WSU VERSUS INDIANA PREDICTIONS AND PREGAME DISCUSSIONS

[wushock27]

Something along the lines of "they going to learn all about Indiana".... Nothing major, but still not smart either

[The Mad Hatter]

A couple of questions for IU fans:

1. Obviously IU loves to take the three a whole lot (23 attempts per game) and they are good at making them (40.3% team percentage). My question is this, is that mostly set up by Yogi driving and kicking out or are there other major plays to get those looks (e.g. curling around double screens)?

2. Outside of three point shooting, how is IU looking to get offense. I know Yogi will attack on the bounce, but do you run much pick and roll, motion, etc?

3. On defense, IU fans have already commented about the struggles to defend the low block. How have IU bigs fared defending pick and roll action and guard penetration?

4. For all the defensive struggles on defense IU is actually top 100 in 3-point percentage defense. While I presume a large amount of that is due to running guard oriented lineups that are comfortable defending the perimeter, does that also reflect an unwillingness to double hard on the post in spite of the defensive problems there?

[1972Shocker]

Please do not say we would not schedule you in NonCon when we played 6 tourney teams in non con.

Okay, we won't say that. However, would you be so kind as to explain why Indiana and others of their ilk will not schedule us?

[das@iu]

Response to our D (or lack of)

A couple of questions for IU fans:

1. Obviously IU loves to take the three a whole lot (23 attempts per game) and they are good at making them (40.3% team percentage). My question is this, is that mostly set up by Yogi driving and kicking out or are there other major plays to get those looks (e.g. curling around double screens)?

Almost all guard kick outs - Yogi is very crafty and the other guards are good at getting into a good position to catch and shoot or drive behind and keep the loop going till an open 3.

2. Outside of three point shooting, how is IU looking to get offense. I know Yogi will attack on the bounce, but do you run much pick and roll, motion, etc?

Relying on defensive collapses and just good offensive players - Troy seems to be very scrappy, Johnson/Blackmon is a good 3ptr and driver - Yogi is just a scorer and the relief of having other shooters has really given him some freedom and let him play true shooting or point guard

3. On defense, IU fans have already commented about the struggles to defend the low block. How have IU bigs fared defending pick and roll action and guard penetration?

Poorly. We can recover with athleticism if you aren't a lot bigger but that often gets us in foul trouble. Our 2 best/smartest defenders in the post are Hartman and Yogi (sad but true) - Holt is coming on and Hanner is getting better (if he plays) but relies on being able to jump higher then anyone he plays (doesn't always work out)

4. For all the defensive struggles on defense IU is actually top 100 in 3-point percentage defense. While I presume a large amount of that is due to running guard oriented lineups that are comfortable defending the perimeter, does that also reflect an unwillingness to double hard on the post in spite of the defensive problems there?

Our guards are fast, like scarey fast - they are pretty good at recovering but we are horrible at helping - most of the year we've played a switching man-2-man then back into a zone - it makes most of us fans want to scream. Most of the time they just look confused on defense imo.

See response in quote

[das@iu]

also on this note:
4. For all the defensive struggles on defense IU is actually top 100 in 3-point percentage defense. While I presume a large amount of that is due to running guard oriented lineups that are comfortable defending the perimeter, does that also reflect an unwillingness to double hard on the post in spite of the defensive problems there?

Also some teams try to get into a 3pt shooting contest with us - I get a secret joy when that happens - it very rarely works out for them but once we start hitting I've seen it happen too much. Do I think that would happen with a good coach (like GM)? Nope.

[hoosierweebey]

A couple of questions for IU fans:

1. Obviously IU loves to take the three a whole lot (23 attempts per game) and they are good at making them (40.3% team percentage). My question is this, is that mostly set up by Yogi driving and kicking out or are there other major plays to get those looks (e.g. curling around double screens)?

2. Outside of three point shooting, how is IU looking to get offense. I know Yogi will attack on the bounce, but do you run much pick and roll, motion, etc?

3. On defense, IU fans have already commented about the struggles to defend the low block. How have IU bigs fared defending pick and roll action and guard penetration?

4. For all the defensive struggles on defense IU is actually top 100 in 3-point percentage defense. While I presume a large amount of that is due to running guard oriented lineups that are comfortable defending the perimeter, does that also reflect an unwillingness to double hard on the post in spite of the defensive problems there?

1. All drive and kick. This team is decent at making the extra pass, but it's all set up by penetration. Barely any off ball screening. The flip side to that is that Yogi is one of the quickest and best ball-handlers in America. Nobody has shut him down yet.

2. Again, almost all drive and kick. No motion. Some ball-screening, but it is mostly a sham because the only threat is the ball handler.

3. IU will switch everything. I suppose it is the one advantage to having no post player. One mismatch is as good as another.

4. It mainly reflects that fact that if you give a team a wide open layup or a wide open 3, most teams will choose the layup. With that said, Yogi can be a good on-ball defender when motivated and Robert Johnson is solid but makes typical freshman mistakes at times.

IU is good on offense for the same reason they stink on defense: Tom Crean sells his basketball soul for offense. He puts out 4 or 5 offensive minded players out there despite the consequences on the defensive end. Because of this, IU will have offensive mismatches available.

Teams lose to IU when they can't take advantage of the mismatches they get on their own offensive end. Have an off shooting night, and IU will beat you. Have an ok shooting night but IU is unconscious, and IU will win. But if you play smart defense, make IU work for shots, don't give up offensive rebounds (something IU is surprisingly decent at), and then exploit IU's obvious weaknesses on defense...then beating IU is easy.

One thing that kills good workman-like teams against IU is thinking they can fall asleep or coast for a couple minutes. I've seen this scenario a handful of times: work for 25 minutes and build the lead up to 9 or 10 points, decide to run up and down and play loose for a small stretch, IU knocks down 3 straight 3's, and it's a tie ball game.

[hoosierweebey]

Okay, we won't say that. However, would you be so kind as to explain why Indiana and others of their ilk will not schedule us?

The explanation IU fans get from our end is: it's all economics.

WSU can sell out their own home game vs. a nobody and make more money than IU is willing to pay them to come.

IU can fly in a nobody from the state of Oregon or Florida, pay them 100K for the beating, and make more than paying WSU to come in for a one time game or scheduling a home-and-home (i.e. losing 1 full game's worth of revenue the next year).

Hey, we lose out as much as you do. Watching IU play northwest southern greenbelt state isn't exactly a great use of my time or money. Us Indiana fans get excited about seeing big games as much as you guys do. Blame the NCAA for turning college athletics into a economic rat race among the schools.

[WstateU]

Yogi is apparently already talking ish on his snapchat for everyone to see... Good god I'm tired of playing teams in the dance from right around my home town

Oops, that might be a Boo-Boo!

[das@iu]

Well said hoosierweebey - I pay for a lot of tickets to see us beat teams that are as close to div 2 as you can get. We play 2 maybe up to 4 teams a year that aren't conference that are worth watching and most of those are in Tourneys and it sucks. I'd much rather play other teams in the top 50 in a one to one but it's a hard sell to the money people. MSU only does it cause Izzo makes them (and his are neutral courts to prep for tourneys) - but it is definitely the minority of big conference/money programs. They need to find a better way for the integrity of the game imo.

[1972Shocker]

The explanation IU fans get from our end is: it's all economics.

WSU can sell out their own home game vs. a nobody and make more money than IU is willing to pay them to come.

IU can fly in a nobody from the state of Oregon or Florida, pay them 100K for the beating, and make more than paying WSU to come in for a one time game or scheduling a home-and-home (i.e. losing 1 full game's worth of revenue the next year).

Hey, we lose out as much as you do. Watching IU play northwest southern greenbelt state isn't exactly a great use of my time or money. Us Indiana fans get excited about seeing big games as much as you guys do. Blame the NCAA for turning college athletics into a economic rat race among the schools.

Apparently that is the reason from your side. WSU would gladly set up a home and home series with the likes of Indiana if they could get it and were just a little ol' football-less basketball school on a limited budget.

[Dave Stalwart]

Guys on here arguing about resumes, rpi (worthless), and sos crack me up. Is the bracket up for debate still? Can they appeal the pairings?

The game is set.

--fwiw, I would love a home and home with WSU, Utah, etc.. Our wuss coach and money hungry AD are against such games.

I agree. When an Indiana fan came on here and mocked our resume I, too, found it funny.

[das@iu]

absolutely but look at it from the programs perspective (not saying it's right):
1) Crean isn't certain how good his team is going to be from year to year - lotsa attrition and subtraction every year (Vonleh, Zeller, Victor, Fischer, etc...) - he likes a mostly cupcake schedule going into conference play to pad his wins. Do I agree with this sentiment? Nope but it's pretty prevalent in college basketball. Obviously the Tourney still likes that number 20 - had we played a good team and got another loss would 19 wins get us in? Say it was you or UNI or Gonzaga or VCU - it doesn't seem to help much to have good losses vs bad wins. NCAA should throw out any wins for anyone more then 100 deviance in RPI - that may get people to play harder schedules but until they do something the risk vs reward is too low.

2) Money - we can get a 2 for 1 (or more) from a mid to small school - we make a ton of money and have more home games - hard to say no to that when you look at the numbers.

You can't blame Indiana for playing the hand they have when 95%+ of the teams that have that hand play it exactly the same way. You expect us to have more risk and make less money (over time) to give other teams a chance to get a better SOS? Sadly the NCAA will have to do something - the conferences and teams won't imo.

[The Mad Hatter]

also on this note:
4. For all the defensive struggles on defense IU is actually top 100 in 3-point percentage defense. While I presume a large amount of that is due to running guard oriented lineups that are comfortable defending the perimeter, does that also reflect an unwillingness to double hard on the post in spite of the defensive problems there?

Also some teams try to get into a 3pt shooting contest with us - I get a secret joy when that happens - it very rarely works out for them but once we start hitting I've seen it happen too much. Do I think that would happen with a good coach (like GM)? Nope.

I am actually a little worried about that.

On the year, IU takes 39.6% of their field goal attempts from 3.

On the year, WSU takes 35.3% of their field goal attempts from 3 and 19.3 attempts per game.

However, in our four losses here is the breakdown:

Utah: 30 attempts which accounted for 47.6% of our shots
GW: 27 attempts which accounted for 44.3% of our shots
UNI: 24 attempts which accounted for 50% of our shots
ISU: 18 attempts which accounted for 30% of our shots

So in 3 of the 4 games we have lost we have taken both more attempts than usual and a higher percentage of our attempts than usual.

That being said, the Kenpom adjusted defense ranks for those 4 teams are #8, #74, #16, and #63, so it may have had more to do with those defenses forcing us into those looks than getting careless.

Nonetheless, on the year we shoot more threes than our opponents and I am a little concerned that we occasionally do seem to get trigger happy from three, even in wins.

In this game, if it becomes a 3 point shooting contest, IU probably wins because they shoot better from 3 than WSU and 3-point percentage defense is the one defensive category they are better than WSU in. On 2-point attempts, WSU is holding opponents to 42.1% on the year, while IU is at 51.0%. On offense, WSU shoots 50.1% from 2 and IU shoots 50.6% from 2. WSU clearly needs to be working from 2-point range and trying to force IU to do the same. So IU wants it to become a 3 point shooting contest and WSU wants it to become a 2 point shooting contest.

IU also commits 0.7 more turnovers per game than their opponents, while WSU commits 3.9 fewer turnovers. WSU is +5.3 per game on rebounds, while IU is +3.2. The result is that IU averages just 0.15 more field goal attempts per game than opponents and 0.42 more free throw attempts. WSU, on the other hand, averages 6.4 more field goal attempts and 1.9 more free throw attempts than opponents. If WSU is able to maintain those numbers and get more attempts, it goes a long way to offset the scoring gains IU makes from 3.

[Hurley]

absolutely but look at it from the programs perspective (not saying it's right):
1) Crean isn't certain how good his team is going to be from year to year - lotsa attrition and subtraction every year (Vonleh, Zeller, Victor, Fischer, etc...) - he likes a mostly cupcake schedule going into conference play to pad his wins. Do I agree with this sentiment? Nope but it's pretty prevalent in college basketball. Obviously the Tourney still likes that number 20 - had we played a good team and got another loss would 19 wins get us in? Say it was you or UNI or Gonzaga or VCU - it doesn't seem to help much to have good losses vs bad wins. NCAA should throw out any wins for anyone more then 100 deviance in RPI - that may get people to play harder schedules but until they do something the risk vs reward is too low.

2) Money - we can get a 2 for 1 (or more) from a mid to small school - we make a ton of money and have more home games - hard to say no to that when you look at the numbers.

You can't blame Indiana for playing the hand they have when 95%+ of the teams that have that hand play it exactly the same way. You expect us to have more risk and make less money (over time) to give other teams a chance to get a better SOS? Sadly the NCAA will have to do something - the conferences and teams won't imo.

I don't blame Indiana at all. However, what annoys me are the people in the press and the idiot P5 conference fans who say we don't play anybody and don't belong. Either play us and shut up, or don't play us and shut up. You can't have it both ways. Regardless, it is frustrating, annoying, and yet somewhat humorous to listen to fans from P5 schools who have done exactly JACK $HIT compared to what we've done the last few years. Do you have a recent Final 4? Nope. Did you go undefeated and get a 1 seed the year after? Nope. Have you been in KenPom top 20 defense AND offense the last several years in a row? Nope.

[Steeleshocker]

absolutely but look at it from the programs perspective (not saying it's right):
1) Crean isn't certain how good his team is going to be from year to year - lotsa attrition and subtraction every year (Vonleh, Zeller, Victor, Fischer, etc...) - he likes a mostly cupcake schedule going into conference play to pad his wins. Do I agree with this sentiment? Nope but it's pretty prevalent in college basketball. Obviously the Tourney still likes that number 20 - had we played a good team and got another loss would 19 wins get us in? Say it was you or UNI or Gonzaga or VCU - it doesn't seem to help much to have good losses vs bad wins. NCAA should throw out any wins for anyone more then 100 deviance in RPI - that may get people to play harder schedules but until they do something the risk vs reward is too low.

2) Money - we can get a 2 for 1 (or more) from a mid to small school - we make a ton of money and have more home games - hard to say no to that when you look at the numbers.

You can't blame Indiana for playing the hand they have when 95%+ of the teams that have that hand play it exactly the same way. You expect us to have more risk and make less money (over time) to give other teams a chance to get a better SOS? Sadly the NCAA will have to do something - the conferences and teams won't imo.

I humbly disagree that good losses don't help.

See: UCLA and Texas