2014-15 Games of Interest

[Cdizzle]

Or course, it never helps when UNI shoots better than they would in an open gym. 8-12 from 3 so far.

[Dave Stalwart]

Or course, it never helps when UNI shoots better than they would in an open gym. 8-12 from 3 so far.

I just hope UNI is able to shoot as hot as the have lately in the Dance. They can really screw some things up if they do. If they pull a classic maneuver and go cold, it will be really annoying.

[wusphlash]

Probably not the best situation for the MVC to have MSU on ESPN two weekends in a row. Particularly against WSU and UNI.

[ShockerFever]

Interesting that Tuttle is still in a 20 point game with 4 minutes left.

Hmm.

[HenryMuto]

Question about Northern Iowa...I was looking their team over from last year that went just 16-15 and they have all the same players they didn't get some new recruit that has been a star or anything just the same players are all back so how did they go from 16-15 last year to dominating this year with the same exact team ? I know players get better from year to year but this seems surprising that they have made this big of a leap.

[wusphlash]

Question about Northern Iowa...I was looking their team over from last year that went just 16-15 and they have all the same players they didn't get some new recruit that has been a star or anything just the same players are all back so how did they go from 16-15 last year to dominating this year with the same exact team ? I know players get better from year to year but this seems surprising that they have made this big of a leap.

1) Last year Ben tried to play at a faster pace. That didn't work. This year he went back to a more deliberate pace. One more consistant with the players on the team.

2) They won early and have carried that confidence through the year. The psychology of winning is a powerful thing.

[jdshock]

Question about Northern Iowa...I was looking their team over from last year that went just 16-15 and they have all the same players they didn't get some new recruit that has been a star or anything just the same players are all back so how did they go from 16-15 last year to dominating this year with the same exact team ? I know players get better from year to year but this seems surprising that they have made this big of a leap.

It's also more than just players get better from year to year. All of their key players are seniors and Washpun is a junior. Big guys make big leaps from junior to senior seasons.

UNI is on a nice every-four-years cycle.

[1972Shocker]

Satruday Late Score:

Cal State - Fullerton 61 @ Hawaii 81

[1972Shocker]

Detroit 78 @ Oakland 83

[WuDrWu]

It's also more than just players get better from year to year. All of their key players are seniors and Washpun is a junior. Big guys make big leaps from junior to senior seasons.

UNI is on a nice every-four-years cycle.

Not just juniors and seniors but Buss is a 5th year senior and Bohannon, Jesperson and Washpun are all 4th year juniors, the latter 2 that transferred from P5 schools. Singleton, Mitchell and Tuttle are true 4th year seniors that have played a ton of minutes, especially Tuttle and Mitchell.

They'll probably get a 6th year for Buss if he wants it (no idea if he wants to continue playing or not) and with Morgan, Bohannon, Washpun, Jesperson and Buss returning, they'll still be solid but unless the youngest Koch or Friedman (whom I believe is redshirting) make a MAJOR step forward, UNI will go back to being a slightly above average Valley team and nothing more.

[jocoshock]

Question about Northern Iowa...I was looking their team over from last year that went just 16-15 and they have all the same players they didn't get some new recruit that has been a star or anything just the same players are all back so how did they go from 16-15 last year to dominating this year with the same exact team ? I know players get better from year to year but this seems surprising that they have made this big of a leap.

Jacobsen takes a lot of the blame for last year. He changed the UNI plays and defended trying to take advantage of last year's rule changes. They went back to their roots this year. It has paid off.

[HenryMuto]

Thanks for the insight everyone.

[HenryMuto]

I found this article interesting it claims that the chances to win a game when fouling or not fouling up 3 are about the same. I swear I have watched a lot of games in the past 10 years and I hardly ever see a team foul up 3 lose when they do it with less than 5 seconds left.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/yet_another_study_about_fouling_when_up_3

After reading more here they are counting ones I wouldn't count like a team fouls up 3 they make both FT's then the other team makes both FT's then they hit a 30 foot 3 for OT I would say that doesn't count against a team fouling up 3 because they hit a 3 point shot after FT's from both sides were made.

Another is the guy missed the FT went out of bounds off the defense so they got the ball back down 3 and then were not fouled and hit a 3. Again I would not count that one either.

So it looks like a couple of these have inflated the stats for fouling to be a bad thing.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I love KemPom's work normally, but that post is probably the one I would critique the most.

One of his "Insta-losses", a game where the team up 3 actually lost in regulation, was a situation where the foul was with 10 seconds left.

To me, 10 seconds is ridiculous to include here. That is way too early and nobody in their right mind advocates fouling with that much time left. 5 seconds isnt a 100% unanimous standard, but something around 5 seconds should be used as the cutoff for that type of analysis.

I still believe a well coached team should foul up 3 once the clock goes below :05.

[HenryMuto]

I agree I have said it over and over again that I would not foul until less than 5 seconds are left because of so many different variables. The only time I would want to foul is when I am forcing the other team to have to miss the 2nd FT. I don't want them making both with time left to where they can force a turnover or force the other team to have to go back and make 2 FT's just to get back up 3 as they could miss 1 and if there are 5+ seconds left then down 2 you can hit a 3 for a win.

Northwestern game today vs Iowa the guy hit an insane shot to force OT for Iowa. That caused some on the Ohio State board to question why they didn't foul. A couple on there insisted fouling doesn't make it more likely for you to keep the other team going to OT and then I came on and said in all the games I have watched in the last 10 years I have not seen many where the team has forced OT or won the game when fouled with less than 5 seconds left and the guy told me to prove it because he felt fouling made no difference either way so that is why I went searching for these sites and pulling stuff off the net. Also I remember you guys were discussing it here as well before so I thought I would share.