American Athletic Conference

[DwShock]

@72 I agree reform the valley. First step fire Elgin. New blood is needed badly.

[ShockerPhi]

I disagree - we had plenty of chances to solidify our resume and didn't. WSU was very strong on defense and average on offense. The lack of balance made WSU beatable by descent teams.

Put WSU in a different league and we would have seen more losses; therefore, the net effect of being in the MVC was minimal. WSU was well served by the weakness in this year’s MVC which allowed WSU to quickly climb the polls multiple times as a result of “poll mechanics and winning streaks.”

When you set expectations for last year, was our non-conference record anywhere near your worst case projections? I would guess not. We still got in.

WSU needs to stay focused on supporting the coaches, the facilities, and taking care of players. The MVC isn’t a problem.

Fair argument, but what about 2014-2015 season. We lost one Valley game (on the ROAD to ranked UNI) and we still got a mediocre 7 seed. Blew every other Valley team out of the water that year. We performed pretty well in the Non-Con as well that year.

[ShockerNut2305]

Fair argument, but what about 2014-2015 season. We lost one Valley game (on the ROAD to ranked UNI) and we still got a mediocre 7 seed. Blew every other Valley team out of the water that year. We performed pretty well in the Non-Con as well that year.

That was all about the matchup the committee moved us down a couple seed lines for better match ups in my opinion.

[OPShocker]

Does anyone know the conference bylaw requirement to expel a member institution? If it takes something like a 75-80% vote against, then it is probably unlikely. A more likely scenario might be to
raise the bar with respect to certain requirements based on rpi, scheduling, attendance, salaries, etc., so that staying in the conference is just too great. However, with the current limp administration
running the show that is probably not very likely either. I think to effect meaningful change, we need a coalition of programs, not just us.

[SHOCKvalue]

I think it would be easier to reform and improve the Valley than it would to try to form a totally new conference from scratch.

I say keep WSU, UNI, MSU, ILS, INS and SIU. Add North Dakota State and South Dakota State. Make BRD, DRK, EVN and LOY make a compelling case why they should be retained. If they can't make that case then look for the best replacements you can get to maintain the conference at at least 10 teams.

Assuming none of the 4 bottom feeders can make a compelling case I would look for the 2 replacements to get us back to 10 teams.

For some reason Arkansas - Little Rock appeals to me. Would have to study the options a bit more.

That said I am not sure the will to do something like this exists with the Elgin-lead MVC and its other member institutions. This wouldn't be a great conference but it's better that what the MVC is currently bringing to the table.

I might differ with you on throwing Bradley overboard (simply because they do have history and support - fiscal and fan base) and on the idea of adding UALR, but otherwise I love the idea of getting rid of the other weak, underfunded MVC privates, and adding SDSU, NDSU, and someone else who displays a commitment to funding and a strong fan base (both of which NDSU and SDSU bring more of in spades than the MVC's glorified D2 instituitions Loyola, Evansville, and Drake).

[ShockTalk]

I'm not assuming any easy wins. The only thing I'm trying to say is that the opportunity to get those 8 point wins is nonexistent in the Valley. There simply is zero room to make an improvement in your rpi when you're playing against bottom 50-100 rpi teams. And apparently, this year at least, rpi mattered at least a little.

You might like this "War Games" approach. Using rpiforcasting.com, one can replace up to 5 games played by dropping those 5 and adding 5 new games. I did not use any post season games, conference or NCAA.

Dropped were both games with Drake and Bradley, and our home game with Loyola. Those are the bottom 3 RPI teams in the Valley.

I replaced those games with the bottom 3 RPI teams from the Mid-American, 2 with Western Michigan and Bowling Green, and 1 with Miami Ohio.

This was WSU's actual numbers on the season: Record 23-8, SoS 106, RPI 47

WSU's numbers on the season with changes: Record 23-8, SoS 76, RPI 28

All I did was change the bottom teams.

What happens when I substitute in Valpo(49), SF Austin(61), and Murray St(169), losing away games to Valpo and SFA? Note: I didn't use SD St(29) to make this more reasonable. Also didn't use Belmont(98), NM St(111), ND St(120), or Omaha(144).

New numbers: Record 21-10, SoS 20, RPI 21 with a total of 10 Top 100 games going into conference tourney.

[1972Shocker]

I might differ with you on throwing Bradley overboard (simply because they do have history and support - fiscal and fan base) and on the idea of adding UALR, but otherwise I love the idea of getting rid of the other weak, underfunded MVC privates, and adding SDSU, NDSU, and someone else who displays a commitment to funding and a strong fan base (both of which NDSU and SDSU bring more of in spades than the MVC's glorified D2 instituitions Loyola, Evansville, and Drake).

Bradley would have the opportunity to make that case. As would the others. If two of them can make the case they can and will be positive contributors to the strength of the Valley then the MVC would not have to add any teams.

UALR had an RPI of 42 in men's basketball according to WarrenNolan.com. The Shocks were at 41. Granted that is just one year and you also want to evaluate any school that would be added for their ability to sustain success over the long run. Bradley, who was at #304 has a long way to go. Bradley has been consistently in the bottom 3 on the Valley All-Sports average over the past 5 years. Bradley's best sport in recently has been baseball. The were around 111 in RPI this past year. UALR was at 142 which would put them right in the middle of the Valley.

The Little Rock MSA is around 730,000. Wichita's MSA is around 650,000. The Peoria MSA is around 375,000.

I wouldn't mind seeing some expansion to the South and West if possible. It all doesn't have to be North and East. If you are going to attract a SunBelt team to join I am assuming it would be one that does not play football. That pretty much leaves UALR and Texas-Arlington from the SunBelt as candidates. I am not saying those are the two best candidates overall but maybe deserve a look.

UTA is much larger with 37,000 students to 12,000 for UALR. Whether that and the much larger metro area of DFW is of any great value I can't say. Loyola being in Chicago is not automatically a particular benefit. Perhaps even a negative. Whether either school is a good match in terms of academic mission which Dr. Bardo has mentioned I could not say or evaluate.

[AndShock]

I think he qualified his research by pointing out the last 4 years performance was one of the main factors. Not saying I'd have them (and didn't in my grouping), but, if I was an outsider, I can see why UE was included given that period of time.

I'm still not sure what quoting my post had to do with your post. I think that says a lot.

I quoted your post because you think there are enough teams out there that want to commit to basketball that we would be able to form a new conference with. I don't think there is. If you want to get a list together I'm certainly willing to hear the argument. I think realistically there are about 6-8 of them and the Valley makes up 4-5 of them.

[ShockTalk]

I quoted your post because you think there are enough teams out there that want to commit to basketball that we would be able to form a new conference with. I don't think there is. If you want to get a list together I'm certainly willing to hear the argument. I think realistically there are about 6-8 of them and the Valley makes up 4-5 of them.

Rather than re-hash what I've already said, I'll give links to these posts over the last week. Yes, one you responded to, but I've been consistent in saying the best way is to have the Valley or the key Valley schools involved, so you might re-look at it with that thought.

You yourself just said you believe there are 6-8 realistic schools out there and 4-5 are in the Valley. My point is to find a way to get those 2-3 other schools, although there are other schools who would benefit themselves and the Valley with there presence over what we have now. I show that in one of my posts.

The Colonial, Mid-American, and Summit conferences had 5 teams total with RPIs 200+: 200, 202, 247, 262, and 274. 5 of 31 teams or 16%.

The Valley alone had 4 and overall, they were worse: 235, 239, 306, and 325. 4 of 10 teams or 40%. That is totally unacceptable.

The other 3 conference 200+ RPI schools have an average RPI (237) almost higher that the highest 200+ Valley school (235) (237 average vs 276 average). Something is seriously wrong with the Valley's approach to athletics and it had nothing to do with losing Creighton because the Colonial lost VCU, ODU, and George Mason and they're where the Valley should be.

#4292

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[AndShock]

I didn't see one name used as a potential long-term conference partner. I saw a few RPIs listed and current cream of the mid-major crop. This only works if you want to use some soccer promotion/relegation which will never happen. Instead of using 1,3, 5 year RPIs, you need to use 30 year RPIs. Since you don't want to use names I will just look at the Valpo fan's conference and say "no thanks."

[ShockTalk]

I didn't see one name used as a potential long-term conference partner. I saw a few RPIs listed and current cream of the mid-major crop. This only works if you want to use some soccer promotion/relegation which will never happen. Instead of using 1,3, 5 year RPIs, you need to use 30 year RPIs. Since you don't want to use names I will just look at the Valpo fan's conference and say "no thanks."

You feel 30 year RPIs are important, that would help Bradley, no time period is going to help Drake, Indiana St would probably rather use 10 years, and Evansville doesn't go back that far, so that looks hit and miss. However, since you said I don't want to use names, I'll just assume you didn't read the posts and end any chance of discussion.

[Shocker1976]

Should the P5 conferences withdraw from the NCAA, would this qualify as cataclysmic event that could result in a major reshuffling of remaining NCAA basketball conferences? Something like 160 schools in 16 ten member conferences; leading to a March Madness constituted of 32 teams bracketed in Four Regions. Winner of each conference receives an automatic bid and the remaining 16 seeds selected using a meritorious algorithm.

[VALPOfan]

I didn't see one name used as a potential long-term conference partner. I saw a few RPIs listed and current cream of the mid-major crop. This only works if you want to use some soccer promotion/relegation which will never happen. Instead of using 1,3, 5 year RPIs, you need to use 30 year RPIs. Since you don't want to use names I will just look at the Valpo fan's conference and say "no thanks."

I think 30 year RPI would include way too much irrelevant information - if the only goal is predicting which programs are best positioned for continued success in the coming years. Also the NCAA online RPI archive only goes back to 2000. That said, although I didn't rely on it much when creating my first potential conference, I did include ESPN's 50 year program ranking from 2012. This was a project that ESPN took on to rank the "prestige" of all programs with 15 or more years of D1 competition. It was a pretty comprehensive formula. You can read the full description of the data used here: http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/62654/introducing-the-50-in-50-series

If you really value the more historical perspective implied from a 30 year RPI average, I think this 50 year ESPN data is a pretty good stand it. It's top ten (Non-FBS, non BE, non A10, non coastal) teams would be (with their ranks):

Rank	School
28	Murray State
80	Wichita State
82	Oral Roberts
84	Southern Illinois
90	Missouri State
91	Illinois State
114	UALR
118	Valparaiso
123	Bradley
131	Austin Peay

[AndShock]

That conference actually wouldn't be bad and looks to have some potential. I think there are still some adjustments to make (UNI needs in for sure) but I like it at first glance.

[wu_shizzle]

If you really value the more historical perspective implied from a 30 year RPI average, I think this 50 year ESPN data is a pretty good stand it. It's top ten (Non-FBS, non BE, non A10, non coastal) teams would be (with their ranks):

Rank	School
28	Murray State
80	Wichita State
82	Oral Roberts
84	Southern Illinois
90	Missouri State
91	Illinois State
114	UALR
118	Valparaiso
123	Bradley
131	Austin Peay

I'll take it.