Realignment Carousel Spins Up again (USC and UCLA to Big 10)

[TrackSuitAndTie]

Why watch the equivalent to semi-pro football when you can watch the NFL? It seems like the people making the decisions don't understand what makes college football special (tradition, rivalries, etc.).

[Stickboy46]

Another reason is that 18 year old boys would get killed (maybe quite literally) going up against grown-ass MEN.

I figured that was implied too lol .. Yes.

[C0|dB|00ded]

The NFL requires players to be out of HS for 3 years for a reason. They don't want to limit the risk of drafting players that can't make the transition. They want to see them play against higher level players before making bets on millions of dollars. The NFL would LOVE for there to be a farm system where they can only pay attention to a smaller handful of teams (moreso than already)

And like I said, once a stud player is signing multi-million dollar contracts and choosing to play at Ohio St. for 10 years, the NFL is in trouble. They'll sign the players out of high school and "red shirt" them for a while if need be.

The top college football schools can and absolutely do compete with the NFL for viewership bragging rights right now. If most of the best players are playing in college during their prime years (which is limited), the colleges are going to get all the TV revenue. The NFL will be dead then and it will seem like it happened overnight.

These colleges are seeing an opportunity to make more money than they ever thought possible. If the NFL is smart, they will get ahold of the reigns. They can either start affiliating with schools under strict compensation caps, start their own farm system immediately, or open the door for HS players to "join the club" as 4th string/"red-shirts".

If the NFL doesn't see a threat from universities potentially pulling away from the NCAA, they are blind. Ohio St., Alabama, OU, Texas, etc. are just as big of a brand as any NFL team.

[Stickboy46]

And like I said, once a stud player is signing multi-million dollar contracts and choosing to play at Ohio St. for 10 years, the NFL is in trouble. They'll sign the players out of high school and "red shirt" them for a while if need be.

The top college football schools can and absolutely do compete with the NFL for viewership bragging rights right now. If most of the best players are playing in college during their prime years (which is limited), the colleges are going to get all the TV revenue. The NFL will be dead then and it will seem like it happened overnight.

These colleges are seeing an opportunity to make more money than they ever thought possible. If the NFL is smart, they will get ahold of the reigns. They can either start affiliating with schools under strict compensation caps, start their own farm system immediately, or open the door for HS players to "join the club" as 4th string/"red-shirts".

If the NFL doesn't see a threat from universities potentially pulling away from the NCAA, they are blind. Ohio St., Alabama, OU, Texas, etc. are just as big of a brand as any NFL team.

A stud player isn't going to stay at Ohio state for 'multi millions" when that player can get 10s of millions (or 100s of millions) in the NFL.

and .. "the NFL will be dead overnight" .. is a take .. that's for sure .. wow lol

[C0|dB|00ded]

A stud player isn't going to stay at Ohio state for 'multi millions" when that player can get 10s of millions (or 100s of millions) in the NFL.

and .. "the NFL will be dead overnight" .. is a take .. that's for sure .. wow lol

It'll start with multi-millions. All college football has to do is fracture the talent pool.

Massive football universities have massive donorship and endowments. If an NFL team misses one ad revenue payment, they aren't paying the water bill.

Once you hit a tipping point, then yes, the NFL - EVEN the NFL -, can lose their grip.

This is all just theoretical fun. But make no mistake, big football universities are a threat to NFL revenue. I'm sure the NFL will take this seriously. But if the owners can't/won't get unified over a strategy, then they may very well seal the fate of their venerable league, at least as we know it today.

It's in their best interest to have things go back to the way they were. Their second best interest IMO is to get a hard cap on what players can be paid and/or keep the NCAA involved. The second OU drops a $10M, 5yr contract on their hometown favorite (with plenty of local perks on top - like only a wealthy alumni base can offer), the death knell will begin swinging. They can't let this first contract ever happen.

[C0|dB|00ded]

Perhaps universities can privatize their football programs and sell them to NFL clubs. Total bastardization, but then the NFL would control salaries. This would offer a little cost stabilization to the university, and offer the NFL a legit farm system. UT jerseys would have a little Dallas Cowboys patch on them.

This all sounds so sick... and strangely American. Unbridled greed.

[Stickboy46]

[Stickboy46]

It'll start with multi-millions. All college football has to do is fracture the talent pool.

Massive football universities have massive donorship and endowments. If an NFL team misses one ad revenue payment, they aren't paying the water bill.

Once you hit a tipping point, then yes, the NFL - EVEN the NFL -, can lose their grip.

This is all just theoretical fun. But make no mistake, big football universities are a threat to NFL revenue. I'm sure the NFL will take this seriously. But if the owners can't/won't get unified over a strategy, then they may very well seal the fate of their venerable league, at least as we know it today.

It's in their best interest to have things go back to the way they were. Their second best interest IMO is to get a hard cap on what players can be paid and/or keep the NCAA involved. The second OU drops a $10M, 5yr contract on their hometown favorite (with plenty of local perks on top - like only a wealthy alumni base can offer), the death knell will begin swinging. They can't let this first contract ever happen.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-tv-rights-deals-explained/z4rlycwog3jz1f6pqdqoegbxf

NFL has 10 years at 100 billion not million . but BILLION dollar of TV contracts locked down. Amazon alone pays 1 Billion a year for one game a week. Let that sink in .. 1 billion a year for 1 game a week.

By comparison, The big 10 gets roughly 1 billion a year for every game from every team in conference in every single sport.

There is a MASSIVE gulf in the value of NFL vs NCAA sports.

[C0|dB|00ded]

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-tv-rights-deals-explained/z4rlycwog3jz1f6pqdqoegbxf

NFL has 10 years at 100 billion not million . but BILLION dollar of TV contracts locked down. Amazon alone pays 1 Billion a year for one game a week. Let that sink in .. 1 billion a year for 1 game a week.

By comparison, The big 10 gets roughly 1 billion a year for every game from every team in conference in every single sport.

There is a MASSIVE gulf in the value of NFL vs NCAA sports.

Yes, that's today. But professional college football was just born (officially). They have nowhere to go but up.

[C0|dB|00ded]

Why watch the equivalent to semi-pro football when you can watch the NFL? It seems like the people making the decisions don't understand what makes college football special (tradition, rivalries, etc.).

The question is: how many people want to see OSU beat Michigan compared to the Bengals or the Browns beat... whomever.

In professional college football, the fans (right now) can actually buy their players. Eat your heart out fantasy football.

[Stickboy46]

The question is: how many people want to see OSU beat Michigan compared to the Bengals or the Browns beat... whomever.

In professional college football, the fans (right now) can actually buy their players. Eat your heart out fantasy football.

The highest rated College game in a decade was as you stated OSU vs Michigan last year. It drew 17 million viewers.

The AVERAGE NFL game draws 16.7 million viewers.

Highest viewers in in 2022? 42.1 million - Giants vs Cowboys in week 12.


For the two you mentioned

Average viewers for Bengals - 19.9 Million
Average viewers for Bears - 15.7 Million

Highest average viewers in NFL - oddly Detroit at 27 Million
Worst average viewers in the NFL - Atlanta - 6.8 Million

Now for college
Average viewers for OSU - 5.8 million (highest in the NCAA)
Average viewers for Michigan - 4.3 million

So yea .. still a MASSIVE gap ...

https://www.sportico.com/business/media/2023/nfl-tv-ratings-report-cbs-fox-nbc-1234701217/

[C0|dB|00ded]

The highest rated College game in a decade was as you stated OSU vs Michigan last year. It drew 17 million viewers.

The AVERAGE NFL game draws 16.7 million viewers.

Highest viewers in in 2022? 42.1 million - Giants vs Cowboys in week 12.


For the two you mentioned

Average viewers for Bengals - 19.9 Million
Average viewers for Bears - 15.7 Million

Highest average viewers in NFL - oddly Detroit at 27 Million
Worst average viewers in the NFL - Atlanta - 6.8 Million

Now for college
Average viewers for OSU - 5.8 million (highest in the NCAA)
Average viewers for Michigan - 4.3 million

So yea .. still a MASSIVE gap ...

https://www.sportico.com/business/media/2023/nfl-tv-ratings-report-cbs-fox-nbc-1234701217/

Very close! Particularly when you consider 100B to 1B pay differential. Start having the college product increase in quality while the NFL decreases and the viewership gap will close.

Remember, we are talking the FUTURE... not a snapshot of today. Tomorrow never stays the same. Markets are fluid.

[C0|dB|00ded]

A stud player isn't going to stay at Ohio state for 'multi millions" when that player can get 10s of millions (or 100s of millions) in the NFL.

and .. "the NFL will be dead overnight" .. is a take .. that's for sure .. wow lol

Something to consider...

Wichita State is currently paying players more salary than they will ever earn in the NBA. That will REALLY be the case in NCAA football now. College football players do not sign 100M contracts straight out of college. They have to earn those massive paydays. Well... if Joe Sooner is offered 3M to play 4 more years, and his draft status is kind of iffy... maybe he never gets that 100M payday. Maybe he settles for a single bird instead of the 100 in the bush. You know that will happen a LOT.

Professional college football cannot be good for the NFL without stringent income caps.

Now... if a college player can enter the draft, EVEN play in the NFL, then return to their college and play for pay... that would help the NFL greatly. In that case, every player will take their shot, then go back "home", if their schools take them back.

[SubGod22]

Something to consider...

Wichita State is currently paying players more salary than they will ever earn in the NBA. That will REALLY be the case in NCAA football now. College football players do not sign 100M contracts straight out of college. They have to earn those massive paydays. Well... if Joe Sooner is offered 3M to play 4 more years, and his draft status is kind of iffy... maybe he never gets that 100M payday. Maybe he settles for a single bird instead of the 100 in the bush. You know that will happen a LOT.

Professional college football cannot be good for the NFL without stringent income caps.

Now... if a college player can enter the draft, EVEN play in the NFL, then return to their college and play for pay... that would help the NFL greatly. In that case, every player will take their shot, then go back "home", if their schools take them back.

Have you hit your head recently?

[Stickboy46]

Back on topic, sounds like Stanford and Cal expected to get an invite. It's still unclear for SMU. That's gonna be awkward for SMU if they only take the other 2