to go to the hospital right now? MANY doctor offices aren't accepting patients right now all together. Others have switched to 100% phone-based.

I honestly don't understand what the hesitation is take this seriously. Perhaps people think it's cool to be the, "It's not a big deal," guy, but what's the harm in taking this very seriously? Sure, the economy is hurting, but once a cure / vaccine is in place, there will be a massive market rally (we were due for a correction, however, imo). I think a very healthy amount of skepticism is warranted, especially since this started in China. Most of what I'm saying and Cold is saying is based in reason and logic. You all are operating under the presumption that the reported numbers are 100% accurate and that there is no ambiguity, which- like I tell my father- is fine, I guess... I'm just not that easily persuaded, I suppose.

EDIT- This is written quite poorly, and I'm sorry for that. Grammar from a mobile phone is hard.

LOL!

[WichitaStateGuy]

LOL!

An astute retort.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

You are very obviously not in the healthcare industry, and that's okay. You sound a lot like my dad who- in a lot of respects- is a very bright man. Unfortunately- like you- he is behind the times on many issues. Over the phone diagnostics have been around for a long time. It brings total industry costs down, and makes waiting rooms safer. It's also usually a better experience for patients (quicker, cheaper, less moving parts, etc).

Also, put yourself in, well, anyone's shoes--would you really want to go to the hospital right now? MANY doctor offices aren't accepting patients right now all together. Others have switched to 100% phone-based.

I honestly don't understand what the hesitation is take this seriously. Perhaps people think it's cool to be the, "It's not a big deal," guy, but what's the harm in taking this very seriously? Sure, the economy is hurting, but once a cure / vaccine is in place, there will be a massive market rally (we were due for a correction, however, imo). I think a very healthy amount of skepticism is warranted, especially since this started in China. Most of what I'm saying and Cold is saying is based in reason and logic. You all are operating under the presumption that the reported numbers are 100% accurate and that there is no ambiguity, which- like I tell my father- is fine, I guess... I'm just not that easily persuaded, I suppose.

EDIT- This is written quite poorly, and I'm sorry for that. Grammar from a mobile phone is hard.

While I hope you are correct I have a couple of points (I work in financial services, it seems like you are in the medical field, so I think I have subject matter knowledge here, I have had continuous access to some of this information for quite some time):
1) Economists at ALL the big banks were pointing to this correction for the last two years, most of them were saying it would be in the last half of 2019. Some were calling late 2018 (actually it was a one year range - anytime from late 2018 to late 2019). They were wrong, but not by much. I redid all of my investments in 2018. I am not an economist, but believe me, the big 4 banks have a lot of money to spend on economists who make these kinds of projections.
2) As a result of the President's jawboning at the Federal Reserve Chief, interest rates are artificially low. ANY policy tools the Fed could use to avert this crisis were taken away from them by the policy actions taken by the FED chair because of Trump's jawboning AND those unnecessary tax cuts he pushed through.

My opinion
I don't think this will be a quick V shaped recession. We just ended the longest bull market in history, there were many metrics pointing to an adjustment. With the Corona virus thing, now we will have an additional hit on the economy.

We are PROBABLY going to have to print our way out of this. I hope after the elections in November are over AND the economy stabilizes, we can undo some or most of the cuts, they did not stimulate the economy and they took a tool away from the Fed Chair for this exact situation. We are going to be left with a huge deficit and it will need to be filled somehow.