Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[ShockerFever]

Positive case confirmed at Wesley Medical Center. Patient had just gotten back from a cruise.

https://www.kwch.com/content/news/We...568770071.html

What's the theme with all the first confirmed cases in various areas?

Traveling.

[Kung Wu]

Ok I will bite. Please define the criteria to determine how to measure the two sides. We know one side states that 80% infection rate with at least 3% death rate. So 10 to 11 NBA players lives have been saved.

I will compare that to my kids school. 0 cases have been reported in our county. They are still having school and monitoring the situation. So they have around 3000 kid in the high school. 72 of them are doomed.

Or maybe there is a middle ground.

I think at this point it is straight forward for the math nerds at the CDC to project what will happen if we do nothing -- the raw data is plentiful. I believe you can use influenza's R0 as a model because it spreads similarly, if not slightly worse (assuming how the research into the airborne aspect of coronavirus pans out). The nerds at the CDC can do _better_ than using influenza's R0, but I consider influenza as a _conservative_ way to estimate the scale of the problem.

Obviously we will know the outcome based on doing something, because those are the actual numbers.

Subtract those two and you have the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of society making behavioral changes.

And then there should (and will) be a very worthwhile and robust debate about whether it's worth it in the future. This is where it will (and should) get heated. If you know, statistically and within reasonable level error, that you can save 200,000 lives by canceling school and sports programs, having travel bans, etc -- is it worth it? What about 50,000 lives? I won't even pretend to have an answer, and I am not going to share my conservative/libertarian biased-viewpoint at this point.

But any debate about whether what we are doing is making a difference is silly. It IS making a difference, and that's mathematically indisputable. The real debate is "Is it worth it?", and to what extent. We need to have that debate so we can set expectations going forward.

[ShockBand]

What's the theme with all the first confirmed cases in various areas?

Traveling.

Yup. We are staying home this week during spring break, which was not the original plan. I also had a training I was scheduled to attend in late March get switched to a virtual one. I feel like I should be training up for sitting on my front porch and yelling "get off my proppity!"

[Shockm]

Three of the four in Johnson County had all been to a conference in Florida. So if everyone will just stay in Kansas, we won't have a problem. Right?

[Kung Wu]

Here's the deal, though. Because you took action when the incident was small, you will never know whether it would have stayed small and burned out on its own or if it would have engulfed your house in fire.[/I]

Nice analogy.

However, if you can calculate that there is a potential 98% within a certain degree of error, then you DO KNOW what would have happened.

[SHOXAAC]

Nice analogy.

However, if you can calculate that there is a potential 98% within a certain degree of error, then you DO KNOW what would have happened.

That still doesn't explain who's on first.

[jdmee]

I think at this point it is straight forward for the math nerds at the CDC to project what will happen if we do nothing -- the raw data is plentiful. I believe you can use influenza's R0 as a model because it spreads similarly, if not slightly worse (assuming how the research into the airborne aspect of coronavirus pans out). The nerds at the CDC can do _better_ than using influenza's R0, but I consider influenza as a _conservative_ way to estimate the scale of the problem.

Obviously we will know the outcome based on doing something, because those are the actual numbers.

Subtract those two and you have the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of society making behavioral changes.

And then there should (and will) be a very worthwhile and robust debate about whether it's worth it in the future. This is where it will (and should) get heated. If you know, statistically and within reasonable level error, that you can save 200,000 lives by canceling school and sports programs, having travel bans, etc -- is it worth it? What about 50,000 lives? I won't even pretend to have an answer, and I am not going to share my conservative/libertarian biased-viewpoint at this point.

But any debate about whether what we are doing is making a difference is silly. It IS making a difference, and that's mathematically indisputable. The real debate is "Is it worth it?", and to what extent. We need to have that debate so we can set expectations going forward.

But there is a middle ground between shutting everything down and doing nothing. I think what my kids school is doing is the right thing. It seems you do not.

What are the disadvantaged students who do not have the access that other students do to participate in the online class going to do? Are they now going to drop out? Flunk out? These were some of the questions our school board had to think about when deciding to cancel classes or not.

Now the school did cancel certain higher risk activities. Which is also the right thing to do.


Maybe the issue I have is the my way is right your way wants to kill millions tone I read into your original post.

[DUShock]

Trading the market open these past two weeks has been very profitable in the unspooling. Key is not to hold overnight, use take profit orders, and to use your stops with the increased volatility. ES, GC, and CL have been money makers for intraday trades.

[Kung Wu]

But there is a middle ground between shutting everything down and doing nothing. I think what my kids school is doing is the right thing. It seems you do not.

The only opinion I tried to express at this point is that the math is the math and it's correct. There is a ton of debate we need to have about what to DO with the results. Within that debate lies your middle ground. I have opinions about it but I just dont want to share them right now.

[ShockBand]

Trading the market open these past two weeks has been very profitable in the unspooling. Key is not to hold overnight, use take profit orders, and to use your stops with the increased volatility. ES, GC, and CL have been money makers for intraday trades.

How does my baseball card collection and personal stash of whiskey figure into all that?

[wufan]

How does my baseball card collection and personal stash of whiskey figure into all that?

Hold both right now. Whiskey is a good investment in any market. Baseball cards can be sold as toilet paper in a couple of weeks.

[wufan]

On the, “what to do about it” debate, this is a risk tolerance question. You won’t find a ton of agreement. My opinion is that the do nothing action should help the economy stay afloat and make social security solvent again.

Sorry to those that take offense at the dark joke.

[DUShock]

How does my baseball card collection and personal stash of whiskey figure into all that?

Values are much improved! Cheers!

[SHOXAAC]

How does my baseball card collection and personal stash of whiskey figure into all that?

If it's Pappy's sell low. I will be your buyer.

[WstateU]

If it's Pappy's sell low. I will be your buyer.

If it's a 1909 Honus Wagner, please send me a pm... that would complete my collection.