As of now, odds IB is back next year?

[1972Shocker]

Would people return to and enjoy a more successful season against lesser opponents in that scenario?

That's hard to say. The Shocks certainly drew well when they were a successful Valley team. But the world has changed post-Covid and with all the TV viewing options these days.

Not to mention the graying of the Shocker fan base that may are may not bet replaced.

[BostonWu]

I know it hurts you to say that "can't deny the team is improving"....

Well I'm not looking forward to our trip to purgatory. Nothing has changed. IB still doesn't have the makeup of high major D1 coach. He'll do well elsewhere where he should have started.

[BostonWu]

I told this to a few people over the weekend, and I will say it again.

Today is February 27. I am REALLY curious to know what we will know on March 27. Oh, to be inside Kevin Saal's head right now.

I envision a nuclear SN meltdown. A lot of folks are going to snap. I've already adjusted expectations.

[SB Shock]

I know it hurts you to say that "can't deny the team is improving"....

Whether this team is improving or not, it won't matter because next year team will be another completely different team. All the apologist will be "we are so young", or "we are so inexperienced".

I personally don't think there has been improvement as WSU is going to finish pretty much where the different predictive metrics suggested WSU would finish.

[BostonWu]

I saw an article on how they will handle football next season in the American. I have not seen how they will handle basketball. Anyone have that?

(The following is intended to get you thinking, that is all. It is NOT a commentary on what should or will happen, unless you think it is).


Let's say, for whatever reason, IB is the coach next year (there are several reasons this could be the case).

UH, UCF and UC are gone.

If the conference goes E/W 2/1 we might get Tulsa (2), UNT (2), SMU (2), UTSA (2), Rice (2), Memphis (2), Tulane, FAU, USF at home and Temple, ECU, Charlotte (might not play 1 team like UAB) on the road.

We would likely return Walton, Pierre, Pohto, Bell, Rogers, Abide, Ballard for sure and if we could find a PG, would probably be picked 2-3-4 in the conference. 11-14 conference wins at least.

Could it be kind of a Valley ++ scenario? Outside of Memphis, nobody takes basketball as seriously as we do. IB would easily be in the top 3-4 coaches in that league.

Would people return to and enjoy a more successful season against lesser opponents in that scenario?

I'd be very surprised if at least a couple of our top players don't bolt for a bigger stage. They see what's transpired this season.

[AndShock]

I saw an article on how they will handle football next season in the American. I have not seen how they will handle basketball. Anyone have that?

(The following is intended to get you thinking, that is all. It is NOT a commentary on what should or will happen, unless you think it is).


Let's say, for whatever reason, IB is the coach next year (there are several reasons this could be the case).

UH, UCF and UC are gone.

If the conference goes E/W 2/1 we might get Tulsa (2), UNT (2), SMU (2), UTSA (2), Rice (2), Memphis (2), Tulane, FAU, USF at home and Temple, ECU, Charlotte (might not play 1 team like UAB) on the road.

We would likely return Walton, Pierre, Pohto, Bell, Rogers, Abide, Ballard for sure and if we could find a PG, would probably be picked 2-3-4 in the conference. 11-14 conference wins at least.

Could it be kind of a Valley ++ scenario? Outside of Memphis, nobody takes basketball as seriously as we do. IB would easily be in the top 3-4 coaches in that league.

Would people return to and enjoy a more successful season against lesser opponents in that scenario?

No. And I’m assuming that you’re assuming that some of those teams are losing their coaches this off-season because I have IB at #6. Certainly not easily top 3-4.

[SubGod22]

I saw an article on how they will handle football next season in the American. I have not seen how they will handle basketball. Anyone have that?

(The following is intended to get you thinking, that is all. It is NOT a commentary on what should or will happen, unless you think it is).


Let's say, for whatever reason, IB is the coach next year (there are several reasons this could be the case).

UH, UCF and UC are gone.

If the conference goes E/W 2/1 we might get Tulsa (2), UNT (2), SMU (2), UTSA (2), Rice (2), Memphis (2), Tulane, FAU, USF at home and Temple, ECU, Charlotte (might not play 1 team like UAB) on the road.

We would likely return Walton, Pierre, Pohto, Bell, Rogers, Abide, Ballard for sure and if we could find a PG, would probably be picked 2-3-4 in the conference. 11-14 conference wins at least.

Could it be kind of a Valley ++ scenario? Outside of Memphis, nobody takes basketball as seriously as we do. IB would easily be in the top 3-4 coaches in that league.

Would people return to and enjoy a more successful season against lesser opponents in that scenario?

I still don't see us as a top 4 team in that scenario.

I see maybe 10 wins there, and that's if we find a PG that can run things.

Right now I would put North Texas, Memphis, Tulane, FAU and UAB ahead of us. Charlotte, Rice and Temple around us. I'd say we're definitely ahead of ECU, UTSA, Tulsa, SMU and USF.

I think we'd be in the 6-9 range in conference and again no post-season.

I also don't see the AAC going with divisions. They'll match up like they have been with trying to schedule better games for the better teams to bump their resume. Probably play 5 H/H with 8 single games for an 18 game schedule. Or a 20 game schedule with 7 H/H and 6 single games. I think the 20 game schedule is probably most likely.

[BAShocker]

Hate to say or think it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if every player who has the option to explore the portal, will do so.

Why wouldn’t they? It is almost a free option. I just hope we are not in this never ending doo-loop of roster turnover-which means with the current head coach and his system, it will take almost a year, or more, for the new players to grasp. (See this year).

I am hoping I am wrong though, and some decent NIL $ keeps certain players from entering the portal

[Stickboy46]

No. And I’m assuming that you’re assuming that some of those teams are losing their coaches this off-season because I have IB at #6. Certainly not easily top 3-4.

I haven't paid a ton of attention to the newbie but decided to take a look at the new structure and do the comparison with what WuDrWu laid out (HCIB + the returners mentioned).

Teams Better than us (NET wise) this year - we are currently 116 for reference:
Memphis - Will be better next year too
Tulane - They have no seniors ... so barring transfers will likely be better though could be a toss up.
FAU - Only 1 senior .. so barring transfers should be picked ahead of us (currently NET 19)
UNT - 5 seniors including the Top 2 scorers (and 2 of the only 3 players averaging over 6 ppg) - currently NET 50. I could see them taking a step back behind us possibly.
UAB - 6 seniors including 6 of the Top 8 scorers - Currently NET 57 - highly likely to take a step back behind us.
Charlotte - 5 Seniors but only 1 of their top 6 are seniors. Currently NET 104 so they would likely be ahead or on par with us.
Temple - No seniors contributing .. but McKie is on the hotseat .. could cause a ton of turmoil. I'd think if he returns and the team returns they would likely be predicted ahead of us (currently NET 127)

Question mark team - Rice - 175 NET but has one of the better recruiting classes coming in .. i think a couple 4 stars

Teams below us and don't really see a cause for a drastic jump up
USF - 151 NET but loses Tyler Harris
SMU - 200 NET
ECU -208 NET
UTSA - 302 NET
Tulsa - nuf said

So yea, i'd expect to be predicted in 5-6 range assuming status quo (no coaching changes and no major transfers which is unrealistic)

[TrackSuitAndTie]

I haven't paid a ton of attention to the newbie but decided to take a look at the new structure and do the comparison with what WuDrWu laid out (HCIB + the returners mentioned).

Teams Better than us (NET wise) this year - we are currently 116 for reference:
Memphis - Will be better next year too
Tulane - They have no seniors ... so barring transfers will likely be better though could be a toss up.
FAU - Only 1 senior .. so barring transfers should be picked ahead of us (currently NET 19)
UNT - 5 seniors including the Top 2 scorers (and 2 of the only 3 players averaging over 6 ppg) - currently NET 50. I could see them taking a step back behind us possibly.
UAB - 6 seniors including 6 of the Top 8 scorers - Currently NET 57 - highly likely to take a step back behind us.
Charlotte - 5 Seniors but only 1 of their top 6 are seniors. Currently NET 104 so they would likely be ahead or on par with us.
Temple - No seniors contributing .. but McKie is on the hotseat .. could cause a ton of turmoil. I'd think if he returns and the team returns they would likely be predicted ahead of us (currently NET 127)

Question mark team - Rice - 175 NET but has one of the better recruiting classes coming in .. i think a couple 4 stars

Teams below us and don't really see a cause for a drastic jump up
USF - 151 NET but loses Tyler Harris
SMU - 200 NET
ECU -208 NET
UTSA - 302 NET
Tulsa - nuf said

So yea, i'd expect to be predicted in 5-6 range assuming status quo (no coaching changes and no major transfers which is unrealistic)

It's really hard to predict what we will happen with potential coaching changes and portal happenings, but I will add a few comments:

• I'd be shocked if Andy Kennedy doesn't field a 20 win team at UAB next season. AK is a great talent evaluator and recruiter. He hit the portal hard last offseason and it worked out.
• FAU could be even better next season but a lot of that hinges on Dusty May. If he stays, likely a top 30 team. If he leaves, good luck...
• Grant McCasland has UNT operating like a mini Virginia in Denton. Talent-wise they usually aren't very deep, but manage to grind out postseason appearances every year.
• Rice's HC, Scott Pera, has not shown an ability to coach defense. They seriously suck at defending every season. Can't win without defense.
• Don't sleep on ECU, Mike Schwartz knows what he's doing and has a lot of support in Greenville.
• UTSA will 1000% have a new head coach next season.

[Shock Top]

Could it be kind of a Valley ++ scenario? Outside of Memphis, nobody takes basketball as seriously as we do. IB would easily be in the top 3-4 coaches in that league.

Would people return to and enjoy a more successful season against lesser opponents in that scenario?

You make it sound so great.... :-)

[RoyalShock]

I haven't paid a ton of attention to the newbie but decided to take a look at the new structure and do the comparison with what WuDrWu laid out (HCIB + the returners mentioned).

Teams Better than us (NET wise) this year - we are currently 116 for reference:
Memphis - Will be better next year too
Tulane - They have no seniors ... so barring transfers will likely be better though could be a toss up.
FAU - Only 1 senior .. so barring transfers should be picked ahead of us (currently NET 19)
UNT - 5 seniors including the Top 2 scorers (and 2 of the only 3 players averaging over 6 ppg) - currently NET 50. I could see them taking a step back behind us possibly.
UAB - 6 seniors including 6 of the Top 8 scorers - Currently NET 57 - highly likely to take a step back behind us.
Charlotte - 5 Seniors but only 1 of their top 6 are seniors. Currently NET 104 so they would likely be ahead or on par with us.
Temple - No seniors contributing .. but McKie is on the hotseat .. could cause a ton of turmoil. I'd think if he returns and the team returns they would likely be predicted ahead of us (currently NET 127)

Question mark team - Rice - 175 NET but has one of the better recruiting classes coming in .. i think a couple 4 stars

Teams below us and don't really see a cause for a drastic jump up
USF - 151 NET but loses Tyler Harris
SMU - 200 NET
ECU -208 NET
UTSA - 302 NET
Tulsa - nuf said

So yea, i'd expect to be predicted in 5-6 range assuming status quo (no coaching changes and no major transfers which is unrealistic)

I'm not sure about Memphis being better next year.

Davis, Williams, Franklin, Lomax and McCadden are all fifth-year seniors. That's four of their top five and five of their top eight point producers. I don't know what their recruiting looks like, but we've already seen that even highly touted Memphis freshman rarely match up to their hype.

[Stickboy46]

I'm not sure about Memphis being better next year.

Davis, Williams, Franklin, Lomax and McCadden are all fifth-year seniors. That's four of their top five and five of their top eight point producers. I don't know what their recruiting looks like, but we've already seen that even highly touted Memphis freshman rarely match up to their hype.

By better I was meaning better than us with HCIB and the known returners. Until we beat Memphis again, I'm just assuming they will find a way to be better. I expect Penny will land a coveted transfer or two.

[another shocker]

100%

[shoxlax]

UNT may be looking for a coach in a month.