Poll Watch (2013-14 Edition)

[shocker3]

Petro's AP College Basketball Top 25 Ballot - Dec 29
Dec 29, 2013 -- 9:45pm

By Soren Petro

1. Arizona
2. Ohio St.
3. Syracuse
4. Michigan St.
5. Oklahoma St.
6. Wisconsin
7. Wichita St.
8. Duke
9. Oregon
10. Iowa St.
11. Villanova
12. Baylor
13. Louisville
14. Connecticut
15. Florida
16. Kentucky
17. Memphis
18. San Diego St.
19. Kansas
20. Colorado
21. North Carolina
22. Iowa
23. Michigan
24. Gonzaga
25. George Washington

NOTES
Missouri is sitting at 28th.
Kansas St. is on the "Watch List".
Missouri St. is on the "Watch List".

I like this ballot!

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Gonzaga has had great poll rankings, but doesn't have notable runs in March.

Let me nitpick a little…

Gonzaga:
1999 – Elite 8
2000 – Sweet 16
2001 – Sweet 16
2002 – Round of 64
2003 – Round of 32
2004 – Round of 32
2005 – Round of 32
2006 – Sweet 16
2007 – Round of 64
2008 – Round of 64
2009 – Sweet 16
2010 – Round of 32
2011 – Round of 32
2012 – Round of 32
2013 – Round of 32

Yes, 3 of the Sweet 16’s (one which was actually an Elite 8) were a while ago, but those 3 stacked together are what “made” Gonzaga who they are today. Since those 3 years, simply making the NCAA tournament and occasional winning a game has been all it has taken for Gonzaga to maintain their national brand.

With WSU’s Sweet 16 in 2006, NIT championship in 2011, NCAA appearance in 2012, and 2013’s run all the way to the Final Four (something Gonzaga has yet to do), I think this year is HUGE towards WSU’s national brand. Lose early in the tournament and some of the momentum is stifled. Make a Sweet 16 (it is such a key benchmark) and I feel WSU will have arrived at Gonzaga status. At that point simply keeping a streak alive of NCAA appearances like Gonzaga did post 2001 should be enough for WSU to basically be Gonzaga #2. The exciting part is to imagine what happens if WSU’s next 10 years exceed Gonzaga’s mediocre last 10. The upside is huge! Then again, miss a tournament or two and… well… let’s not think about that. :-)

[ShockRef]

http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/notebook?id=10188129&wjb

As WSU wins and wins some more in The Valley, the strength of schedule will become even more prominent among the talking heads.
However, they can not discount they are 17-1 over the last 18 non-conference games they have played (I know, I am going back to the Pitt game from the last year, big deal).

They have beat teams from all BCS conferences galore. Big East, Big 10, SEC & A-10, you name it.

They can try and discount Valley opponents but this team and their leader have taken all comers and beat them.


They won last years in season tournament. They won this years in season tournament.

They won 30 games last year and on pace to win 30 this year.

They participated in something called The Final 4 last year.


The pundits who feel the need keep picking away should stop and start acknowledging what success looks like.


That is all.

[jocoshock]

I like this ballot!

Speaking strictly tongue in cheek, he has to keep us up there, his mother is a WSU alum...:good:

But seriously, he has been a big supporter of the program this year. He won't hesitate to express his sincere opinion, even if it is not what we want to hear, but this year, so far, he is planted firmly in the middle of the bandwagon seats.

[calfan]

Based on this year's WSU performance as of today,

I would have a hard time not picking the Shockers for 7.

I do believe that right now they are better than Duke, WOW.

[Rosewood]

With 5 wins over top 100 teams, and the only team with that record, I feel like we finally jump Duke

[jocoshock]

Michael DeCourcy @tsnmike 34s
Rick Pitino: 2013 Ending on a bad note. Chane Behanan has been dismissed by the university.

Seems like Louisville may be taking a big hit from the Kentucky loss this week. This news is coming out too late to have any impact on this week's polls. Will be interesting to in the coming week how this news weighs on the minds of the voters and other experts.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

#8 in the AP

I'll post a link when I can unless someone can beat me to it

[Cdizzle]

#8 in the AP

I'll post a link when I can unless someone can beat me to it

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/poll/1

This is awesome.

[Play Angry]

Games this week for teams ahead of us:

#1 Arizona- vs. Washington State (1/2), vs. Washington (1/4)
#2 Syracuse- vs. Eastern Michigan (12/31), vs. Miami, FL (1/4)
#3 Ohio State- @ Purdue (12/31), vs. Nebraska (1/4)
#4 Wisconsin- @ Northwestern (1/2), vs. # 22 Iowa (1/5)
#5 Michigan State- @ Penn State (12/31), @ Indiana (1/4)
#6 Oklahoma State- vs. Robert Morris (12/30), @ Kansas State (1/4)
#7 Duke- @ Elon (12/31), @ Notre Dame (1/4)

Teams behind us with games that could provide a big boost-

#10 Oregon- @ Utah (1/2), @ #20 Colorado (1/5)


The Shockers received 1,067 votes this week (up from 981 last week). We trail #7 Duke by 77 votes (down from 127 last week) and lead #9 Baylor by 44 votes (up from 11 last week).



Respect. It is building.

[wufan]

Assuming that we continue to win, the poll mechanics will be quite interesting going forward. 15 of the top 16 teams are from BCS conferences and will see a noticeable bump in schedule difficulty. Despite the increased difficulty, any teams losing ahead of us will fall, eventually allowing us to catch them. Any teams winning behind us will rise and eventually catch us. We could hypothetically remain undefeated for another 10 games and be anywhere between 1 and 12 in the polls depending on how the BCSers play.

[jocoshock]

Eager to see the coaches poll...

[Cdizzle]

Eager to see the coaches poll...

7 at best. Can only hop Lville.

[Play Angry]

Below is the trend for our AP ranking this year. Aside from that strange hiccup in week 6, there really is nothing to complain about.

Preseason- #16
Week 2- #16 (win vs. Emporia State)
Week 3- #14 (wins vs. William & Mary, Tennessee State)
Week 4- #12 (win @ Tulsa)
Week 5- #11 (wins vs. DePaul (n), BYU (n), @ SLU)
Week 6- #12 (win vs. Oral Roberts)
Week 7- #11 (win vs. Tennessee)
Week 8- #10 (wins @ Alabama, vs. NC Central)
Week 9- #8 (win vs. Davidson)



Poll mechanics will work in our favor the rest of the year.

[Shocker85]

Assuming that we continue to win, the poll mechanics will be quite interesting going forward. 15 of the top 16 teams are from BCS conferences and will see a noticeable bump in schedule difficulty. Despite the increased difficulty, any teams losing ahead of us will fall, eventually allowing us to catch them. Any teams winning behind us will rise and eventually catch us. We could hypothetically remain undefeated for another 10 games and be anywhere between 1 and 12 in the polls depending on how the BCSers play.

I don't see WSU getting higher than about #5 or #6.

More than likely, the power conference teams will lose a game here and there, but they will also win games vs. ranked opponents. The Shocks don't have the opportunity for marquee wins going forward. Pollsters will have a hard time writing WSU into the top 5 IMO, regardless of the record. I don't recall how high Murray St. got in the polls two seasons ago when they got to 23-0, but I'm not sure they ever even cracked the top 10. Granted, WSU <> Murray St. and the '13-'14 Shocks are coming off the Final Four and aren't an 'unknown', but the same poll dynamics and BCS bias of AP voters are going to slow the rise to the top, IMO.

Another item of concern to me is the erosion of the RPI that will kick in with MVC play. Win or lose, we won't get a boost from any of the remaining games.

--'85.