2015 Bracketology

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

One more thought, the B12 deserves no more than 5 bids. When ur so called tourny teams are losing games to TT, ur conference is not very good.

I assume you would leave out Texas? They are KenPom 21.
To give the Big 12 only 5 teams, you would also have to leave out Oklahoma St. They are KenPom 32.

Would you prefer Illinios make it? They are KenPom 53 and lost to Nebraska.
How about Old Dominion? KenPom 56, lost to UTSA, Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee
Stanford? KenPom 44, lost to Washington St and DePaul.
Temple? KenPom 52, Lost to St Joseph's.
Boise St? A decent KenPom of 36, but their bad losses are a very long list!

The point is, bubble teams have bad losses. They are flawed teams, thus the reason they are on the bubble in the first place. At the end of the day, you gotta fill out the bracket with 68 teams, and losing to a Texas Tech level team is a common occurrence for all the possible bubble candidates.

[AZ Shocker]

Some valid points Jamar. By comparison though...and I can't remember all the data but perhaps you have it available...what was Wichita St. rpi/sos in past years when we felt we might make the tourney and were left out? We all remember Missouri St. getting left out one time with a pretty decent rpi/etc. and it seems our Shockers in recent memory may have at least once or maybe twice been left out with a decent resume as well.

I realize it happens every year where teams that are deserving get left out...but it would be interesting to compare this seasons Holy Grail (the Big-12) numbers to teams who have been left out in the past.

[rayc]

JH4P:

I assume you would leave out Texas? They are KenPom 21.To give the Big 12 only 5 teams, you would also have to leave out Oklahoma St. They are KenPom 32.

The problem is that the committee doesn't use KenPom ratings, they use RPI. Currently both
Texas (Rpi 43) and Oklahoma State (Rpi 46) are bubble teams. Although they are both on the
"good" side they both could easily be left out.

This time of the year KenPom ranking are worthless for anything other than maybe head to head
game projections. I'm not sure how good they are for that, I've never seen any analysis of their
overall accuracy in the one area they were designed for.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Actually, some committee members DO look at KenPom too. Maybe not as heavily as RPI, but it is incorrect to say the committee doesn't use KenPom at all, and to call it "worthless" at this time of year is very naive.

More to my point, I was not arguing that OSU and Texas must be given bids this year. I was simply refuting the concept that losing to Texas Tech is somehow a worse "bad loss" than what almost every other bubble team will have on their resume.

[rayc]

Actually giving Texas a national ranking 21 and Oklahoma State one of 32 seems more naive than
my questioning the worth of KenPom this time of the year. Oh well it is what it is.

[WillieJeffJeffries]

I assume you would leave out Texas? They are KenPom 21.
To give the Big 12 only 5 teams, you would also have to leave out Oklahoma St. They are KenPom 32.

Would you prefer Illinios make it? They are KenPom 53 and lost to Nebraska.
How about Old Dominion? KenPom 56, lost to UTSA, Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee
Stanford? KenPom 44, lost to Washington St and DePaul.
Temple? KenPom 52, Lost to St Joseph's.
Boise St? A decent KenPom of 36, but their bad losses are a very long list!

The point is, bubble teams have bad losses. They are flawed teams, thus the reason they are on the bubble in the first place. At the end of the day, you gotta fill out the bracket with 68 teams, and losing to a Texas Tech level team is a common occurrence for all the possible bubble candidates.

Im an OSU grad and I would say Kenny has my Caboys way overrated.....at some point you have to look at the talent on the court. Is OSU one of the 65 best, sure, but because of AQ's they and Texas are not qualified to be at-large teams. I am a B12 fan, but they are not a good BB conference and that gets proven year after year in the NCAA's. I would bet since the B12 was formed, the B12 has the fewest NC's, FF's E8's and S16's of any of the P5's....but I would bet they have had the most overall bids. Power numbers are fine but they are not always right.....PS Temple crushed KU by 30. I guess my point is this, most of those teams you mention, Temple, BSU, ODU ect aren't from a conference being proclaimed to be the best in the country. I would be surprised if any B12 team makes it past S16. After UK, Duke, Wisky, this is the biggest crap shoot I can remember

[wsushockerdude]

I would suggest to those reading this thread to check out Seth Davis' article: http://t.co/XYRMeqDewx.

It debunks many of the myths people are claiming on here. Good reference point.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I see a lot of responses trying to get into a debate about OSU's and Texas' complete resumes. That is a fine conversation to have, but it goes way beyond what I'm trying to say. I'm not trying to make a comprehensive argument for or against either team's at large chances at the moment. I'm just trying to say that the comment about losses to Texas Tech being proof that the Big 12 deserves no more than 5 teams was not well thought out. By that standard, you wouldn't be able to fill the 68 team bracket and would probably be 10-15 teams short.

[Ashockalypse]

Wanna bet

[WillieJeffJeffries]

I see a lot of responses trying to get into a debate about OSU's and Texas' complete resumes. That is a fine conversation to have, but it goes way beyond what I'm trying to say. I'm not trying to make a comprehensive argument for or against either team's at large chances at the moment. I'm just trying to say that the comment about losses to Texas Tech being proof that the Big 12 deserves no more than 5 teams was not well thought out. By that standard, you wouldn't be able to fill the 68 team bracket and would probably be 10-15 teams short.

Again, if the NCAA just put in the top 68 teams into the tourney then the B12 probably get 7 maybe 8 in, but under the AQ rules not so much....My original statement is that the B12 is an overrated conference, history proves this to be true........you brought up OSU and UT.

[AZ Shocker]

When most of the country thinks of Mid-Majors...and their recent success....most think of Gonzaga, Wichita St., VCU, Butler right? Yeah...well....Lunardi now has ALL 4 of 'em in the same South bracket. What a tool...

[WillieJeffJeffries]

When most of the country thinks of Mid-Majors...and their recent success....most think of Gonzaga, Wichita St., VCU, Butler right? Yeah...well....Lunardi now has ALL 4 of 'em in the same South bracket. What a tool...

He also has WVU playing the winner of Tex/ODU in a play in game....not going to happen. no way they would let two B12 teams match up in the first rd.....point is, don't make too much of these tool produced brackets

[WillieJeffJeffries]

Looking at ESPN's bracket, from the 3 seeds (OU, IwSt, ND and Maryland) to the 8/9 line...they are all pretty much the same team. I think you will see more Vegas Line upsets this year than ever. I wouldn't even try to handicap it, just take 32 dogs in the first Rd and you'll hit 60% ATS.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Lunardi is producing a billion brackets this time of year. I'm pretty sure he doesn't have time to do a detailed analysis of each one to look at things like "oh wow, 4 mid majors in the same region" or "oh wow, a Big 12 play-in team might match up with another Big 12 team in the round of 64 if they win". I'm sure he tries to avoid these types of things if he can, but there is just no way he could constantly catch all of those issues in every bracket he throws out.

Basically, don't put too much stock into the regional assignments or other minor details. Look at his actual seeds to the extent you feel his opinion is worth anything and ignore the rest. Outside of maybe the 1 and 2 seeds, nobody really has a clue prior to selection sunday which regions teams will be placed in or what matchups will be arranged.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

The Bracket Matrix has 42 brackets listed as updated yesterday. (therefore including WSU’s loss to ISUr)

Average Seed = 4.93

(3) – 3
(4) – 8
(5) – 24
(6) – 4
(7) – 2
(8) – 1

I can’t 100% promise WSU will be a 5 seed, but I think it is FAR AND AWAY the most likely at this point.

Also, in case you were wondering, the guy who has WSU as an 8 also has UNI as an 11. Basically, a moron who should be ignored. I would accept a ban from this board for any length of Fever's choosing if WSU or UNI were to fall to an 8, much less an 11. It isn't happening.

UNI's average of the 42 brackets is 4.64, and that is prior to their win over ISUr yesterday.