Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[pie n eye]

Sedgwick County - 516,000 residents

COVID-19 Hospitalizations - 41
COVID-19 Deaths - 4

Basically lottery-level likelihoods of either happening to you.

Conveniently omitted relevant facts:

-Kansas closed school 3/15 with 9 confirmed cases.
-3/16 Kansas institutes ban on gatherings of 50 or more people with 11 confirmed cases.
-3/27 Kansas announced 3/30 stay at home order with just over 200 confirmed cases.

We were lucky that we’re middle of nowhere Kansas and smart, imo, that we reacted relatively quickly. Hopefully that combination plus new research that indicates a lower than initially calculated mortality rate means that we will see a smaller death toll and be able to get back up and running sooner than other states.

[SHOCKvalue]

The critics to your argument will say that they're so low because of social distancing.

Massive amounts of people are still out and about. I know because I'm one of them - not really by choice but because if I choose to seclude I will basically lose my client base and have to rebuild my business.

I guess the shutdown looks real if you are in the furloughed or laid off demo and are legitimately staying home. When you are out, it looks about 75% normal. Was at Home Depot this weekend. Busiest I have ever seen it.

Make sure your church doesn't have services though. If they do let the media know so they can be shamed.

[SHOCKvalue]

Conveniently omitted relevant facts:

-Kansas closed school 3/15 with 9 confirmed cases.
-3/16 Kansas institutes ban on gatherings of 50 or more people with 11 confirmed cases.
-3/27 Kansas announced 3/30 stay at home order with just over 200 confirmed cases.

We were lucky that we’re middle of nowhere Kansas and smart, imo, that we reacted relatively quickly. Hopefully that combination plus new research that indicates a lower than initially calculated mortality rate means that we will see a smaller death toll and be able to get back up and running sooner than other states.

Posted from your house, that you haven't left, no doubt. You are probably under the impression that it looks like some version of Walking Dead out there, yes?

The idea that the "shutdown" is a shutdown is effectively a myth. We have just picked winners and losers and certain segments of the population are economically taking it over the barrel and for others it is business as usual. I should take pictures of traffic when I'm out and about during the day for work purposes.

[1972Shocker]

No issue following the statistics, but why on earth is it following such a predictable pattern?

It would be good if that could be answered think. But so far there are no explanations for that as far as I know.

[wsushox1]

Posted from your house, that you haven't left, no doubt. You are probably under the impression that it looks like some version of Walking Dead out there, yes?

The idea that the "shutdown" is a shutdown is effectively a myth. We have just picked winners and losers and certain segments of the population are economically taking it over the barrel and for others it is business as usual. I should take pictures of traffic when I'm out and about during the day for work purposes.

But there's a difference between driving, having appointments with one or two people, or being a store 6 feet apart from someone else then being in a restaurant, a crowded bar, or a sporting event? Right? Things aren't the walking dead - but they are drastically reduced and no large gatherings (sans the protests) are making an impact.

I work in non-profit development so obviously there's no work because no one is giving when asset prices drop 35% in two weeks and no prospective donors are going to meet with you in person. When asking for a check - Zoom meetings don't usually get it done.

[pie n eye]

Posted from your house, that you haven't left, no doubt.

Well, actually I have left the house, safely, to support local businesses who are still open.

Not sure what the point of your post was.

[SHOCKvalue]

Well, actually I have left the house, safely, to support local businesses who are still open.

Not sure what the point of your post was.

Likewise.

[pie n eye]

Likewise.

What's the matter, you don't like it when someone questions your cool guy not-woke takes?

I've been surprised at the number of "people" who are out and about when I leave the house. I think to myself, "what are they doing, don't they know we're supposed to be sheltered at home?" But then, just as quickly, I think, "you idiot, they're probably saying the same thing about you."

Then it occurs to me that I don't know where these people are going. Maybe it's to do a grocery pick up, a curbside food order, or some other purchase. Driving by yourself in a car certainly doesn't put anyone at risk for transmission. Similarly the risk during grocery pick up, food pickup, etc is almost non-existant if done right.

I do, however, know where they're not going. They're not going to crowded bars, restaurants, businesses (for the most part, obviously there are exceptions), sporting events, etc. Places where diseases can potentially be transmitted en masse.

I agree that, as we get more information, it looks like many places around the country should begin to safely, smartly open back up sooner than later. The longer we "hunker down" the worse the effect on the economy which obviously also has the potential to cause countless problems and the longer it will take to recover. We didn't have that information until recently and we still don't have the full picture. What information we did have at the time looked dire so the actions made sense, in my opinion.

I predicted early on, and I think Kung Wu actually said it, that if the shelter in place idea works then we will have many people second guessing the decision.

[wsushox1]

I predicted early on, and I think Kung Wu actually said it, that if the shelter in place idea works then we will have many people second guessing the decision.

[wufan]

I do think the shelter in place worked, and I was all for it. The purpose of such a measure was to “flatten the curve” and ensure that we don’t overwhelm the healthcare system. It appears that we have been successful there as well.

So, good planning combined with ideal location and time to avoid a pandemic, leads to what I would have predicted as an overwhelming success on March 10 or so! Now what?

A few options:

1. Stay in your house forever because the government will keep us safe!
2. Hide until we have a vaccine.
3. Hide until we’ve tested to the point that we Know have herd immunity or no new cases.
4. Slowly reopen sectors of the economy with some restrictions.
5. Open up all of the economy while forcing high risk individuals into quarantine.
6. Party like it’s 1999!

I think we need to be ready for some version of 4/5 by May 1.

[Kung Wu]

Unrelated but I saw article where someone involved with the professional tennis circuit said that it will be impossible to start tennis up until there is a vaccine.

What's the basis for that opinion? On the surface is makes no sense.

[WstateU]

What's the basis for that opinion? On the surface is makes no sense.

Hairy balls?

[Kung Wu]

After running the daily Kungculator, there are now only 6 states that had a peak on the 18th or 19th. All the rest have peaks on 4/17 or earlier.

IA 4/19
MS 4/19
ND 4/18
NE 4/19
OH 4/19
WV 4/19

Of those only MS, ND, and WV still haven't hit their predicted peak dates yet (so I would predict the other three are at or nearly at their peak already). It's possible some of the 6 states that peaked on 4/17 could have a jump that causes a new peak, but as each day passes it becomes more unlikely.

Fizzling.

[Kung Wu]

Hairy balls?

Ok that's hilarious!

[pie n eye]

What's the basis for that opinion? On the surface is makes no sense.

Yeah, it didn’t make much sense to me either. Basically that due to the global nature of the sport, players, fans, and support staff from all nations, that it would be impossible to restart without a vaccine. I guess from a travel perspective it makes sense depending on how soon international travel and borders are reopened to pre-lockdown levels.

However, I had to go back and find the article and the person who said it is a former tennis player so basically it’d be like a major news organization quoting me in an article, doesn’t mean much.