Russia-Ukraine War

[SubGod22]

Isn’t Germany’s current energy policy to stop all nuclear and go to Russian natural gas? A war with Putin could turn the lights off in Berlin.

That sounds correct. It also sounds like the dumbest ****ing idea imaginable and that was before Putin/Russia started acting like this.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

At present Germany seems to be the stumbling block for a NATO response, not so much old Joe Biden. The new Social Democrat chancellor is wavering and attempting do his own reset with Putin. The Greens, the junior partner in the coalition government, are staunchly opposed to the chancellor's position. They want to see firm German support for the Ukraine.

However I still don't see how sanctions alone can be that effective in dealing with Putin. He can see the inherent weakness in the alliance, so for him now may be the time to make his move.

Sounds like a Star Wars movie plot.

[SB Shock]

At present Germany seems to be the stumbling block for a NATO response, not so much old Joe Biden. The new Social Democrat chancellor is wavering and attempting do his own reset with Putin. The Greens, the junior partner in the coalition government, are staunchly opposed to the chancellor's position. They want to see firm German support for the Ukraine.

However I still don't see how sanctions alone can be that effective in dealing with Putin. He can see the inherent weakness in the alliance, so for him now may be the time to make his move.

It doesn't look like it will deter the Russian. Reports is that Russia is continuing to deploy forward military units with their supply trains.

U.S. Embassy Kyiv has sent out a security report "Concerning reports of further unusual Russian military activities near Ukraine's borders".

From open reporting sources, U.S. is flying significant of recon and signal recon aircraft daily throughout the region. U.S. won't be surprised - but the window has basically shut for any kind of military deterrence.

[SB Shock]

Isn’t Germany’s current energy policy to stop all nuclear and go to Russian natural gas? A war with Putin could turn the lights off in Berlin.

Biden administration said today they have a "plan" for when Putin turns the lights and heat off in Berlin.

[wufan]

Biden administration said today they have a "plan" for when Putin turns the lights and heat off in Berlin.

I bet he’s betting on planting corn that can be harvested for biofuel in 6 months.

Or maybe we put Americans to work scooping up the human feces in SF, drying it, and shipping it to Germany to be burnt for heat.

[N Crestway]

Germany seems to be totally self absorbed at the moment. Foreign policy is on the backburner so much so that they are prematurely shutting down their nuclear reactors without taking into account how they would be affected by a future gas supply disruption. They can always get LNG gas shipments from other sources like the United States, however, but that gas would probably be more expensive.

Amazing that the second largest European state in area which is also in the process of becoming a viable democratic republic is about to go under with next to no response coming from the Western European NATO states other than sanctions. I suspect that lynchpin Germany doesn't have the will to keep their sanctions in place for very long... and Putin is probably betting on it.

[Kung Wu]

So the Russians have a couple of weeks yet to play around with.

If it is something more than posturing watch for:

2. Watch for a false provocation.

NATO/CIA is causing the problem in Kaz, eh? There's the false provocation you were talking about (albeit in a different country).

[WeWillShockU2]

I bet he’s betting on planting corn that can be harvested for biofuel in 6 months.

Or maybe we put Americans to work scooping up the human feces in SF, drying it, and shipping it to Germany to be burnt for heat.

LOL!

[SB Shock]

NATO/CIA is causing the problem in Kaz, eh? There's the false provocation you were talking about (albeit in a different country).

Some seem to think it was an over-reaction. They might have been concerned that a "revolution" might be getting started and wanted it put down decisively. Troops are now being pulled out right now.

But the State Department did release this statement today. So it looks like they think Russia will do something soon. If you see a "instigation" - look for something to follow.

No one should be surprised if Russia spreads disinformation about commitments that have not been made, or if Moscow goes even further and instigates something as a pretext for further destabilizing activity. As you heard from the deputy this morning, we urge everyone not to fall for Moscow’s continuing disinformation.

https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-january-12-2022/

[SB Shock]

Three things have occurred in the last 24 hours

1. In the talks, the Russians are complaining NATO troops in the Ukraine have crossed a red-line. Supposedly the Lavrov is being characterized as "f-ing Nuts". I have not watched it, but just reading commentary. So if someone is interested in this, might want to find it and watch it for yourselves.

2. Russian Reserves are being called up.

3. Units from the Far East have moved into the Ukraine theater of operation

4. Russia threatened Sweden and Finland (there are indications they may consider to join NATO if Ukraine is invaded).

[N Crestway]

Putin also believes he is engineering the breakup of the NATO alliance. I can't get away from the idea that Germany is truly the black hole in the alliance. The US under baby boom leadership has certainly done stupid foreign policy things over the last 30 or so years. But the US expectation that Europe take over more of its own defense was reasonable... unfortunately it just didn't happen.

[wufan]

According to business insider, only EU countries France (6) and Italy (8) rank in the top 15 in world military power. Meanwhile, Russia comes in at number 2.

[ABC]

Interesting article in the WSJ: Putin Wants NATO to Back Off but Is Achieving ‘Exactly the Opposite,’ Says Alliance Chief - WSJ

Everything Putin does to intimidate NATO is having the opposite effect.

"Since Russia in 2014 seized the Crimean peninsula and fomented separatism in Ukraine’s east, NATO has significantly increased deployments of troops and equipment in its eastern members. Other Russian actions since then, including suspected cyberattacks and operations in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, have prompted NATO to expand its presence in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which were once part of the Soviet Union, and in other former Soviet satellite states, such as Poland."

"That aggression “triggered the biggest reinforcement of NATO since the end of the Cold War,” said NATO’s Mr. Stoltenberg.

The alliance’s expansion has involved the dispatch of thousands of U.S. and allied troops to Poland and the Baltic states alongside new deployments of advanced weapons. NATO members have increased military spending by $260 billion over the period and are continuing to boost their military budgets.

“There are more U.S. soldiers in Europe now than seven years ago,” Mr. Stoltenberg said of Russia’s impact on NATO. “We actually do more together, in North America and Europe, than we’ve done for many decades.” "

[SB Shock]

Interesting article in the WSJ: Putin Wants NATO to Back Off but Is Achieving ‘Exactly the Opposite,’ Says Alliance Chief - WSJ

Everything Putin does to intimidate NATO is having the opposite effect.

"Since Russia in 2014 seized the Crimean peninsula and fomented separatism in Ukraine’s east, NATO has significantly increased deployments of troops and equipment in its eastern members. Other Russian actions since then, including suspected cyberattacks and operations in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, have prompted NATO to expand its presence in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which were once part of the Soviet Union, and in other former Soviet satellite states, such as Poland."

"That aggression “triggered the biggest reinforcement of NATO since the end of the Cold War,” said NATO’s Mr. Stoltenberg.

The alliance’s expansion has involved the dispatch of thousands of U.S. and allied troops to Poland and the Baltic states alongside new deployments of advanced weapons. NATO members have increased military spending by $260 billion over the period and are continuing to boost their military budgets.

“There are more U.S. soldiers in Europe now than seven years ago,” Mr. Stoltenberg said of Russia’s impact on NATO. “We actually do more together, in North America and Europe, than we’ve done for many decades.” "

The Army will love going back to training for NATO vs Warsaw Pact - it is more straightforward to train for conventional battle than COIN operations. Bring back Reforger.

[SHOXJOCK]

The Army will love going back to training for NATO vs Warsaw Pact - it is more straightforward to train for conventional battle than COIN operations. Bring back Reforger.

I was in Germany in 1973 with the Big Red One on Reforger. The Yom Kippur War broke out and guess who the Brass thought was most combat ready. We had live ammo and our m16's with us. And planes on the tarmac. Not a happy camper with less than a year left. But it all worked out.