Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[Shockm]

More people have had the Caronavirus than previously thought. A Stanford professor conducting studies that may show it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/healt...udy/index.html

[Kung Wu]

Israeli Professor Plots Rates of New Infections in a Dozen Countries and Makes a Stunning Discovery

Ben-Israel plotted the rates of new infections in nearly a dozen countries including: U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, Spain, Singapore, and Taiwan. He concluded the following:

Simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.

Well, I just wrote a program this morning to test this against each state in the US. I used a start date of when the state first crosses 10 reported cases. Then I added 40 to that date and called it (Predicted Peak), then calculated the actual peak.

Check this out for the heavy hitter states I could think of:

State	Start Day	Predicted Peak	Actual Peak	Peak Cases
WA	20200229	20200409	20200403	586
NY	20200305	20200414	20200415	11571
MI	20200302	20200411	20200414	1366
CA	20200304	20200413	20200412	2322

I mean in the first four states that came to mind, his algorithm is within a day in two of them, 3 days in one of them and only 6 days in the first one.

THAT'S MIND BOGGLING.

[Kung Wu]

I should mention that I didn't comb the data for issues like states that have a "hole" in their data (which would cause the peak to be wonky). I am sure without even looking the heavy hitter states above do not fall into that category with missing data, as they were heavily scrutinized.

[Kung Wu]

This thing is fizzling and it's going to fizzle out entirely in about 30-45 days. Deaths and new cases will start declining now.

There are only 12 states left that haven't peaked (according to Ben-Israel's algorithm, which is stunningly working quite well in my simulation). And of those 12 I would say 6 of them have likely peaked (their peak was on 04/17), it's just a day or two early to tell for sure.

And testing is only relevant at this point for diagnosing sick people. It's really unnecessary to prevent spread.

Book it.

[wufan]

No issue following the statistics, but why on earth is it following such a predictable pattern?

[Kung Wu]

No issue following the statistics, but why on earth is it following such a predictable pattern?

Here's a theory I am just throwing out there:

1) The R0 is a lot lower than we thought -- much more close to the flu ... maybe 1.18.

2) The lower R0 coupled with much longer "shelf life" than we realize.

#1 means much lower population necessary to hit herd immunity, and #2 means whether you isolate or don't -- it doesn't matter. It's on your food and you're gonna eat eventually.

If those facts above were true, it would explain it, but those are completely made up by me. :)

[Kung Wu]

Any article out there pushing hysteria is simply unfounded garbage at this point.

[ShockBand]

I hope they use the testing of the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt as a case study of how the transmission goes in pretty tight quarters. Granted a Navy crew is younger and healthier than the populace at large, but would it be about as controlled of a study setting as one could get? I ask not really being well versed in all the data and stats stuff.

https://news.usni.org/2020/04/17/navy-cdc-to-study-covid-19-outbreak-on-carrier-theodore-roosevelt

[Aargh]

What we hear out of Washington is that testing is available. What we hear out of the states and medical facilities is that there is a shortage of reagents and swabs.

The President can order businesses to produce the supplies that are needed. The governors cannot. Q-tips are made in the USA. Swabs for virus testing are about the same item with a longer flexible handle. I'm not familiar with the reagents needed for the tests, but there's a pretty solid presence of chemical component manufacturing expertise available in the US.

The inability to test randomly and do contact testing can't be blamed on China or the WHO.

[pie n eye]

And testing is only relevant at this point for diagnosing sick people. It's really unnecessary to prevent spread.

Maybe so but people are going to be hesitant to go back to normal even after restrictions are completely lifted. Tests can provide peace of mind.

[wufan]

What we hear out of Washington is that testing is available. What we hear out of the states and medical facilities is that there is a shortage of reagents and swabs.

The President can order businesses to produce the supplies that are needed. The governors cannot. Q-tips are made in the USA. Swabs for virus testing are about the same item with a longer flexible handle. I'm not familiar with the reagents needed for the tests, but there's a pretty solid presence of chemical component manufacturing expertise available in the US.

The inability to test randomly and do contact testing can't be blamed on China or the WHO.

We are producing hundreds of thousands of test kits per day, but not millions per day. Thats net 0 to net 250K/day with no pre-established supply chain in 2 months. Was net 1 million/day the goal, and why are we short of that?

[pie n eye]

Unrelated but I saw article where someone involved with the professional tennis circuit said that it will be impossible to start tennis up until there is a vaccine.

I’m confident, maybe overly so, that we can ramp up test production because it’s seemingly just a matter of logistics.

I’m afraid that a vaccine is years away and might not be realistic at all considering there are pandemic diseases from the early 2000s for which we still haven’t found a vaccine. Maybe those are just special cases and Covid will be different but the possibility we never develop an effective vaccine has to be considered.

Basically, I think the people saying “can’t do X until we have a vaccine” need to realize that may never happen. And, personally, given what I understand at this moment about the virus, I don’t think we need a vaccine to start ramping back up as long as we are smart about it.

If this thing is as contagious as some think and simultaneously not as deadly as previously thought we might hit herd immunity levels, if such a thing is possible as there are debates on post infection immunity, before a vaccine can be determined safe and effective.

[SHOCKvalue]

Sedgwick County - 516,000 residents

COVID-19 Hospitalizations - 41
COVID-19 Deaths - 4

Basically lottery-level likelihoods of either happening to you.

[ShockerFever]

Sedgwick County - 516,000 residents

COVID-19 Hospitalizations - 41
COVID-19 Deaths - 4

Basically lottery-level likelihoods of either happening to you.

The critics to your argument will say that they're so low because of social distancing.

[wsushox1]

The critics to your argument will say that they're so low because of social distancing.

But what if that's the right answer? I think we can begin to loosen things up in the 1st of May provided people still take precautions in most parts of the country. Are you saying that social distancing doesn't work?

Meanwhile, cases beginning to take off in Ford County.