Bracketology

[pinstripers]

There's really not another MVC team that should be mentioned.

unless one wins the mvc tourney

[Dan]

The biggest problem is that we've been steadily dropping each week. A loss on Friday could move us to the wrong side of the bubble. We need to win one game in a bad way, 2 wins would put us in cruise control.

[tropicalshox]

Wishing you well @shockerfanmas:.

[GoShockers89]

Still #39 on today's Lunardi S-Curve.

[proshox]

Has anyone been tracking the "Easiest Bubble Solver?"

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2053

Apparently, it has been extremely accurate over the past three years. I took a look at the Shockers total for this year vs. Bubble Teams in years past and determined that we should feel safely in. I need to look at WSU vs. current bubble teams to verify this feeling....

This is from KenPom:

The Easiest Bubble Solver as invented by Drew Cannon has had a pretty good track record the past three years sorting out bubble teams. For those unaware, the EBS simply adds the ranking of a team in the RPI to its ranking in my system. You can take the lowest ranked teams from that method to determine who is in and who is out.

Last season, it missed on one at-large team. Of the 115 bracketologists shown at the Bracket Matrix, only one did better. And these are people spending a lot of time to figure this out. In 2011, it missed on two teams. Just one of 89 bracketologists did better. In 2010, it missed one team in a season when just 10 of 85 bracketologists picked a perfect field.

Note here that I don’t think my system is a special ingredient in this. You could probably take any reputable predictive system and get similar results. The point is the committee may subjectively include information beyond what the RPI reveals by itself.

[Shockeriffic]

Has anyone been tracking the "Easiest Bubble Solver?"

http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2053

Apparently, it has been extremely accurate over the past three years. I took a look at the Shockers total for this year vs. Bubble Teams in years past and determined that we should feel safely in. I need to look at WSU vs. current bubble teams to verify this feeling....

This is from KenPom:

The Easiest Bubble Solver as invented by Drew Cannon has had a pretty good track record the past three years sorting out bubble teams. For those unaware, the EBS simply adds the ranking of a team in the RPI to its ranking in my system. You can take the lowest ranked teams from that method to determine who is in and who is out.

Last season, it missed on one at-large team. Of the 115 bracketologists shown at the Bracket Matrix, only one did better. And these are people spending a lot of time to figure this out. In 2011, it missed on two teams. Just one of 89 bracketologists did better. In 2010, it missed one team in a season when just 10 of 85 bracketologists picked a perfect field.

Note here that I don’t think my system is a special ingredient in this. You could probably take any reputable predictive system and get similar results. The point is the committee may subjectively include information beyond what the RPI reveals by itself.

I saw that and I've been keeping up on it. After the Sunday games, WSU rose 3 spots to #35. The Creighton game made our RPI go up and kenpom stayed the same. Colorado and Virginia lost and Illinois played close to a bad Nebraska team. The typical last 4 in teams in most brackets have been in the 50-52 range but after Sundays games that dropped to the 57-59 range. WSU is safely in by that measure.

[proshox]

Wishing you well @shockerfanmas:.

Me too! Don't let the fever get you down

[rrshock]

So what does Iowa St and Villanova do to the at large picture?

[Jeffrey Korchek]

While I don't think it's a great idea just to take one person's opinion on any of this, Eamonn Brennan is doing a good job describing just how stupidly, absurdly soft the bubble is this year: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=148

[wsushox1]

Just for reference....

St. Mary's has a higher RPI and More Wins/Less Losses than we do and is considered firmly on the bubble and on the outside looking in on some peoples brackets?

I just don't know how we are a "lock" at the moment.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

St. Mary's shares a home win over Creighton with WSU. Toss that out and you have the following:

Best wins for St. Mary's:
61 - @BYU
61 - BYU
90 - @Santa Clara
90 - Santa Clara
100 - Harvard

Best wins for WSU:
27 - @VCU
39 - Southern Miss
58 - Detroit
72 - Northern Iowa
76 - Iowa (neutral site)
77 - @Indiana State
87 - @Air Force

Quality wins matter to the committee. WSU has significantly more than St. Mary's. WSU shouldn't be a lock just yet, but they should be ranked ahead of St. Mary's.

[GoShockers89]

Just wanted to thank @Jamar Howard 4 President: for his analysis. I always enjoy your insight.

[ShockerFever]

Just for reference....

St. Mary's has a higher RPI and More Wins/Less Losses than we do and is considered firmly on the bubble and on the outside looking in on some peoples brackets?

I just don't know how we are a "lock" at the moment.

Because RPI and wins and losses aren't the sole determining factors when judging teams' at-large admissions into the field. What are their SOS numbers? Outside of their lucky pairing with sCUm in the BB, what did they do non-con wise?

At the moment, we're a lock. If we lose tomorrow, you can plant us firmly on the bubble. If we win, you can throw away the key.


EDIT: And I see JH4P beat me to it.

[ShockerPrez]

Lets just win the effing tourney for once and just. Man, that would be sweet.


Ahhh. Maybe this year. Maybe.

[shock-it-to-me]

Lets just win the effing tourney for once and just. Man, that would be sweet.


Ahhh. Maybe this year. Maybe.

We are so long overdue its not even funny.