Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[ShockerFever]

Didn't a lot of states open up like 6 or 7 weeks ago? Wasn't there supposed to be a devastating outcome after the Memorial Day blitz? Wasn't Memorial Day like a month ago? Why are the "spikes" lagging so far behind? Is the incubation period like 6 or 7 weeks now?

Of course not. More people are getting tested which means more cases are being logged. Anyone can get a test now anywhere. That wasn't the case a month ago. New daily deaths continue to get lower and lower but of course that never gets mentioned.

These spikes aren't even really that "spiky". There's slight increases in the numbers but again, more tests are being administered. You'd think by the way the media talks that we're logging 100,000 new cases a day in the U.S.

I have a feeling we'll magically find a "cure" sometime around November 3rd.

We have a long ways to go to reach the death angel's grand prediction of 5 million deaths.

[SB Shock]

Herd immunity always works. It’s just dangerous for those out in front. I can’t remember the percentage required, but I think the spread slows when around 15% of a population is infected.

70% is the estimate required. For reference measles it is 94%.

[SB Shock]

It's declining but you likely won't hear anything about that on the "news". Cases are going up slightly, but death rates are going down. Meaning, better treatments as we know what to expect and how to handle it.

I would suggest another factor might be those who know who are at most risk have modified their behavior so they are less exposed. Also significant precautions have been taken to protect nursing and retirement homes (which is where large majority of deaths are occurring).

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

I would suggest another factor might be those who know who are at most risk have modified their behavior so they are less exposed. Also significant precautions have been taken to protect nursing and retirement homes (which is where large majority of deaths are occurring).

100% agree. Also what that means is this is justification for no longer locking everyone down and destroying the economy. The whole point of the quarantine was supposed to be to slow it down and flatten the curve until we could get a handle on testing, treatments, and not overwhelm the hospitals. We have done that now with widespread testing available and now the majority of the cases are manageable without causing death. The people most at risk now know what they need to do and those of us at lower risk know how to also take precautions so as not to expose those at risk unduly. But of course, this does not sell advertising and nor does it fit the agenda of the left leaning media.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Didn't a lot of states open up like 6 or 7 weeks ago? Wasn't there supposed to be a devastating outcome after the Memorial Day blitz? Wasn't Memorial Day like a month ago? Why are the "spikes" lagging so far behind? Is the incubation period like 6 or 7 weeks now?

Of course not. More people are getting tested which means more cases are being logged. Anyone can get a test now anywhere. That wasn't the case a month ago. New daily deaths continue to get lower and lower but of course that never gets mentioned.

These spikes aren't even really that "spiky". There's slight increases in the numbers but again, more tests are being administered. You'd think by the way the media talks that we're logging 100,000 new cases a day in the U.S.

I have a feeling we'll magically find a "cure" sometime around November 3rd.

We have a long ways to go to reach the death angel's grand prediction of 5 million deaths.

[C0|dB|00ded]

Young folks aren’t ending up in the hospital. CV is less lethal than flu in people under 50. Get that herd immunity!!!

Be careful what you wish for... herd immunity without a vaccine will cost at least a million lives in America unless the virus mutates. Don't be delusional . We're lucky if we have 15% of the nation infected so far. Every random serology study I've read has a tiny percentage of the sample group infected.

These asymptomatic carriers DO NOT carry the potent antibodies that those who struggled with Covid-19 now enjoy. Even with the strong antibodies, there's no guarantee they will have endurance.

Coronavirus antibodies are notoriously temporary. Any vaccine could end up being a multi-year injection.

This disease is really, really, insidious.


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[C0|dB|00ded]

Didn't a lot of states open up like 6 or 7 weeks ago? Wasn't there supposed to be a devastating outcome after the Memorial Day blitz? Wasn't Memorial Day like a month ago? Why are the "spikes" lagging so far behind? Is the incubation period like 6 or 7 weeks now?

Of course not. More people are getting tested which means more cases are being logged. Anyone can get a test now anywhere. That wasn't the case a month ago. New daily deaths continue to get lower and lower but of course that never gets mentioned.

These spikes aren't even really that "spiky". There's slight increases in the numbers but again, more tests are being administered. You'd think by the way the media talks that we're logging 100,000 new cases a day in the U.S.

I have a feeling we'll magically find a "cure" sometime around November 3rd.

We have a long ways to go to reach the death angel's grand prediction of 5 million deaths.

You're completely clueless lol.


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[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Be careful what you wish for... herd immunity without a vaccine will cost at least a million lives in America unless the virus mutates. Don't be delusional . We're lucky if we have 15% of the nation infected so far. Every random serology study I've read has a tiny percentage of the sample group infected.

These asymptomatic carriers DO NOT carry the potent antibodies that those who struggled with Covid-19 now enjoy. Even with the strong antibodies, there's no guarantee they will have endurance.

Coronavirus antibodies are notoriously temporary. Any vaccine could end up being a multi-year injection.

This disease is really, really, insidious.


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Hmmm, a million deaths, where have I heard that one before??

[WuDrWu]

All these young people that are testing positive.....are any of them showing symptoms at all? Has even one been hospitalized?

[C0|dB|00ded]

Imagine scaling a coronavirus particle to the size of a copper BB, then scaling your CLOTH mask by the same factor.

How big would a 7.5"h x 4.5"w mask be relative to the copper BB?

4.4 miles x 2.7 miles

But what about the size of the pores in the cloth mask? Depending on the fabric chosen, each pore will be between:

9.8 feet in diameter to 56.7 feet in diameter

And how many pores would be in the massive wall at those sizes?

Somewhere between 58,000 and 228,000 holes

With a CLOTH mask you are trying to stop a BB from being vacuumed through 58,000 to 228,000 holes, which are each the diameter of a 1 to 5 story building, in a wall that stretches from Hillside to Webb road, and is high enough that you are required to have supplemental oxygen in an aircraft.

--

Hopefully that gives you a visual sense of just how small a coronavirus particle is relative to a cloth mask.

If you are at risk, please strongly consider using surgical masks (or N95 if you can get your hand on one) instead of cloth masks.

Most of the calculations above were done using data from this peer reviewed journal article: https://peerj.com/articles/7142/#supp-3

This is a novel illustration, but unfortunately misses the forest for the trees.

First off, I do agree that N95 masks are the best choice if available, but I do not agree that cloth masks are the equivalent of being maskless. That statement is absurd.

The vast majority of respiratory infections come from droplets that are transmitted within a fairly small radius. Where you are getting confused, is equating the size of the actual virus to the size of it's carrier, which in most cases, is droplets larger than 5nm. There's also the concentration issue that you continue to overlook. Just like it only takes one sperm to fertilize an egg, it only takes one Coronavirus to infect a human cell. But a sperm count of less than 13.5 million per mL, indicates infertility. That's still a lot of sperm getting released, but not enough to be statistically probable in causing a fertilization. This is the same with a viral infection; there is a concentration threshold that must be reached to have a statistical effect on infection rates. Non-aerosol droplets are dense with virus and getting them around your mouth, nose, or eyes is a high risk affair.

I firmly believe that Covid-19 does infect people in airborne fashion, particularly when you are in tight rooms with an infected for a significant amount of time, but it's still not the most effective way to infect. Large respiratory droplets are the biggest danger and a crappy cloth mask will afford ample protection against transmission.

But don't take my word for it, I'll let others with much more authority on the issue to speak for me.

https://www.newsweek.com/deborah-bir...avirus-1500837

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Advice on Using Face Coverings to Slow Spread of COVID-19

• CDC recommends wearing a cloth face covering in public where
• social distancing measures are difficult to maintain.
• A simple cloth face covering can help slow the spread of the virus by those infected and by those who do not exhibit symptoms.
• Cloth face coverings can be fashioned from household items. Guides are offered by the CDC. (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...coverings.html)
• Cloth face coverings should be washed regularly. A washing machine will suffice.
• Practice safe removal of face coverings by not touching eyes, nose, and mouth, and wash hands immediately after removing the covering.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...coverings.html

Lots of information on cloth face coverings.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/anthon...se-coronavirus

White House coronavirus Task Force member Dr. Anthony Fauci said Friday that the general public should be wearing cloth masks if they cannot keep a safe distance from others.

"The better part of valor when you’re out and you can’t maintain that six-foot distance is to wear some type of facial covering. An important point to emphasize though is that should never take away the availability of the masks that are needed for the health care providers who are in real present danger. So this is an addition to the physical separation, not as a substitute for it," he said on Fox & Friends, explaining why the CDC has reversed course on the recommendation for people to cover their faces in public.

I really don't intend to debate in this thread. I only aim to provide facts and the latest best practices for those that would put politics, or their own fears, ahead of common sense.

P.S. I should add that cloth coverings (the worst mask you can use) provides more infection barrier when worn on the infector rather than the infectee.


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[ShockerFever]

You're completely clueless lol.


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When you, of all people, respond to a post in 5 words or less, I feel justified in my points.

[C0|dB|00ded]

Herd immunity always works. It’s just dangerous for those out in front. I can’t remember the percentage required, but I think the spread slows when around 15% of a population is infected.

Talk about the understatement of the year. Are you willing to donate your friends and family to the cause sir?

Herd immunity without a vaccine requires two things: 1) a predictable/robust immunoresponse and, 2) massive infection

So if we have 15% of the country infected so far AND they are all carrying reliable antibodies (big if), then we are about 20% of the way towards herd immunity. IF the next 80% of the necessary infections stay under the threshold of what our hospitals can handle (big if), and with around 120k dead so far, we are looking at another 400k dead, minimum.

The reality is, we are going to need a whole helluva lot of luck to have robust anitbodies (when Coronavirus are notorious for producing limited antibodies), and a slow and manageable infection rate so hospitals don't get overwhelmed.

The logical solution is to socially distance as much as possible, wear masks in community areas, and wait for the vaccine.... Pray for the vaccine.


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[C0|dB|00ded]

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-...s/art-20486808

Herd immunity can also be reached when a sufficient number of people in the population have recovered from a disease and have developed antibodies against future infection. For example, those who survived the 1918 flu (influenza) pandemic were later immune to infection with the H1N1 flu, a subtype of influenza A. During the 2009-10 flu season, H1N1 caused the respiratory infection in humans that was commonly referred to as swine flu.

However, there are some major problems with relying on community infection to create herd immunity to the virus that causes COVID-19. First, it isn't yet clear if infection with the COVID-19 virus makes a person immune to future infection.

Research suggests that after infection with some coronaviruses, reinfection with the same virus — though usually mild and only happening in a fraction of people — is possible after a period of months or years. Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies to the virus in those who have been infected.

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.

A little on herd immunity.

And there's those cloth face coverings again... from Mayo no less.


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[Dave Stalwart]

I bet it is blowing some SN people's minds to have CB on their side of this issue. Probably making some of them very uneasy.

[ShockerFever]

If only 15% of this country has been infected, then this thing is far less contagious than we suspect.