Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[wufan]

Has anyone seen the models for the lag time for deaths to infection rate? Feel like we will see deaths continue to increase long after the plateau and even into the downward trend.

I believe we will see a week of mortality increases after a week of plateau.

I am becoming more optimistic about this illness due to the low testing rate. I think there is a high rate of asymptomatic/mild unreported cases that greatly decreases the mortality rate.

[ShockBand]

Seems clinical trials are about to start for EIDD-2801, which has promise.

https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/fda-clears-the-way-for-ridgeback-biotherapeutics-to-begin-human-testing-of-a-promising-potential-treatment-for-covid-19/

[1979Shocker]

Coronavirus Becomes Leading Cause of Death in U.S.

[Shockm]

Newest model from Washington U. on coronavirus is now 60,000 by August down from as high as a 240,000 death rate possibility. A 180,000 difference is a huge difference. It may not be a good comparison but it appears to be similar to the NCAA Tourney Too Early forecasts. They change so often until they are totally right at the end (Selection Sunday).

I might add that just last week, the projection was in the 90,000 range and later in the week 80,000.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...n-us-by-august

[ShockerFever]

Cold said 5 million.

[WstateU]

Cold said 5 million.

[MoValley John]

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

1,253 new cases with 50 deaths yesterday in Louisiana.

[RoyalShock]

Coronavirus Becomes Leading Cause of Death in U.S.

I really hate when the media use statistical terms they don't understand or are intentionally misapplying. Saying "1,970 deaths in the U.S. per day" or "averaging around 748 deaths per day" (with no time frame) is simply incorrect. They can get their point across without being so alarmist.

[ShockerFever]

I really hate when the media use statistical terms they don't understand or are intentionally misapplying. Saying "1,970 deaths in the U.S. per day" or "averaging around 748 deaths per day" (with no time frame) is simply incorrect. They can get their point across without being so alarmist.

It’s stuff like that, that gives the media a bad name.

[WuDrWu]

Coronavirus Becomes Leading Cause of Death in U.S.

This is wrong. Not kind of wrong.

[RoyalShock]

Here is an indication of the quality of writing and editing at Newsweek, from the bottom of that article:

Globally, over 1.4 million people globally have been infected with COVID-19, and over 89,000 have died.

That's internet message board quality right there, especially when it's an article comparing apples to aardvarks.

[wsushox1]

For those saying Sweden would be an interesting country to watch........their case fatality rate is over 8% and over 1/3rd of all senior homes have confirmed cases. Death rate per million people triple that of Norway. Government now beginning to shut things down.

[Shockm]

Newest model from Washington U. on coronavirus is now 60,000 by August down from as high as a 240,000 death rate possibility. A 180,000 difference is a huge difference. It may not be a good comparison but it appears to be similar to the NCAA Tourney Too Early forecasts. They change so often until they are totally right at the end (Selection Sunday).

I might add that just last week, the projection was in the 90,000 range and later in the week 80,000.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...n-us-by-august

Here is the article I saw dated March 31 where extremely high numbers of deaths were predicted even with successful mitigation procedures being followed.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/coro...ry?id=69894694

Here is the portion of the article which shows how off their models/predictions were.....

Introducing studies from the University and Washington and London Imperial College, Birx said, their models showed "what social distancing would do, what would happen if people stayed home, what would happen if people were careful every day to wash their hands and worry about touching their faces -- what an extraordinary thing this could be if every American followed these."

Birx emphasized that without mitigation efforts, between 1.5 million and 2.2 million people in the U.S. would die. Even with social distancing, models show "100 to 200,000 deaths, which is still way too much," Birx acknowledged.

[ShockingButTrue]

I believe we will see a week of mortality increases after a week of plateau.

I am becoming more optimistic about this illness due to the low testing rate. I think there is a high rate of asymptomatic/mild unreported cases that greatly decreases the mortality rate.

Very rational sentiment... Maybe several on this board have had it, just like the flu?



Happy Easter everyone! Ignore the panic and have a good weekend!