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2020-21 Bracketology

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  • Originally posted by FadedCrown View Post

    They're a 12 seed below the cutline.
    ?? I don't see a cutline: 2021 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball - CBSSports.com

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    • View the seeds in the table. WSU is behind Indiana, the last team in.

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      • If we were in as an At-large as a 12 we would be in the First four. The First four has 2 11s and 2s 12s. It's possible we might be in the first 4 if we were at-large, but he doesn't denote that anywhere. Either way .. we are right there. Keep winning and we should be fine.

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        • FWIW, the Wins Above Bubble metric by Bart Torvik has us as an 8 seed.

          Big difference between descriptive (WAB) and predictive metrics (KenPom). Descriptive metrics should matter more in terms of tournament selection and seeding, but predictive metrics matter in terms of who is more likely to win. Missouri is a great example. Their resume is good, but the predictive metrics are not near as favorable.
          "In God we trust, all others must bring data." - W. Edwards Deming

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          • WSU is #36 in ESPN’s strength of record, but #100 in BPI. BPI, Kenpom & NET have some issues this year. It appears that margin of victory against bad teams is coming much to much into play. Nothing against Loyola & Drake but the Valley has 6 teams lower in the NET than the lowest team in the AAC. As I wrote before, it would be interesting to know how these metrics would look if you did not include quad 4 games.

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            • It’s funny because we’re probably one last second shot by OSU from being ranked. That win would’ve put us on the radar and we’d probably be ranked by now.

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              • Originally posted by Shocker82/85 View Post
                WSU is #36 in ESPN’s strength of record, but #100 in BPI. BPI, Kenpom & NET have some issues this year. It appears that margin of victory against bad teams is coming much to much into play. Nothing against Loyola & Drake but the Valley has 6 teams lower in the NET than the lowest team in the AAC. As I wrote before, it would be interesting to know how these metrics would look if you did not include quad 4 games.
                i don’t care about Loyola or Drake, but they are experiencing the same blowback that we used to get when we were in the Valley. Our excuse was “we can only play the games we can play”. Can’t hold it against them that their conference sucks. Most of the P5 thinks the AAC sucks.

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                • Originally posted by Dan View Post

                  i don’t care about Loyola or Drake, but they are experiencing the same blowback that we used to get when we were in the Valley. Our excuse was “we can only play the games we can play”. Can’t hold it against them that their conference sucks. Most of the P5 thinks the AAC sucks.
                  The problem this year is, they can’t only play the teams they can play, because other teams are having to cancel games.

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                  • Originally posted by Dan View Post
                    It’s funny because we’re probably one last second shot by OSU from being ranked. That win would’ve put us on the radar and we’d probably be ranked by now.
                    With our record, if we were in the B12 or B10, a win against number 6 Houston would get us ranked the following week.

                    I have no idea who is ahead of us but I think we’ll get more than one vote this time.

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                    • Originally posted by Dan View Post

                      i don’t care about Loyola or Drake, but they are experiencing the same blowback that we used to get when we were in the Valley. Our excuse was “we can only play the games we can play”. Can’t hold it against them that their conference sucks. Most of the P5 thinks the AAC sucks.
                      The big difference from our time in the Valley and what they're going thru, is we scheduled non-con games to try and make up for the lack of strength in the conference. I haven't looked at Loyola's schedule, but I know Drake's was awful.
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                      • Originally posted by SubGod22 View Post

                        The big difference from our time in the Valley and what they're going thru, is we scheduled non-con games to try and make up for the lack of strength in the conference. I haven't looked at Loyola's schedule, but I know Drake's was awful.
                        Loyola played 6 Non-Con games

                        2 home Non-D1 Games (wins)
                        Home: Chicago State NET 346 (win)
                        Home: UIC NET 273 (win)
                        Away: Wisconsin NET 22 (14 pt loss)
                        Home: Richmond NET 61 (2 pt loss)

                        So they at least half tried but didn't win any of the impressive non-con games. They are 1-2 Q1, 4-2 Q2 So about equal to our 2-2, 2-2 Split. They have played a total of 9 Q4 games though.

                        Only thing on their resume that stands out as drastically better than ours is their NET ranking.

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                        • It was held against WSU that our conference sucked. Look at our seedings in the NCAA tournament. NCAA didn’t start using NET until 2018/2019 season. WSU was out of the MVC. 20 teams ahead of WSU in the NET have 2 or fewer wins against quad 4 teams. 23 teams have 5 or more quad 4 wins. WSU has 2 quad 4 wins. I am suggesting the equalization of the effect of quad 4 wins/blowouts included in evaluating teams who are being considered for the NCAA tournament. Eliminate, limit or add games to each schools record. I don’t care how. All quad 4 games are not the same either. WSU’s worst quad 4 win is #185 ORU. There are 350 teams.

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                          • Loyola is the #1 defensive team in the nation, according to KenPom.

                            While that seems high, based on the two low scoring games I saw against Drake, I can believe they are ranked near the top.

                            They also have a lot of 15+ point wins, which for sure is helping.
                            Last edited by Shock Top; February 19, 2021, 04:38 PM.

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                            • I could care less about seeding as long as WSU is in. UMBC proved 2 years ago that the seed is just a number.

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                              • I never cease to be amazed by WSU fans.
                                For the last decade, we have had one of the 10 best programs in the USA.
                                We have been to 8 Big Dances, and would likely have gone last year.

                                We are one of five teams in the country to have won 22 games nine years in a row.

                                We have a good strength of schedule (look at many of the other teams in the tourney, including Drake and Loyola).


                                Yet we are always anguished about getting in to the Dance, and grateful when we do.

                                I am not, I think it is a bunch of bull*** that every year we go through this same agony.


                                We are a nationally-recognized powerhouse based in RESULTS.

                                In the last few years, we have beat Gonzaga, KU, Indiana and many other "name" schools. Indiana twice.
                                We have beat the teams (big and little, power conferences, famous name schools) put in front of us and done very well in the Big Dance over the last decade.

                                Schools like Kentucky are automatically considered for the tournement unless they have such a crappy season that it can in no way be justified.
                                Even now at 6-13 some are arguing that they can still get in!
                                Same with KU, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Texas, Indiana, Duke, etc.

                                WE HAVE EARNED AND SHOULD GET THE SAME RESPECT.

                                So all of you can worry and be grateful when we barely sqeek in.

                                I think it is a bunch of crap. Even Memphis is always assumed to be, in the dance over the last few years because only of their recruiting, and then they flame out almost every year.
                                But they get the benefit of the doubt WSU simply NEVER gets.

                                Even middle of the road Power Conference teams get this same benefit of the doubt, look at their schedules!
                                Well, our schedule is pretty damn tough too, and look what we have done for the past decade.

                                I EXPECT to be in the Tournament. We DESERVE to be in the tournmant.

                                Don't even get me started on Wright State, St. Louis, BYU, UC Santa Barbara, and best of all, mighty Colgate.

                                Bah!

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