Russia-Ukraine War

[SB Shock]

Russia buildup continues along the Ukraine front continue and is estimated at 175,000 troops. This is not sustainable for this time of the year, they will either need to go or redeploy back to barracks. The breakdown in peace talks has lead to the British Foreign Secretary saying:

We urge European Countries to search for alternatives to Russian Gas

The follow-on question is if Russian goes forward, will China use the diversion of the world attention to make a move on Taiwan.

[Shockm]

The follow-on question is if Russian goes forward, will China use the diversion of the world attention to make a move on Taiwan.

Not before the Olympics, but probably close afterwards

[SubGod22]

Russia is just postering in my opinion.

[SB Shock]

Russia is just postering in my opinion.

Definitely, posturing.

It is not unusual to have big training exercise before Christmas and then go back to garrison right before Christmas and do post-operation maintenance and refitting during the winter months. So the Russians have a couple of weeks yet to play around with.

If it is something more than posturing watch for:

1. Russian media starts preparing the country for conflict (meaning rationalizing why they can't back down)
2. Watch for a false provocation.
3. The build-up will accelerate instead of start reversing. They will need to deploy their logistical units, field hospitals, go to war ammo stocks.
4. Watch for a massive cyber campaign against Ukraine (and maybe even NATO).

[SB Shock]

The situation

Ukraine.JPG

[SB Shock]

Not before the Olympics, but probably close afterwards

That is definitely in their equation in whatever they do.

But some nations are already started to use the Olympics as a political tool to bash the Chinese. They might decide there is more to gain just to take Taiwan now and not worry about having the Olympics.

If I was the opposition and wanted to embarrass the Chinese, I would be preparing a bunch of human right video and such of their persecution of the Muslim community in concentration/work/reeducation camps and start leaking them. Force at least the West to pull out of the Olympics as a whole.

[ShockerPrez]

There is a lot more going on here and the U.S. might do well to stay as far away as possible. From trying to find out some more, it just looks incredibly messy and is nothing more than another chance for the U.S. to completely screw the pooch again. There are 2 provinces being steered into independence from Ukraine by pro Russian separatists groups. It all sounds like it just an ongoing breakup from the USSR.

But Biden is a Ukraine knob jobber, so I'm sure we can find a way to kill a few people for some reason or another.

After all, Democrats in power again, time to spend some ammo.

[Shockm]

There is a lot more going on here and the U.S. might do well to stay as far away as possible. From trying to find out some more, it just looks incredibly messy and is nothing more than another chance for the U.S. to completely screw the pooch again. There are 2 provinces being steered into independence from Ukraine by pro Russian separatists groups. It all sounds like it just an ongoing breakup from the USSR.

But Biden is a Ukraine knob jobber, so I'm sure we can find a way to kill a few people for some reason or another.

After all, Democrats in power again, time to spend some ammo.

Staying as far away as possible? I don’t agree. We need to make sure the Ukrainians have the weapons to defend themselves, and at least, make a Russian invasion a high human cost proposition for Putin. Obviously, no US military troops should be committed, but Eastern European democracies need to be encouraged. Also, if a Russian invasion happens, hopefully, European fossil fuel commitments with Russia will be discontinued, and Russian loans and Russian Oligarchal loans from the World Bank, and European banks should be halted.

[SubGod22]

Staying as far away as possible? I don’t agree. We need to make sure the Ukrainians have the weapons to defend themselves, and at least, make a Russian invasion a high human cost proposition. Obviously, no US military troops should be committed, but Eastern European democracies need to be encouraged.

I don't completely disagree. But Europe needs to do a better job of taking care of themselves.

[Shockm]

I don't completely disagree. But Europe needs to do a better job of taking care of themselves.

Most of what I mentioned was from Europe.

[SubGod22]

You added more Euro tall after I quoted you. Only thing you'd said at that point was the Euros needed to be encouraged. Everything else was about what we should do. I know you said no troops, but it read like we should still heavily finance everything. I'm not opposed to assistance, but it's beyond time for the Euros to take more responsibility as a whole was my point.

Their tax rates will go through the roof if they ever commit to defending themselves and we stop paying to do it for them.

[Shockm]

You added more Euro tall after I quoted you. Only thing you'd said at that point was the Euros needed to be encouraged. Everything else was about what we should do. I know you said no troops, but it read like we should still heavily finance everything. I'm not opposed to assistance, but it's beyond time for the Euros to take more responsibility as a whole was my point.

Their tax rates will go through the roof if they ever commit to defending themselves and we stop paying to do it for them.

Everything except the arms was about Europe. Maybe we need to force Europe to cut off the other things instead of encourage it. My poor choice if words. If troops are ever moved to the Ukraine border, they should Eastern European troops.

[ShockerPrez]

This has been going on for years. Ukraine, Russia and the Dobinsk sp? Province. Germany and France were/are involved. I'm not sure what good our dumbass state dept and especially Biden can do to improve it.

Putin isn't going to do ****. We need to stop giving that guy more credit than he deserves.

[SB Shock]

Putin isn't going to do ****.

That is what they said in 2014. Then Putin annexed the Crimea Penisula.

Now Biden has already said we would not go to war with Russia but would implement "severe economic consequences" on Putin's Russia.

The problem for Europe is Ukraine is a "NATO partner" - which is something less than a NATO member. So the European countries may be forced to act (which will draw in the U.S. somehow).

[ShockerPrez]

Well, regardless of how it went down, a large portion of Crimea is Russian. And if half the population wants to be part of Russia and not Ukraine, how do you resolve that problem?

I'm not saying that Putin isn't trying to destabilize Ukraine, but I don't think we're talking about 100% hostile invasions.