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  • SB Shock are you an expert in control systems (as in feedback loops) or highpass/lowpass filters? Anybody else on here have mathematical expertise in those areas?
    Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!

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    • Originally posted by wufan View Post

      I don’t think anyone is arguing this isn’t real. I think the argument is that the risk/reward scenario isn’t being discussed. 7-10 million dead in the US from this virus this year isn’t the risk. Refrigerated trucks full of cadavers isn’t the risk. The true risk is a second virus on top of the flu for which we don’t have a vaccine. The real risk is that we can’t take care of high risk patients.

      The issue with listening to “the scientists” is that the ones that are publishing papers are scientists in name only. These people have said YOU CANT BLOCK CHINESE TRAVEL. WE SHOULD HAVE BLOCKED CHINESE TRAVEL SOONER. DONT TOUCH ANYTHING. IT DIES WITHIN MINUTES ON SURFACES. HYDROCHLOROQUINN WILL KILL YOU. IT WILL CURE YOU. DONT PROTEST. PROTESTS ARE NECESSARY. They’ve said DO NOT WEAR A MASK! They’ve said YOU MUST WEAR A MASK. These scientists have shown gross incompetence, ignorance, and political bias. Everything about this is political. You shouldn’t try to club people for pointing that out.
      Thank you, well stated.

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      • Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
        SB Shock are you an expert in control systems (as in feedback loops) or highpass/lowpass filters? Anybody else on here have mathematical expertise in those areas?
        Yes in highpass/lowpass filters and signal processing (e.g. fft, spectograms, autopower, crosspower, etc). Would not characterize myself as expert in feedback loops as far as modeling, but have some experience.

        What are you thinking?

        Btw, since we are talking technical, it really looks like covid-19 acts like a wavelet.

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        • Originally posted by SB Shock View Post

          Yes in highpass/lowpass filters and signal processing (e.g. fft, spectograms, autopower, crosspower, etc). Would not characterize myself as expert in feedback loops as far as modeling, but have some experience.

          What are you thinking?

          Btw, since we are talking technical, it really looks like covid-19 acts like a wavelet.
          (sorry in meetings all morning)

          Interesting! I may hit you up for helping me create a model. Got to noodle it a bit more first.
          Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!

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          • Just kidding ya fellas... :)

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            • Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post

              (sorry in meetings all morning)

              Interesting! I may hit you up for helping me create a model. Got to noodle it a bit more first.
              I spent all morning trying to noodle it, the wife still said no. It was a war of attrition and I didn't come out on top.
              There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.

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              • https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...-surge/614122/

                There is no mystery in the number of Americans dying from COVID-19.

                Despite political leaders trivializing the pandemic, deaths are rising again: The seven-day average for deaths per day has now jumped by more than 200 since July 6, according to data compiled by the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic. By our count, states reported 855 deaths today, in line with the recent elevated numbers in mid-July.

                The deaths are not happening in unpredictable places. Rather, people are dying at higher rates where there are lots of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations: in Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California, as well as a host of smaller southern states that all rushed to open up.

                The deaths are also not happening in an unpredictable amount of time after the new outbreaks emerged. Simply look at the curves yourself. Cases began to rise on June 16; a week later, hospitalizations began to rise. Two weeks after that—21 days after cases rose—states began to report more deaths. That’s the exact number of days that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated from the onset of symptoms to the reporting of a death.
                But there’s another reason for some of the confusion about the severity of the outbreak right now. And that’s the perceived speed at which the outbreak initially landed on American shores and started killing people. The lack of testing let the virus run free in February and much of March. As my colleague Robinson Meyer and I put it at the time, “Without testing, there was only one way to know the severity of the outbreak: counting the dead.” And that is how we figured out how bad the outbreak was. Thousands began dying in the greater New York City area and a few other cities around the country in early April. The seven-day average for new cases peaked on April 10, followed by the peak of the seven-day average for daily deaths just 11 days later.

                Everything seemed to happen at once: lots of cases, lots of hospitalizations, lots of deaths. But some of this is also the compression of memory. Most of us remember the deaths in March beginning as quickly as the cases, especially given the testing debacle. That’s not exactly what happened, however. The nation did, in fact, see cases rise weeks before the death toll shot up. There was a time in March when we had detected more than 100 cases for each death we recorded. This is a crucial metric because it gets at the perceived gap between cases and deaths. And it tells us that we did see a lag between rising cases and deaths back in the spring.

                During the slow-decline phase in May, the case-to-deaths ratio fell to about 20. Then, this summer, the case-to-death ratio began to rise in early June. On July 6, the ratio hit 100 again, just like in the spring. But as in spring, this was not a good sign, but rather the leading indicator that a new round of outbreaks was taking hold in the country. And, indeed, a week ago, this ratio began to fall as deaths ramped up.
                Very robust and transparent article. It expounds on a lot of what I have been saying and further dispels some of the hysterical cognitive dissonance I have been facing in here.


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                • Here's is where you'll want to go for Covid statistics now that the CDC has been compromised:

                  Johns Hopkins experts in global public health, infectious disease, and emergency preparedness have been at the forefront of the international response to COVID-19.


                  Daily and weekly updated statistics tracking the number of COVID-19 cases, recovered, and deaths. Historical data with cumulative charts, graphs, and updates.



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                  • https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...on-data-to-cdc

                    The Trump administration has restored previously public data on COVID-19 hospitalizations after it disappeared from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website on Wednesday.

                    The CDC had been collecting that information from the start of the pandemic on its National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN), which the agency describes as the country’s most widely used health care-associated infection tracking system.

                    Researchers, public health experts and reporters used the CDC data to track COVID-19 hospitalizations.
                    Good news!

                    What a shitshow...


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                    • And just to say something positive: I want more than anything to walk into my favorite joint tonight, crack jokes and flirt with the waitresses, talking **** with my buddies... I believe that day will come with so many vaccines under way. It won't be here tomorrow, but maybe it will be here around Thanksgiving or Christmas? I'm not a huge drinker, but I tell you what, I will get pissed on that night. It will be a great day to be an American.

                      Let's just hold our sanity together for a few more months, share helpful information freely, keep an open mind, and stop the spread.


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                      • Originally posted by MoValley John View Post

                        I spent all morning trying to noodle it, the wife still said no. It was a war of attrition and I didn't come out on top.
                        You're just doing it wrong...

                        "You Just Want to Slap The #### Outta Some People"

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                        • A public meeting in Provo, Utah, about mask policy for schoolchildren was abruptly adjourned when people without masks packed the room.

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                          • That’s funny! Overpack a room to debate how best to stop the spread.
                            Livin the dream

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                            • https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/polit...rce/index.html

                              Task force report says 18 states in coronavirus 'red zone' should roll back reopening
                              An unpublished document prepared for the White House coronavirus task force and obtained by the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit newsroom, recommends that 18 states in the coronavirus "red zone" for cases should roll back reopening measures amid surging cases.

                              The "red zone" is defined in the 359-page report as "those core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) and counties that during the last week reported both new cases above 100 per 100,000 population, and a diagnostic test positivity result above 10%."
                              The report outlines measures counties in the red zone should take. It encourages residents to "wear a mask at all times outside the home and maintain physical distance." And it recommends that public officials "close bars and gyms" and "limit social gatherings to 10 people or fewer," which would mean rolling back reopening provisions in these places
                              The following 18 states are in the red zone for cases: Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.
                              Dr. Deborah Birx also said earlier this month that people living in states with coronavirus surges should return to the White House's original "phase one" recommendations on gatherings.
                              Citing guidelines such as wearing face masks and avoiding bars and indoor events, Birx said those steps should be resumed in order to bring cases back under control.
                              She said they are "asking the American people in those counties and in those states to not only use those face coverings, not going to bars, not going to indoor dining, but really not gathering in homes either. And decreasing those gatherings back down to our phase one recommendation, which was 10 or less."
                              Birx touted the importance of mask-wearing and said "any kind of indoor gathering" should be avoided in places experiencing a spike in cases.
                              Kansas is officially in the "red zone"! We're pissin' in tall Covid cotton now.

                              Sounds like rational steps from Dr. Birx. I like that woman. In fact, I pretty much like all the members of the task force.


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                              • Bob Nightengale

                                @BNightengale

                                So since the resumption of MLB spring training, there have been 17,949 samples, and 23 positive tests_18 players and five staff members_0.1%.

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