Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[SB Shock]

Wow! Deaths in the US down by 50% in one day! Where is this being reported? Oh that's right, it's positive news, won't be reported anywhere...

If you look at the data, there is ebb and flow (and a lag) where the daily death cycle every ~7 days (we are presently moving to the low point).

With this latest surge that started around June 16, we are now coming into the window where if we are going to see a surge of deaths from it, we will see it in the next 2 weeks.

[ShockerFever]

If you look at the data, there is ebb and flow (and a lag) where the daily death cycle every ~7 days (we are presently moving to the low point).

With this latest surge that started around June 16, we are now coming into the window where if we are going to see a surge of deaths from it, we will see it in the next 2 weeks.

And if we don’t?

[wufan]

And if we don’t?

For that answer, you have to wade into the politics forum.

[Kung Wu]

With this latest surge that started around June 16, we are now coming into the window where if we are going to see a surge of deaths from it, we will see it in the next 2 weeks.

Latest surge in what?

[JVShocker]

The geniuses up in Smel(L)A have decided that you cannot go to the beach or watch fireworks this holiday weekend, but it is ok to gather in large protest groups and that that is essential. Not smart...

[SB Shock]

And if we don’t?

If we don't then I guess it points to the possible hypothesis that are floating around

a. that the surge is related to more testing, getting more of the people who are less affected (or asymptomatic) by the virus, but still carriers
b. or the virus is weakening,
c. or we are learning how to treat it better....
d. Other?
e. All of the above

[SB Shock]

Latest surge in what?

Surge.JPG

[wufan]

I still think 50% + of the population is going to get this virus by the end of spring. As long as we don’t overwhelm the hospitals, I’m no longer concerned.

[Kung Wu]

Deaths aren't the proof you need, hospitalizations are.

Below are the weekly totals of new hospitalizations for the United States.

How else do you explain that while case load numbers are increasing (dramatically), the entire country has been declining in hospitalizations since April 18th? The only answer is targeted testing -- and it's the obvious answer -- and it's THE answer.




Why isn't THIS the news?! THIS is what America should be excited about. This is what America should be watching. This data is clean and not tainted with apples to oranges methodologies. This data comes directly from the CDC, for those of you that put the CDC on a pedestal.

This data shows that we added 33,000 new hospitalizations for the week of April 18th (a TON), however by week ending June 20th we have tapered down to 8,250 new hospitalizations across the nation.

It's not gone, but it's definitely fizzling out.

There are hot spots. Avoid them.

The rest of us? Carry on!

Why isn't THIS the news?

[JVShocker]

Deaths aren't the proof you need, hospitalizations are.

Below are the weekly totals of new hospitalizations for the United States.

How else do you explain that while case load numbers are increasing (dramatically), the entire country has been declining in hospitalizations since April 18th? The only answer is targeted testing -- and it's the obvious answer -- and it's THE answer.




Why isn't THIS the news?! THIS is what America should be excited about. This is what America should be watching. This data is clean and not tainted with apples to oranges methodologies. This data comes directly from the CDC, for those of you that put the CDC on a pedestal.

This data shows that we added 33,000 new hospitalizations for the week of April 18th (a TON), however by week ending June 20th we have tapered down to 8,250 new hospitalizations across the nation.

It's not gone, but it's definitely fizzling out.

There are hot spots. Avoid them.

The rest of us? Carry on!

Why isn't THIS the news?

[jdmee]

Deaths aren't the proof you need, hospitalizations are.

Below are the weekly totals of new hospitalizations for the United States.

How else do you explain that while case load numbers are increasing (dramatically), the entire country has been declining in hospitalizations since April 18th? The only answer is targeted testing -- and it's the obvious answer -- and it's THE answer.




Why isn't THIS the news?! THIS is what America should be excited about. This is what America should be watching. This data is clean and not tainted with apples to oranges methodologies. This data comes directly from the CDC, for those of you that put the CDC on a pedestal.

This data shows that we added 33,000 new hospitalizations for the week of April 18th (a TON), however by week ending June 20th we have tapered down to 8,250 new hospitalizations across the nation.

It's not gone, but it's definitely fizzling out.

There are hot spots. Avoid them.

The rest of us? Carry on!

Why isn't THIS the news?

The current network covers nearly 100 counties in the 10 Emerging Infections Program (EIP) states (CA, CO, CT, GA, MD, MN, NM, NY, OR, and TN) and four additional states through the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Project (IA, MI, OH, and UT). The network represents approximately 10% of US population (~32 million people)

In the name of full disclosure this data does not include hotspots such as TX, AZ, FL.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

In the name of full disclosure this data does not include hotspots such as TX, AZ, FL.

Yes, my initial impression is that the data is obviously incorrect. Let's see, there are 30 million people in Texas, 21 million in Florida and, what, at least 7 in Arizona.

Nothing like excluding 20% of your data and calling it an 'outlier'....and how many other states where the virus is increasing are excluded? I heard there were about 13. Seens like Cali ought to be included in the 'outlier' group as well, given the fact that the virus is surging in the greater Los Angeles area.

Any good statistician would at least include it in a separate set. And it should be advertised on their website.

[RoyalShock]

Due to how the virus counts are trending differently from state-to-state, I don't think looking at overall US deaths is going to tell us as much as if you look at them by state. FL, AZ and TX are seeing an increase in reported deaths.

[jdmee]

Yes, my initial impression is that the data is obviously incorrect. Let's see, there are 30 million people in Texas, 21 million in Florida and, what, at least 7 in Arizona.

Nothing like excluding 20% of your data and calling it an 'outlier'....and how many other states where the virus is increasing are excluded? I heard there were about 13. Seens like Cali ought to be included in the 'outlier' group as well, given the fact that the virus is surging in the greater Los Angeles area.

Any good statistician would at least include it in a separate set. And it should be advertised on their website.

I don't think anybody is calling those states an outlier. Those states just are not part of the COVID-NET reporting network. There is nothing sinister about excluding them. In fact click on the website Kung Wu linked and read the disclaimer. They are not hiding anything.


It is just data for everyone's knowledge and to use to make informed decisions for themselves. If you don't feel comfortable going to Dodge City, Kansas, then don't. If you still feel comfortable going to Los Angeles, then go, but do so safely and self quarantine when you get back.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

I still think 50% + of the population is going to get this virus by the end of spring. As long as we don’t overwhelm the hospitals, I’m no longer concerned.

This is perfect! At some point a large % of the population will be exposed to this virus. It is inevitable. You get it and for the VAST majority of the population, you get over it and move on. Not hard to understand. If you are elderly and / or at high risk, quarantine yourself until there is a vaccine or you are comfortable with the risk. It is up to each one of us to evaluate our risk tolerance and factors and act accordingly. I don't need anyone telling me how to assess my own personal risk. We shouldn't Titanic the entire country for a small percentage of the population. Sorry, but that is a fact.