2020-21 Bracketology

[Stickboy46]

Apparently Drake is getting a bye today because UNI had a positive test.

[wichshock65]

Apparently Drake is getting a bye today because UNI had a positive test.

Well, I guess it doesn't help them toward the dance. Push I suppose.

[Stickboy46]

Well, I guess it doesn't help them toward the dance. Push I suppose.

A win wouldn't have helped them either. But a potential loss would have locked them out.

[The Mad Hatter]

Tulsa was a co-champ last year and wasn't going to get in... same likely with Cincy if I remember right. It happens when you don't get to play all the good teams. We are missing at least three resume building games from this conference.

One difference is that, according to Kenpom, Tulsa had the 315th ranked non-con SOS last year, whereas WSU has the 38th ranked non-con SOS this year.

[wichshock65]

I love this kind of thinking from our Jayturd friends!

[Kung Wu]

First of all, let me just say that Kenpom's algorithm rocks. There's no denying that.

The issue isn't that Kenpom's luck factor is unreasonable. It IS reasonable.

On Kenpom we have won 14 of 18 games for a 0.777 win percentage.

Our luck factor is 0.160, which means his algorithm says we should be 0.777 - 0.160 = 0.617

In other words, instead of 14-4 we should be 11-7, based on his expectation. So which games should we have lost?

I don't know but it's not _unreasonable_ to think we could have lost these games:

at Tulsa
at Ole Miss
at UCF

My concern is that the expectation is seeded with preseason data and there's no way to shed it. The resulting dampening isn't "bad", but it feels like it if you are in the 55-65 range where it reduces your ranking by 10 spots (relative to Sagarin) and gives bad optics to decision makers that arbitrarily may use these metrics.

If I were a gambler, I would spend quite a bit of time analyzing _the extremes_ of the "luck" portion of Kenpom's analytics. Because Kenpom often seeds the sportsbooks, I believe this is where you would find nuance to give you an edge while the odds are "early" (before there is much action on the particular game).

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

I love this kind of thinking from our Jayturd friends!

Not even sure where to begin with this. I think he’s been sucking on the pipe a bit. Total garbage. Typical delusion from Larry land.

[wichshock65]

[ShockingButTrue]

Well, they have shown that they can play with the O-State's of the college basketball world.

[Stickboy46]

Also of note,. After NET updates tomorrow, all of WSUs losses except 1 will be Q1. The only one that would be Q2 would be Missouri

[wichshock65]

Also of note,. After NET updates tomorrow, all of WSUs losses except 1 will be Q1. The only one that would be Q2 would be Missouri

Still shows 2-2 both Q1 and Q2.

[WuDrWu]

Well, here is your answer from Palm. Sounds crazy to me but what the hell do I know.

This is my current hot button annoyance with sports media, and it's beyond a pandemic.

From the article:

"WSU is looking to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018. "


Okay, LITERALLY EVERY PROGRAM IN THE NATION is looking to return to the Tournament for the first time since 2019, so we're one off that. Wow, what a stunning revelation.

It's just so lazy. It's not quite as bad as (for example) in football when the ESPN crawler states it's the first win for Nebraska at Indiana since 2017. Well, being in the other B1G division means they don't play at all for 2 years, then home and home for 2 years, so it turns out in fact the last time they actually played in Bloomington Nebraska won....how do these people get jobs???!!


Also is overplaying the recent Shocker win over Houston. First top 6 win in (what was it) 56 years? How many top 6 opponents have we played here since then? I attend most games, haven't missed a ton since about '77 and I don't remember thinking to myself "Boy, top 6 teams sure are on a heater against my Shocks lately".

[Stickboy46]

Still shows 2-2 both Q1 and Q2.

Oklahoma State moved to 30 this morning so is a Q1 loss as of right now.

Also our NET dropped 2 spots to 65 after a 17 point win. Needed it to be 30.

[SkoShox]

I believe you guys about the NET and how terrible it is now. It took me awhile to see the light but I’m here. Kentucky beats South Carolina by 30 and goes from 65 to 58. Wow. Oklahoma State goes on the road and beats a higher NET WVU and moves up 1 measly spot.

[wichshock65]

Oklahoma State moved to 30 this morning so is a Q1 loss as of right now.

Also our NET dropped 2 spots to 65 after a 17 point win. Needed it to be 30.

Kenpom dropped as well.