Originally posted by ABC
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Has anyone been tracking the "Easiest Bubble Solver?"
http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2053
Apparently, it has been extremely accurate over the past three years. I took a look at the Shockers total for this year vs. Bubble Teams in years past and determined that we should feel safely in. I need to look at WSU vs. current bubble teams to verify this feeling....
This is from KenPom:
The Easiest Bubble Solver as invented by Drew Cannon has had a pretty good track record the past three years sorting out bubble teams. For those unaware, the EBS simply adds the ranking of a team in the RPI to its ranking in my system. You can take the lowest ranked teams from that method to determine who is in and who is out.
Last season, it missed on one at-large team. Of the 115 bracketologists shown at the Bracket Matrix, only one did better. And these are people spending a lot of time to figure this out. In 2011, it missed on two teams. Just one of 89 bracketologists did better. In 2010, it missed one team in a season when just 10 of 85 bracketologists picked a perfect field.
Note here that I don’t think my system is a special ingredient in this. You could probably take any reputable predictive system and get similar results. The point is the committee may subjectively include information beyond what the RPI reveals by itself.
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Originally posted by proshox View PostHas anyone been tracking the "Easiest Bubble Solver?"
Apparently, it has been extremely accurate over the past three years. I took a look at the Shockers total for this year vs. Bubble Teams in years past and determined that we should feel safely in. I need to look at WSU vs. current bubble teams to verify this feeling....
This is from KenPom:
The Easiest Bubble Solver as invented by Drew Cannon has had a pretty good track record the past three years sorting out bubble teams. For those unaware, the EBS simply adds the ranking of a team in the RPI to its ranking in my system. You can take the lowest ranked teams from that method to determine who is in and who is out.
Last season, it missed on one at-large team. Of the 115 bracketologists shown at the Bracket Matrix, only one did better. And these are people spending a lot of time to figure this out. In 2011, it missed on two teams. Just one of 89 bracketologists did better. In 2010, it missed one team in a season when just 10 of 85 bracketologists picked a perfect field.
Note here that I don’t think my system is a special ingredient in this. You could probably take any reputable predictive system and get similar results. The point is the committee may subjectively include information beyond what the RPI reveals by itself.
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While I don't think it's a great idea just to take one person's opinion on any of this, Eamonn Brennan is doing a good job describing just how stupidly, absurdly soft the bubble is this year: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=148There are nights when I think that Sal Paradise was right.
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Just for reference....
St. Mary's has a higher RPI and More Wins/Less Losses than we do and is considered firmly on the bubble and on the outside looking in on some peoples brackets?
I just don't know how we are a "lock" at the moment.The mountains are calling, and I must go.
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St. Mary's shares a home win over Creighton with WSU. Toss that out and you have the following:
Best wins for St. Mary's:
61 - @BYU
61 - BYU
90 - @Santa Clara
90 - Santa Clara
100 - Harvard
Best wins for WSU:
27 - @VCU
39 - Southern Miss
58 - Detroit
72 - Northern Iowa
76 - Iowa (neutral site)
77 - @Indiana State
87 - @Air Force
Quality wins matter to the committee. WSU has significantly more than St. Mary's. WSU shouldn't be a lock just yet, but they should be ranked ahead of St. Mary's.
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Originally posted by wsushox1 View PostJust for reference....
St. Mary's has a higher RPI and More Wins/Less Losses than we do and is considered firmly on the bubble and on the outside looking in on some peoples brackets?
I just don't know how we are a "lock" at the moment.
At the moment, we're a lock. If we lose tomorrow, you can plant us firmly on the bubble. If we win, you can throw away the key.
EDIT: And I see JH4P beat me to it.Deuces Valley.
... No really, deuces.
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- a smart man
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