WSU VERSUS INDIANA PREDICTIONS AND PREGAME DISCUSSIONS

[Heinro]

I am actually a little worried about that.

On the year, IU takes 39.6% of their field goal attempts from 3.

On the year, WSU takes 35.3% of their field goal attempts from 3 and 19.3 attempts per game.

However, in our four losses here is the breakdown:

Utah: 30 attempts which accounted for 47.6% of our shots
GW: 27 attempts which accounted for 44.3% of our shots
UNI: 24 attempts which accounted for 50% of our shots
ISU: 18 attempts which accounted for 30% of our shots

So in 3 of the 4 games we have lost we have taken both more attempts than usual and a higher percentage of our attempts than usual.

That being said, the Kenpom adjusted defense ranks for those 4 teams are #8, #74, #16, and #63, so it may have had more to do with those defenses forcing us into those looks than getting careless.

Nonetheless, on the year we shoot more threes than our opponents and I am a little concerned that we occasionally do seem to get trigger happy from three, even in wins.

In this game, if it becomes a 3 point shooting contest, IU probably wins because they shoot better from 3 than WSU and 3-point percentage defense is the one defensive category they are better than WSU in. On 2-point attempts, WSU is holding opponents to 42.1% on the year, while IU is at 51.0%. On offense, WSU shoots 50.1% from 2 and IU shoots 50.6% from 2. WSU clearly needs to be working from 2-point range and trying to force IU to do the same. So IU wants it to become a 3 point shooting contest and WSU wants it to become a 2 point shooting contest.

IU also commits 0.7 more turnovers per game than their opponents, while WSU commits 3.9 fewer turnovers. WSU is +5.3 per game on rebounds, while IU is +3.2. The result is that IU averages just 0.15 more field goal attempts per game than opponents and 0.42 more free throw attempts. WSU, on the other hand, averages 6.4 more field goal attempts and 1.9 more free throw attempts than opponents. If WSU is able to maintain those numbers and get more attempts, it goes a long way to offset the scoring gains IU makes from 3.

Perfectly said. I think that is the game right there. When we just start settling and we're not shooting well, we're definitely beatable.

[The Mad Hatter]

OK...some of us visitors have humbly (and in some cases, not so humbly ;)) answered some questions about IU. I have a couple Q's about the Shockers if anyone cares to take a stab. I'm familiar enough with the basics, but I wouldn't mind reading some thoughtful opinion or analysis from the folks who are most familiar with Wichita St. basketball:

1. What's the main weakness of this team on offense and defense?

2. What's the one strength of this team that doesn't get publicized by the national media?

3. What does Marshall do best when it comes to tourney time? (e.g. teams always "peaking" a la Izzo, new wrinkles defensively, new sets, etc...)

4. What is Marshall's biggest weakness or flaw?*

Thanks!


*If you ask me this question about Crean, your admins may want to start upgrading their servers.

Since I asked the initial questions, I'll give a shot at answers.

1. Main weakness on offense has been inconsistency in the post and streaky shooting. Carter can be really, really good (and unfortunately for IU, this is the kind of match up he has tended to be good in), but he can disappear at times as well. The emergence of Shaq Morris has helped a lot, but it can still be an issue. Both on jump shots and from the free throw line we have had some weird inconsistency at times. The other weakness is that we struggle if FVV gets in foul trouble.

On defense, there haven't been glaring weaknesses. The good news for IU is that we do allow a decent 3-point percentage on occassion. For reference, here are the teams with similar 3-point percentages on the season to IU and what we allowed:

	Season 3%	National Rank	Vs WSU	Vs WSU Gm 2
Drake	40.8%	4	33.3%	20%
Utah	40.4%	7	42.9%
Indiana	40.3%	8
UNI	39.7%	13	71.4%	40.0%
Loyola Chicago	39.4%	16	55.6%	53.3%
Detroit	38.4%	35	37.5%

Nonetheless, on the season our effective field goal percentage defense is 45% which ranks #33 in the nation, so teams still tend to struggle to be efficient against us.

The other weakness is probably shot blocking. The past two seasons we have been #21 (9.6%) and #39 (8.6%) in the nation in block percentage. This year we aren't bad, but we are down to #67 (7.9%). We still tend to cut off the drive well, but it is a bit easier to finish around the basket than in past years.

2. I don't know if there have been many glaring omissions (in past years I would have said shot blocking as noted above), but I would say that the least publicized strength is either our ball protection or rebounding. We are top 10 the nation in both fewest turnovers per game and lowest turnover percentage. We are also #6 in the nation in assist to turnover ratio. This gets mentioned to some degree because of Fred, but it extends to the whole team.

Rebounding is probably even more ignored. We are #25 in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage and #50 in offensive rebounding percentage. Like shot blocking, this is down a bit from the past two years, but it still a constant strength on a Gregg Marshall team.

3. There are two things that stand out about tourney performances under Marshall. The first is that WSU tends to adjust really well to the style of tourney officiating, where they tend to allow a little more physicality. Two years ago against Pittsburgh, a team that prides itself on physicality, we pretty much pushed them around the court. The second thing is that we tend to run a lot of sets and looks. Marshall is willing to incorporate new looks, and generally our sets just seem to work better in the tourney than they have in conference play where teams have years of experience seeing your stuff. I think this is generally an advantage that teams that run more sophisticated offense have in the tourney over those who rely on more one-on-one. It is, however, more of an advantage for the second game than the first.

4. I'm in the fortunate position of having trouble identifying major weaknesses with Marshall. If I had to say one thing on the court it is that we are often really dominant in an aggressive press and Marshall sometimes has more hesitancy to use it than maybe would be ideal. Off the court, there are a set of people who won't like him because he can be abrasive and doesn't suffer fools lightly.

[Rlh04d]

They've also got wins against Maryland, OSU, Butler, SMU. That's more quality wins than WSU has quality opponents. You guys have what one quality win against UNI at home?

Every game you just listed was at home.

That's where the natural ridiculousness of trying to complain about our lack of quality wins comes in. Every quality win your team has was at home, or the virtual home court versus Butler. If we were able to get five top 50 teams to come to Wichita, we'd have five "quality wins" at home.

We have a better record against the RPI top 25, a better record against the RPI top 50, a better record against the RPI top 75, a better record against the RPI top 100, a better record against the top 150, a better record on the road, a better record at neutral sites, and a lower margin of loss in our losses to quality teams (vs. top 50: WSU 8.5, IU 10.4; vs top 100: WSU 6.5, IU 9.7). Bragging about having more quality wins is just bragging about having the name and being in the conference that enables you have more shots against "quality opponents" at home where you have a clear advantage.

Indiana isn't playing this game at home, so I could care less how many quality wins they have with the benefit of their home court advantage.

The only two "quality wins" Indiana has away from home are Illinois and Northwestern. And WSU has at least four in that category, despite far less opportunities.

The only way a team like Indiana won't have more "quality wins" than a team like WSU is if you guys are so abysmally atrocious you fall into complete irrelevancy. The conference you're in automatically gives you two times as many quality opponents as WSU could ever hope to schedule, even if your school chose to schedule not one single quality opponent out of conference. If bragging about winning those "quality games" at a lower rate and with a worse spread than WSU has is your only ammunition, that's pathetically weak.

So yes, I'll complain about your schedule over ours. Your only knock on us is out of our control: We can't choose to change conferences. We can't choose to not have Saint Louis and Memphis break three and four season NCAA tournament streaks respectively with the worst seasons either team has had in recent memory. But I can absolutely knock Indiana on the things that are under their control.

For the record, Indiana's six home games against RPI top 50 teams this year are one less than WSU has had in the last four seasons, combined. You were 4-2 in those games, and we're 6-1 in ours. Indiana's nine total games against RPI top 25 teams this year are nearly equivalent to the number WSU has played in the last three years combined, and required the Final Four run to beat it, yet Indiana is 2-7 (28.5%) in those games, while we're 6-6 in ours. Yet in the last six years we have a Final Four and a winning record by a mile against every conference in the country, including a 4-0 record against the Big 10, and have lost on neutral courts to two national champions and one national runner up by 4, 4, and 2 points respectively. If you think quantity of quality wins says anything more than the bias of college basketball scheduling, you are incorrect. Quantity of quality wins doesn't say anything more about our team than it has in any previous year ... and we've been damn good in previous years.

No worries with you regardless ... you disagreed with me and the rest of us respectfully. As long as whatever team wins beats Kansas, I'm going to be at least somewhat happy. But don't throw quantity of quality wins at us like that's anything in our power to control or says anything about our team. Our record against the top 25 and top 50 RPI in the last five-to-six years says that we do just fine when we get the opportunity ... but getting the opportunity is incredibly difficult unless teams are forced to play us. We've had six top 50 RPI teams willingly schedule us in the last five seasons, through no lack of trying on our part. If Indiana wants a home/home game, we'll be more than happy to schedule you ... Lord knows your noncon SOS could use the help >=)

[jdshock]

Bing's prediction software has us as a better chance (77%) to beat IU than KU (67%) has to beat NMSU. It also says we have a 3% chance at winning the whole thing over KU's 1%. It also has UK at only an 18% chance to win the whole tournament, which is significantly less than any other source I've seen.

Source http://www.bing.com/search?q=March+M...racket+builder

[Ricardo del Rio]

OK...some of us visitors have humbly (and in some cases, not so humbly ;)) answered some questions about IU. I have a couple Q's about the Shockers if anyone cares to take a stab. I'm familiar enough with the basics, but I wouldn't mind reading some thoughtful opinion or analysis from the folks who are most familiar with Wichita St. basketball:

1. What's the main weakness of this team on offense and defense?

2. What's the one strength of this team that doesn't get publicized by the national media?

3. What does Marshall do best when it comes to tourney time? (e.g. teams always "peaking" a la Izzo, new wrinkles defensively, new sets, etc...)

4. What is Marshall's biggest weakness or flaw?*

Thanks!


*If you ask me this question about Crean, your admins may want to start upgrading their servers.

1. Defense: Post defense, post defensive personal fouls. Offense: 3 ball makes, zone offense, free throw makes.
2. Taking care of the ball, press defense in opponent's backcourt, grit.
3. Mental preparation. There are no trembling Shockers.
4. I wish he trusted freshmen more, during the regular season, to get them ready for post season. Particularly, I have Zack Brown in mind.

Cotton's 3 ball makes have fallen off considerably this season. Wessel shoots a very flat 3 ball. If both are off, then it only leaves two 3 ball makers - Van Vleet and Baker. Van Vleet is only 6'. If tightly guarded, then the Shockers might only have one maker from 3 - Baker.

You should know tha Van Vleet shoots one hell of a halleajuh, rainbow 3 ball.

[Shocker-maniac]

Marshall: IU a 'Valley team' in size, not ability

http://www.indystar.com/story/sports...lity/24856891/

[DwShock]

Marshall: IU a 'Valley team' in size, not ability

http://www.indystar.com/story/sports...lity/24856891/

I didn't realize Kuntucky won the championship last year.

[jocoshock]

@GottliebShow: How good is Yogi vs Fred VanVleet. IUvsWichita

[AndShock]

@GottliebShow: How good is Yogi vs Fred VanVleet. IUvsWichita

What a *****.

[Shocker-maniac]

Do we have to post Gottlieb trash on this fine forum?

[ShockerFever]

@GottliebShow: How good is Yogi vs Fred VanVleet. IUvsWichita

That's fairly ironic.

[Shocker-maniac]

Twitter buzzing with Tom Crean to Alabama talk. From what I can tell he said something on his radio show tonight that kind of added fuel to the fire. I have no idea how legit this talk is.

[newshock1234]

I personally think if you put Gottlieb trashy tweets on here then that a automatic 1 day ban from this place

[Shocker-maniac]

I personally think if you put Gottlieb trashy tweets on here then that a automatic 1 day ban from this place

If I had any power in the SN empire I would immediately implement this rule. Alas, I am merely a pawn to the vast SN hierarchy.

[WuDrWu]

I like how Indiana is a blue blood, just like ku (in the last 20 years they are NOTHING like ku as much as it pains me to say it) and WSU is one of the best mid-major programs.

Listen jackass, in today's world, WSU is one of the best programs, period. And IU can take a seat in the back to make room for FVV's, Baker's and Cotton's nutsacks.

Effing PLAY ANGRY.