Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[Kung Wu]

You don't get any internet in most jails in Kansas. And what you might have access to is highly restricted. And some of the other pleasantries are not actually that pleasant especially of you are on the receiving end.

John has always said it's better to give than to receive.

[Aargh]

The mortality rate among confirmed cases (deaths/confirmed positive tests) is now above 5%. Either this is an incredibly fatal infection or our testing is incredibly flawed by the low number of tests administered.

[ShockerFever]

The mortality rate among confirmed cases (deaths/confirmed positive tests) is now above 5%. Either this is an incredibly fatal infection or our testing is incredibly flawed by the low number of tests administered.

And the mortality rate in Iceland with extensive testing is 0.4%.

[Shockm]

And the mortality rate in Iceland with extensive testing is 0.4%.

My understanding is that only 10% of Icelanders were tested to come up with the 0.4%. I don’t totally understand statistics, but testing wouldn’t mean everyone.

[ShockerFever]

My understanding is that only 10% of Icelanders were tested to come up with the 0.4%. I don’t totally understand statistics, but testing wouldn’t mean everyone.

10% is one of the highest percentages among nations.

But yes, country boundaries are pretty much meaningless in this game. The more testing the better, no matter where it is.

The lack of data makes this all totally unpredictable. This thing could be way better than what we're seeing right now or way worse. Nobody knows at this point.

[Aargh]

We're barely above 1% in testing in the USA. We've done no random testing to determine infection rates among the population. Random testing attempts to determine actual infection rates and identify sources of infection from those without symptoms, and then isolate those positive individuals.

Preliminary results from early antibody tests in Cincinnati indicate that 4% of the population has antibodies. Cincinnati isn't a hot spot, nor is it rural, so it might be a reasonable estimate of incidence. The positive antibody tests there were 4% of all tests. That would indicate there are 13 million with antibodies in the nation. We've tested about 3 million. In the entire month of January, when countries successfully battling the virus were testing heavily, we had a little over 800 people tested in the the USA.

S. Dakota is an example of what can happen with low testing numbers. S. Dakota had low numbers of people with symptoms, so no mitigating actions were taken. Then 300 people at a pork processing plant were positive. Now 4% of the nation's ability to process pork is shut down.

[1979Shocker]

Family of New York woman blames hydroxychloroquine combo for fatal heart attack

[Aargh]

Family of New York woman blames hydroxychloroquine combo for fatal heart attack

A test of hydroxychloroquine in Brazil showed no difference in recovery between patients getting hydroxychloroquine and patients getting placebos. The test was suspended when 8 people (out of 97) getting hydroxychloroquine died from heart attacks. From studies I've looked into, chances are those Brazilian deaths were getting high doses of hydroxychloroquine.

At this point in time we don't know if the reports of hydroxychloroquine curing the disease are because hydroxychloroquine was the cure or whether time was the cure. We also don't know if hydroxychloroquine was the cause of deaths in the study or if those people were going to die of heart disease regardless of whether they were in the study.

[wsushox1]

My understanding is that only 10% of Icelanders were tested to come up with the 0.4%. I don’t totally understand statistics, but testing wouldn’t mean everyone.

They used a representative sample, which if done correctly, should have little to no difference to the CFR if they tested everyone.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

A test of hydroxychloroquine in Brazil showed no difference in recovery between patients getting hydroxychloroquine and patients getting placebos. The test was suspended when 8 people (out of 97) getting hydroxychloroquine died from heart attacks. From studies I've looked into, chances are those Brazilian deaths were getting high doses of hydroxychloroquine.

At this point in time we don't know if the reports of hydroxychloroquine curing the disease are because hydroxychloroquine was the cure or whether time was the cure. We also don't know if hydroxychloroquine was the cause of deaths in the study or if those people were going to die of heart disease regardless of whether they were in the study.

And that's why Trump needs to be more self-reflective when he makes these types of statements. Any objective person who would be viewing this (and has any idea of what it takes to get FDA approval) would be skeptical of the comments he was making.

[pogo]

I'm always skeptical of remarks made by politicians

[RoyalShock]

The first large seroprevalance report:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.

[Kung Wu]

These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.

Whoa! So we might be a lot closer to herd immunity than we thought!

[Kung Wu]

The first large seroprevalance report:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

I mean this is easily the strongest argument to go back to business as usual to date.

[RoyalShock]

The study isn't peer reviewed yet and I'm not skilled enough at dissecting these reports to know if their methodology is sound enough to draw an accurate conclusion. We can certainly hope it is!