Russia-Ukraine War

[SB Shock]

Congress doesn't have the power to open up the spigot (and do away with regulations on petroleum), and restart the pipeline from Canada, so it will be almost 3 years away for the U.S. to have relief on petroleum inflation. That would put a big dent in our 7% inflation, and hopefully, we don't have stagflation happening anytime soon.

I would assume the spigot we would be talking about is allowing oil and gas exploration that has been put off limits by this administration. If prices get high enough, fracking will be more economically viable.

As far as the pipeline - stopping the pipeline didn't stop the oil from Canada. It is just being trucked and shipped via trains (which my cynical mind says are probably owned by democrats and their allies).

[SB Shock]

I don't think he invades. It would be an economic disaster and then how does he govern the country that doesn't like Russia?

Here is a comprehensive analysis of options and probabilities: ISW-CT-Forecast-Series_Piece-2.pdf (aei.org)

Good read. It would seem this is all posturing as in the long run this would seem to be a disaster in the making economically for Russia. This risk is "something" happens that forces unintended consequences.

[Shockm]

I would assume the spigot we would be talking about is allowing oil and gas exploration that has been put off limits by this administration. If prices get high enough, fracking will be more economically viable.

As far as the pipeline - stopping the pipeline didn't stop the oil from Canada. It is just being trucked and shipped via trains (which my cynical mind says are probably owned by democrats and their allies).

Undoubtedly, if prices get high enough, fracking will make some sort of come back. However, Biden has a plan to reduce oil output in the United States.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasd...h=5fc64f3a4548

It is not a revelation to discover that the Biden administration intends to phase out the U.S. oil and gas industry. But it is astonishing to see how quickly it is moving to accomplish this, while sending production abroad to producers in Russia and Middle Eastern nations whose commitment to reduce greenhouse gases is at best questionable.

The most recent action, revealed on August 11, was to implore OPEC and fellow traveler Russia to increase their production as demand in fast recovering economies makes up the shortfalls caused by the pandemic. Polling data in the U.S. about inflation caused in no small part by rising gasoline prices undoubtedly is a prime mover behind the administration request. These are the same producers who just a few short months ago (in early 2020) flooded declining markets in an effort to destroy the economics of U.S. shale oil production. The Biden team also has given a boost to Russian gas production by backing off on attempts to derail the Nord Stream pipeline into Germany, which increases European dependence on the heavily polluting Russian extraction industry. U.S. liquified natural gas producers had hope and reasonable expectations of building capacity to supply European absent the deal with Russia.

The Biden team got off to a fast start in its assault on U.S. and North American oil production by blocking the Keystone XL Pipeline project, which would have contributed to jobs in the construction, refining and transportation sectors in the United States. The administration also has put any new Alaskan production on permanent hold and frozen any new exploration and development auctions in the lower 48 states and offshore.

As part of its most recent initiative, the White House also asked new Federal Trade Commission Chair Lena Khan to spring into action to “monitor industry prices, review merger and acquisitions … and investigate market manipulation and anticompetition practices…” in the U.S. oil industry. The implication of the White House directive is that the industry has nefariously raised gasoline prices above levels commensurate with crude prices.

The sum total of these actions is to discourage any new expansion of U.S. production and any attempt to regain the levels of production achieved by 2019, when the United States became a major exporter of crude oil and refined products and of natural gas. Facing this juggernaut of regulatory action and threats of antitrust sanctions, along with pressure put on financial institutions to exit the fossil fuel credit markets, it is no wonder that crude oil production levels are frozen and remain 15 percent below those just before the pandemic. U.S. imports of crude oil from OPEC countries have already nearly doubled from levels before the pandemic and overall imports have reached levels not seen since well before the pandemic.

[SB Shock]

Good read. It would seem this is all posturing as in the long run this would seem to be a disaster in the making economically for Russia. This risk is "something" happens that forces unintended consequences.

U.S. believes the invasion is between now and mid-February based on troop movement. S-300 air defense was seen being moved into the theater.

Now one thing that bothers me is that there are a lot of videos on Twitter showing trainloads of equipment being moved towards Ukraine. This of course hurts operational security unless the Russians want it known to maximize their bargaining position.

If this was the mid-80's I would expect a war, but I don't see how this helps Russia in the long run if the shooting breaks out. A new cold war would break out and NATO would have a purpose again. Which is not in Russia's long-term interest.

[pinstripers]

Slow Joe could use the Obama approach, and send Putin "helicopters full of cash" if he backs off.

[N Crestway]

Good read. It would seem this is all posturing as in the long run this would seem to be a disaster in the making economically for Russia. This risk is "something" happens that forces unintended consequences.

Probably doesn't seem like a Russian disaster to Putin if economics is the only criteria. I suspect Putin thinks the West and NATO are so weak that eventually countries like Germany and France, especially Germany, will come around and lift many of the sanctions, like for instance Nordstream.

[wufan]

I hate the fact that we have allegiance to European countries via NATO. Europe can take care of themselves, and Ukraine isn’t even a part of NATO. We have no business with this crap other than selling arms.

I also hate the fact that we have to get involved with what China is doing, but we get all ours microchips from Taiwan and a ton of other goods from China. China makes things legitimately worse for Americans with their foreign policy. IDK why in the hell we sunk so much of our manufacturing into SE Asia and thought we would have cheap goods forever.

[pinstripers]

Putin has 100,000 troops at the Ukraine border. Big deal. We had 187,000 people invade from the south JUST IN DECEMBER. And those are just the ones we know about!

[SB Shock]

IDK why in the hell we sunk so much of our manufacturing into SE Asia and thought we would have cheap goods forever.

Greedy business (and politicians) who were more worried about making $$$ than caring about national security. They thought if they went to china they would be opening up a huge population base for their product. I'm not sure there is any U.S. business that really has had success in china for getting their products in except maybe Apple. But Apple is pretty much "China Made".

[Shockm]

I hate the fact that we have allegiance to European countries via NATO. Europe can take care of themselves, and Ukraine isn’t even a part of NATO. We have no business with this crap other than selling arms.

The only reason we help Poland, Ukraine, etc. are that they are young democracies who will help themselves but actually want to be a part of the West. OTOH, Germany doesn't do krap to help these young democracies (UK is a good partner, most not good partners, and Germany who does zero) and it is their back yard. Europe is pulling away from us economically too, and moving toward China, which is not good.

I also hate the fact that we have to get involved with what China is doing, but we get all ours microchips from Taiwan and a ton of other goods from China. China makes things legitimately worse for Americans with their foreign policy. IDK why in the hell we sunk so much of our manufacturing into SE Asia and thought we would have cheap goods forever.

China is not only passing the United States economically, in head to head trading. They export while we import, but China is moving into Africa, and South America and replacing us as the major economic partner in the future. Right now, China is winning (over the U.S.) economically everywhere. That is why Viet Nam and Indo China was the move for the Trump administration, and would have benefitted us if we could have gotten our companies to go there to manufacture their goods or bring them back to the U.S. Hopefully, in 20 years or longer, the United States Standard of LIving isn't going too far down, and it is the reason that democracies need to prioritize and work together economically, and stop prioritizing China. China is even trying to move into Mexico.

Trump's administration was working hard on this, but Biden like everything else, Trump, stopped doing working on manufacturing, and supply lines to democracies, Viet Nam, etc.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/t...latin-america/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/the-...in-africa.html

https://nationalinterest.org/feature...ca-china-73906

https://www.investopedia.com/article...us-economy.asp

[wufan]

The only reason we help Poland, Ukraine, etc. are that they are young democracies who will help themselves but actually want to be a part of the West. OTOH, Germany doesn't do krap to help these young democracies (UK is a good partner, most not good partners, and Germany who does zero) and it is their back yard. Europe is pulling away from us economically too, and moving toward China, which is not good.





China is not only passing the United States economically, in head to head trading. They export while we import, but China is moving into Africa, and South America and replacing us as the major economic partner in the future. Right now, China is winning (over the U.S.) economically everywhere. That is why Viet Nam and Indo China was the move for the Trump administration, and would have benefitted us if we could have gotten our companies to go there to manufacture their goods or bring them back to the U.S. Hopefully, in 20 years or longer, the United States Standard of LIving isn't going too far down, and it is the reason that democracies need to prioritize and work together economically, and stop prioritizing China. China is even trying to move into Mexico.

Trump's administration was working hard on this, but Biden like everything else, Trump, stopped doing working on manufacturing, and supply lines to democracies, Viet Nam, etc.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/t...latin-america/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/the-...in-africa.html

https://nationalinterest.org/feature...ca-china-73906

https://www.investopedia.com/article...us-economy.asp

China’s GDP per capita is third world. They have two assets: people and a lack of morality. We should let them do their thing and bring our products back.

[Shockm]

China’s GDP per capita is third world. They have two assets: people and a lack of morality. We should let them do their thing and bring our products back.

I agree with both, but wages in China are going up, and their upper and middle classes are expanding rapidly. But part of those articles, and many other articles that I didn’t send have to do with China gaining influence (both economically/trade and geo-politically) in Africa, South America, and Latin America (including Mexico on our border, and even Canada). Some of those countries have rich natural resources that our companies need to compete in technology and beyond. Coming back makes no sense if we just trade with ourselves. We need to be able to export to others if we want to continue a lifestyle that includes a strong middle class.

[wufan]

I just don’t care about other countries influence in other parts of the world. Maybe that makes me naive.

[Shockm]

I just don’t care about other countries influence in other parts of the world. Maybe that makes me naive.

What I said was ALL about jobs, so I wouldn't call you naive. Your job or economic well being may be secure forever. Perhaps you may be economically naive, or perhaps you do not care about friends/family/other Americans being economically prosperous around you.

[SB Shock]

The President Biden/Ukraine President Zelensky call has become a ****-show.

Biden tells Zelensky that Russian invasion is imminent and they are going to "sack" him. Zelensky told Biden "If you look at the satellites, you will see the increase in troops. You can't assess whether this is a threat, an attack, or simple rotation". He went further to say he is knows the details better there.

Zelensky asked the U.S. to put sanctions on Russia now. Biden declined. Zelensky told Biden to "calm down" on the rhetoric.

Zelensky also said Putin invited him to Sochi and he said he asked why? "Do you want me to ski there?". He countered with Odessa instead and offered up swimming in the sea.

Pentagon/Sec D are having a briefing at 1pm EST today to discuss.